Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x75dd175797acc48bae83577b17b00479064db838533c57bd4099019266e80a0d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,394
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,143
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,394 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 14c | 503.68$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.51 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25b2…4edbbacked Yes | 28c | 302.88$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.88 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 248.9$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.4 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 33c | 247.98$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.69 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 172.66$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.37 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaac4…efa0backed No | 65c | 154.09$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.72 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffc…e6ddbacked No | 65c | 151.87$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.01 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 26c | 143.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.41 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 52c | 142.91$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.44 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 34c | 141.44$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.44 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 134$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.12 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 57c | 130$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.74 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a8…c5b9backed Yes | 29c | 130$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.77 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 69c | 124.52$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.51 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 32c | 123.71$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.63 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 51c | 123.69$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.21 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 116$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.61 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 26c | 112.41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.36 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb901…9fc4backed Yes | 38c | 108.16$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.97 | 118 | 83.9%99 W · 19 L | +34.3wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 77+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0xead3…b125backed Yes | 29c | 101.8$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.28 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 101.64$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 63c | 96.94$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.24 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 36c | 96.34$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.6 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 35c | 96.34$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.34 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 61c | 92.19$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.37 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 31c | 92$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.43 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 68c | 90.77$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.84 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 27c | 90$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.43 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 67c | 88.91$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed Yes | 36c | 83.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.78 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 30c | 80.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.46 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 67c | 68$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.54 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 67c | 67.72$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.55 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 55c | 67.47$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 67c | 67.44$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.1 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 19c | 66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.87 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 74c | 64.14$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.41 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.8 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…6e99backed Yes | 29c | 59.43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.19 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 27c | 56.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.39 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4427…0174backed Yes | 54c | 55.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.11 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes | 55c | 54.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9735…9b4ebacked Yes | 39c | 50.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.79 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.76 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 79c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.44 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 71c | 49.82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.18 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x376c…41acbacked Yes | 32c | 47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.96 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 25c | 42.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.01 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 41.3$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.64 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 29c | 37.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c56…14ccbacked Yes | 31c | 35.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.34 | 68 | 30.9%21 W · 47 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed Yes | 34c | 33.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.31 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes | 77c | 32.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | +28.7wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 75c | 31.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb56c…30f3backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa300…24c7backed No | 68c | 29.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 60c | 29.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed No | 75c | 27.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 27.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 76c | 26.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 69c | 25.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 52c | 25.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 71c | 24.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 67c | 24.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7529…9d10backed No | 71c | 23.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4606…7f19backed No | 66c | 23.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 77c | 23.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 68c | 23.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff32…7da9backed No | 64c | 22.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 73c | 21.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 52c | 21.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 65c | 20.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…b03cbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 133 | 63.9%85 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x804b…b090backed No | 74c | 18.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 183 | 65.6%120 W · 63 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 76c | 18.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 74c | 18.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 62c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 66c | 17.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 76c | 16.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb838…aadabacked No | 69c | 16.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 66c | 15.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.