Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: OG vs Heroic - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77a4bad06e50012edb12fef9d59239acdeb4bd965c0162cdd13d96c3068e7121
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- OGof OG, Heroic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $78,280
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $87,818
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,280 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x00d6…b2e0backed OG | 68c | 17,858$12,209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,649.19 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac0d…b006backed Heroic | 52c | 15,690$8,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,180.22 | 106 | 61.3%65 W · 41 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ad…be8cbacked Heroic | 52c | 15,509$8,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,040.36 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…5695backed OG | 54c | 5,551$2,993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,557.65 | 190 | 47.9%91 W · 99 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked OG | 46c | 4,877$2,242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,634.54 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe48…5895backed OG | 56c | 3,778$2,113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,665.66 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Heroic | 1c | 3,527$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.27 | 804 | 43.9%353 W · 451 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f071backed OG | 80c | 3,058$2,435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.68 | 344 | 68.9%237 W · 107 L | +26.3wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x31b5…6128backed OG | 49c | 2,865$1,418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,446.8 | 180 | 75%135 W · 45 L | +18.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Heroic | 48c | 2,807$1,337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,337.3 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked Heroic | 61c | 2,577$1,565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,564.96 | 166 | 65.7%109 W · 57 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…68d2backed OG | 45c | 1,994$892 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,101.74 | 179 | 50.3%90 W · 89 L | +14.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3103…d804backed Heroic | 3c | 1,400$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 86 | 27.9%24 W · 62 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9571…1d98backed OG | 72c | 1,183$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.98 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0caf…91adbacked Heroic | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | -9.7wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb78f…3a77backed Heroic | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed OG | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 557 | 51.7%288 W · 269 L | +16.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2d…2b35backed Heroic | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590 | 536 | 52.6%282 W · 254 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec61…4a2ebacked OG | 35c | 999.99$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.99 | 109 | 41.3%45 W · 64 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8245…4f87backed OG | 42c | 976.09$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.13 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d96…d524backed OG | 52c | 958.31$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.99 | 269 | 57.6%155 W · 114 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked OG | 48c | 954.41$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.93 | 218 | 47.2%103 W · 115 L | +16.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed OG | 46c | 929.37$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.17 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a28…41edbacked OG | 52c | 814.42$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.92 | 213 | 50.7%108 W · 105 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed OG | 50c | 800$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.6 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcb…b05abacked OG | 48c | 800$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416 | 380 | 49.2%187 W · 193 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +168.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Heroic | 43c | 707.11$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.28 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdab0…2fe9backed Heroic | 57c | 526.32$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 62cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb116…940abacked OG | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xacf6…41fcbacked OG | 48c | 473.02$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.97 | 606 | 46.9%284 W · 322 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba9…0765backed OG | 68c | 407.68$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.59 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…1c68backed Heroic | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 641 | 49.9%320 W · 321 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd3…4191backed Heroic | 41c | 350$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Heroic | 58c | 345.41$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 610 | 57.9%353 W · 257 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e08…3d14backed Heroic | 54c | 334.63$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.27 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…6fe0backed Heroic | 62c | 303.56$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.88 | 275 | 48%132 W · 143 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed OG | 48c | 299.02$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.88 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Heroic | 68c | 294.18$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.04 | 234 | 65%152 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c6…72a8backed OG | 44c | 292.17$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.17 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…a8cfbacked Heroic | 53c | 283.02$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 353 | 70%247 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Heroic | 65c | 225$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.25 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Heroic | 18c | 210.08$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.78 | 145 | 37.2%54 W · 91 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f04…5fc4backed OG | 48c | 209$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.68 | 315 | 45.4%143 W · 172 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d60…be72backed Heroic | 59c | 207.03$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.05 | 199 | 49.2%98 W · 101 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8942…9ea9backed OG | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91a8…2db7backed OG | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 56 | 75%42 W · 14 L | +8.3wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed OG | 51c | 195.11$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.1 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked OG | 48c | 167.83$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.96 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked Heroic | 61c | 164.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5a…56c0backed OG | 47c | 130$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.4 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked OG | 49c | 127.04$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.19 | 80 | 66.3%53 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8e…5ad4backed OG | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e66…8ca1backed OG | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…a26fbacked OG | 54c | 93.24$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.89 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa17f…19c5backed OG | 45c | 84.44$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.44 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb358…122cbacked Heroic | 55c | 82.73$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -10.2wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fb…793ebacked Heroic | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62b7…f260backed Heroic | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 207 | 35.3%73 W · 134 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c13…c543backed OG | 75c | 58.98$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…4ab2backed OG | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf459…7a53backed OG | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 102 | 60.8%62 W · 40 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3703…2795backed Heroic | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 153 | 41.2%63 W · 90 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x047a…941ebacked OG | 51c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 236 | 40.7%96 W · 140 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Heroic | 42c | 40.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…ed28backed Heroic | 51c | 39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 605 | 52.6%318 W · 287 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…74c9backed OG | 52c | 29.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c8a…d30fbacked Heroic | 52c | 29.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a5d…99ebbacked OG | 41c | 26.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 146 | 68.5%100 W · 46 L | +14.3wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5f6fbacked Heroic | 55c | 19.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -40%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: OG vs Heroic - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: OG vs Heroic (BO3)OG won
- Dota 2: OG vs Heroic - Game 1 WinnerOG won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.