Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x270cd8796dd9e98a87a77d3c06cc73858747d9320e463a99398b0d972eaa36ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,690
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,549
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,690 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed Yes | 49c | 1,745$854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$854.03 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 47c | 716.39$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.8 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 54c | 530.61$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.65 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 51c | 450$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.5 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 53c | 439.27$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.26 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 54c | 268.92$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.04 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 51c | 250$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.5 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 51c | 241.58$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.79 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 51c | 201.7$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.24 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a8…c5b9backed Yes | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.35 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 48c | 169.56$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.98 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 47c | 148.41$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.77 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 51c | 134$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.91 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 47c | 126.44$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 51c | 117.69$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.69 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 22c | 116.35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 47c | 110.5$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.13 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 54c | 109.96$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.58 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 38c | 105.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.47 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 46c | 105.45$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.02 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 51c | 103.09$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.51 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a96…c617backed No | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…d964backed No | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b2…d3d9backed No | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x527e…384ebacked No | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 49c | 92$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.82 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 42c | 90$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.73 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 47c | 89.66$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.14 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 53c | 88$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.36 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 51c | 83.31$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.82 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 51c | 78.46$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.46 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25b2…4edbbacked Yes | 51c | 77.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaac4…efa0backed Yes | 48c | 76.89$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.64 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 51c | 74.92$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.56 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 57c | 72.03$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.21 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead3…b125backed No | 56c | 68.95$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.34 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d1ccbacked No | 58c | 68.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.96 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb2…d640backed No | 49c | 65$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.15 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 55c | 64.46$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 47c | 64.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 52c | 64.14$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 51c | 61$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.12 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6300…41adbacked Yes | 65c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 46c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 46c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 50c | 59.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 50c | 57.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.05 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 51c | 56.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.01 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes | 53c | 56.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9735…9b4ebacked Yes | 71c | 56.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 46c | 51.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb710…49c3backed No | 51c | 51.18$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…6e99backed No | 50c | 51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 39c | 51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 51c | 49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 52c | 49$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.28 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 38c | 48.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.27 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 46c | 47.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 52c | 47.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 47c | 47.46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.14 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 38c | 47.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 56c | 46.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34b0…05a6backed No | 51c | 46.81$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd31d…f8bfbacked No | 55c | 44.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 45c | 44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes | 52c | 43.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeedf…769cbacked Yes | 52c | 41.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 51c | 38.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb56c…30f3backed Yes | 52c | 38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa300…24c7backed Yes | 52c | 37.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 49c | 36.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 48c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 46c | 34.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca6…4beabacked Yes | 56c | 34.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 73 | 68.5%50 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 46c | 34.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 44c | 34.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fec…9d17backed No | 61c | 32.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 55c | 31.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x329c…3667backed Yes | 48c | 31.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 123 | 34.1%42 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 43c | 31.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7419…594abacked Yes | 50c | 30.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 79 | 25.3%20 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 53c | 30.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3621…9da2backed No | 50c | 30.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | +12.1wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 51c | 29.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 47c | 29.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4210…ed3dbacked No | 50c | 28.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -5.2wins | -0.30per pick | 54cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 52c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked No | 56c | 27.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 158 | 50.6%80 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 44c | 27.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 53c | 27.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.