TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Spread: Iowa State Cyclones (-4.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Tennessee Volunteersof Iowa State Cyclones, Tennessee Volunteers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$60,121
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$61,524

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,121 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfed8…4388backed Tennessee Volunteers56c29,583$16,635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,947.492653.8%14 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Iowa State Cyclones44c13,620$5,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,939.95,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Tennessee Volunteers54c9,998$5,399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,599.0736944.2%163 W · 206 L-19.0wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-13.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Iowa State Cyclones43c9,231$3,972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,972.382,89650%1,448 W · 1,448 L+71.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Iowa State Cyclones45c5,772$2,597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,597.2546246.5%215 W · 247 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Iowa State Cyclones45c5,453$2,468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,468.185,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Iowa State Cyclones43c4,000$1,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,719.9910739.3%42 W · 65 L-8.5wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-17%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Tennessee Volunteers57c3,297$1,878 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,418.841,39752.7%736 W · 661 L+26.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Tennessee Volunteers58c2,691$1,551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,140.4815858.2%92 W · 66 L+10.4wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Tennessee Volunteers56c2,286$1,279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,006.51,15248.9%563 W · 589 L+3.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Iowa State Cyclones45c2,023$901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900.5618744.9%84 W · 103 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a61…5781backed Tennessee Volunteers61c1,907$1,159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$748.942657.7%15 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Tennessee Volunteers56c1,829$1,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$798.6592246%424 W · 498 L+1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Iowa State Cyclones39c1,583$622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622.1950548.9%247 W · 258 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Iowa State Cyclones41c1,500$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61589146.2%412 W · 479 L+9.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe33f…e413backed Iowa State Cyclones45c999.99$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.9937246.2%172 W · 200 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Iowa State Cyclones18c981.18$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.4334343.4%149 W · 194 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa070…1af3backed Iowa State Cyclones46c760.33$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.752462.5%15 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+11.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Iowa State Cyclones46c693.91$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.216147.2%76 W · 85 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Iowa State Cyclones42c594$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.486549.2%32 W · 33 L+5.7wins+0.09per pick40cpaid+12.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Iowa State Cyclones46c547.89$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.038246.3%38 W · 44 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Iowa State Cyclones46c537.74$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.3619958.3%116 W · 83 L+15.7wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9b89…99e2backed Iowa State Cyclones46c488.71$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.5721342.3%90 W · 123 L-6.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4923…6866backed Iowa State Cyclones45c400$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18050%0 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8c50…2de6backed Iowa State Cyclones45c369$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.057258.3%42 W · 30 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe60c…d2e2backed Iowa State Cyclones45c308$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.66261.3%38 W · 24 L+5.4wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+16.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf1f0…c9e4backed Iowa State Cyclones45c308$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.622954.1%124 W · 105 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x917e…eed9backed Iowa State Cyclones42c300$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1263030%9 W · 21 L-3.7wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-40.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x068c…582ebacked Iowa State Cyclones46c299.55$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.792462.5%15 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed Iowa State Cyclones47c250$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.56437.5%24 W · 40 L-5.4wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-20.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc42c…42a1backed Tennessee Volunteers53c246.83$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.0163551.5%327 W · 308 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x18c6…a4dbbacked Iowa State Cyclones46c244.85$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.632268.2%15 W · 7 L+3.6wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+23.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa6df…588cbacked Iowa State Cyclones45c217$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.656152.5%32 W · 29 L-0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cec…5326backed Iowa State Cyclones44c200$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8785248.8%416 W · 436 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d24…9c89backed Iowa State Cyclones45c185.99$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.697354.8%40 W · 33 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf48d…fe48backed Tennessee Volunteers54c185.37$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.2712649.2%62 W · 64 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc23…8283backed Tennessee Volunteers54c183.58$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.4411844.1%52 W · 66 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xea4b…dedebacked Tennessee Volunteers55c181.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.649947.5%47 W · 52 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Tennessee Volunteers50c176.05$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.9725145.8%115 W · 136 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2373…a1f3backed Iowa State Cyclones46c175.91$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.927749.4%38 W · 39 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26dd…0249backed Iowa State Cyclones46c173.69$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.96251.6%32 W · 30 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82de…1337backed Iowa State Cyclones46c173.69$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.96459.4%38 W · 26 L+6.4wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+16.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Tennessee Volunteers54c165.22$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7679448.9%388 W · 406 L+1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d9…c125backed Iowa State Cyclones46c161.63$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.355561.8%34 W · 21 L+5.4wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+16.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x78ba…0b74backed Iowa State Cyclones46c161.63$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.351471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.9wins+0.21per pick51cpaid+37.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8a0d…82c9backed Iowa State Cyclones45c158$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.13141.9%13 W · 18 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-21.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x77a7…bb11backed Iowa State Cyclones45c155$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.753754.1%20 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x342d…608cbacked Iowa State Cyclones45c155$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.75875%6 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+60.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2185…b40cbacked Iowa State Cyclones45c155$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.754961.2%30 W · 19 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1e4a…1a5cbacked Iowa State Cyclones46c150.85$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.392948.3%14 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Tennessee Volunteers80c150.58$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.589254.3%50 W · 42 L-0.4wins0.00per pick55cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Iowa State Cyclones46c148.94$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.674,84852.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L+139.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0922…d953backed Iowa State Cyclones46c138.98$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.93333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-54.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x08a1…10dcbacked Iowa State Cyclones46c129.3$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.482157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+14.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5e0…457fbacked Iowa State Cyclones45c125$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.252650%13 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9722…3e81backed Iowa State Cyclones46c120.68$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.51757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x313d…6f98backed Iowa State Cyclones45c111$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.956767.2%45 W · 22 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x843a…2687backed Iowa State Cyclones46c107.75$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.577450%37 W · 37 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c56…0615backed Iowa State Cyclones30c103.39$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.779452.1%49 W · 45 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b70…3102backed Tennessee Volunteers54c100.97$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.449256.5%52 W · 40 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc681…bcd8backed Iowa State Cyclones48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xedf1…5776backed Iowa State Cyclones52c95.31$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.56771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick63cpaid+16.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x635b…1013backed Iowa State Cyclones45c92.19$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.791060%6 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+19.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Tennessee Volunteers55c91.2$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.0441554.2%225 W · 190 L-0.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2502…87e5backed Iowa State Cyclones46c87.75$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.331553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfab0…e0f5backed Iowa State Cyclones46c84.05$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.663458.8%20 W · 14 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+10.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7133…69d6backed Iowa State Cyclones45c79$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.554953.1%26 W · 23 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c5…b613backed Iowa State Cyclones45c76$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.24959.2%29 W · 20 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5cc1…57a1backed Iowa State Cyclones45c70$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Iowa State Cyclones46c66.2$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4564647.5%307 W · 339 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe16…5fa2backed Iowa State Cyclones45c64$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.81369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+30.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbf25…636dbacked Iowa State Cyclones46c62.23$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.63944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a46…196cbacked Iowa State Cyclones46c62.23$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.631030%3 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick48cpaid-51.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Iowa State Cyclones30c60.56$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.064,38240.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L+23.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b8c…31c3backed Iowa State Cyclones44c56.33$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.784443.2%19 W · 25 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e83…2e2abacked Tennessee Volunteers54c55.07$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.334259.5%25 W · 17 L+3.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+18.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x66df…7ea5backed Tennessee Volunteers55c54.07$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.3311257.1%64 W · 48 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa43a…8b10backed Iowa State Cyclones46c53.88$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.78560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+26.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xef2e…8d89backed Iowa State Cyclones47c52.73$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7849849.6%247 W · 251 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x927f…b921backed Tennessee Volunteers55c50.4$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.687146.5%33 W · 38 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea74…cf99backed Iowa State Cyclones44c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227950.6%40 W · 39 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Tennessee Volunteers54c37.03$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.034,55250.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L-36.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5a4…5422backed Iowa State Cyclones46c34.48$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.862864.3%18 W · 10 L+3.1wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+21%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5101…4a4fbacked Iowa State Cyclones45c33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8522656.2%127 W · 99 L+14.1wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x00ad…a87dbacked Iowa State Cyclones46c32.71$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.051968.4%13 W · 6 L+2.7wins+0.14per pick54cpaid+30.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Iowa State Cyclones45c31.25$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1219848%95 W · 103 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe964…6519backed Tennessee Volunteers53c30.18$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.183354.5%18 W · 15 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2363…1ac3backed Iowa State Cyclones45c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.53467.6%23 W · 11 L+4.3wins+0.13per pick55cpaid+22.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc01d…2e79backed Tennessee Volunteers54c29.74$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.685354.7%29 W · 24 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+17.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Iowa State Cyclones48c28.33$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.511,24916.4%205 W · 1,044 L-189.4wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-51.1%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x91ff…edfdbacked Iowa State Cyclones46c25.98$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.951942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-26.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed Iowa State Cyclones43c25.86$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1212054.2%65 W · 55 L+6.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c69…2b8dbacked Iowa State Cyclones46c24.61$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3269350.4%349 W · 344 L+0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4cf…9332backed Iowa State Cyclones46c23.9$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.991258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.17per pick42cpaid+19.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4f38…39f2backed Tennessee Volunteers55c21.63$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.732050%10 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4aab…38ccbacked Tennessee Volunteers54c19.28$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.8710353.4%55 W · 48 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-1.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.