TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 25?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,690
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,549

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,690 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ae0…7483backed Yes49c1,745$854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$854.0310539%41 W · 64 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes47c716.39$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.88,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked Yes54c530.61$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.652,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No51c450$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.51,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes53c439.27$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.262,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No54c268.92$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.0410,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x655c…1a00backed No51c250$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.536150.4%182 W · 179 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No51c241.58$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.791,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No51c201.7$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.243,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2a8…c5b9backed Yes47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.358943.8%39 W · 50 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes48c169.56$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.9816836.3%61 W · 107 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-0.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No47c148.41$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.7712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No51c134$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.915,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes47c126.44$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6064446.4%299 W · 345 L+19.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No51c117.69$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.6997570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes22c116.35$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.986,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x802d…d59abacked Yes47c110.5$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.131,29841.7%541 W · 757 L+53.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No54c109.96$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.582,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes38c105.7$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.476,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed No46c105.45$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.021,01860.2%613 W · 405 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14ad…69f5backed No51c103.09$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.5126744.2%118 W · 149 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a96…c617backed No49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$511457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed No51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4985049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20a8…d964backed No49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$512045%9 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-20.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3b2…d3d9backed No49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$512751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x527e…384ebacked No49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$512450%12 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes49c92$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.821,05434.9%368 W · 686 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes42c90$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.7360739.7%241 W · 366 L+27.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed Yes47c89.66$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.141,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No53c88$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.365,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No51c83.31$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.825,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9cc…59abbacked No51c78.46$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.4668867.2%462 W · 226 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25b2…4edbbacked Yes51c77.89$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405532.7%18 W · 37 L-7.1wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-35.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xaac4…efa0backed Yes48c76.89$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.649038.9%35 W · 55 L-7.0wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-25.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed No51c74.92$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.5658358%338 W · 245 L-2.6wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No57c72.03$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.212,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xead3…b125backed No56c68.95$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.347252.8%38 W · 34 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-8.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d1ccbacked No58c68.95$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.96580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.29per pick51cpaid+59.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1fb2…d640backed No49c65$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.154961.2%30 W · 19 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+15.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9c90…17efbacked No55c64.46$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.928847.2%136 W · 152 L+0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0838…64f6backed Yes47c64.44$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3021052.4%110 W · 100 L+14.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No52c64.14$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.665965.4%431 W · 228 L-12.7wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No51c61$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.122,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6300…41adbacked Yes65c60$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392842.9%12 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes46c60$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.833,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x156b…5808backed Yes46c60$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.640535.6%144 W · 261 L-0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No49c60$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.5480050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No50c59.94$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.184,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No50c57.98$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.051,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No51c56.94$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.012,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes53c56.81$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010746.7%50 W · 57 L-0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9735…9b4ebacked Yes71c56.7$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404961.2%30 W · 19 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+9.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4374…3d05backed No53c56.6$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.634151.3%175 W · 166 L-26.9wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-16.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes46c51.38$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6363538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb710…49c3backed No51c51.18$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.082937.9%11 W · 18 L-4.4wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-30.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x272e…6e99backed No50c51$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.516724.6%41 W · 126 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No39c51$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.111,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206253.2%33 W · 29 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7eb5…9400backed No41c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.552758.8%310 W · 217 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No51c49$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.022,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x84c3…35d4backed No52c49$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.2821268.4%145 W · 67 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick69cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No38c48.82$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.271,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed Yes46c47.68$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.931,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No52c47.57$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.698571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No47c47.46$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.144,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No38c47.46$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.2595852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No56c46.99$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.6798565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34b0…05a6backed No51c46.81$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.943253.1%17 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd31d…f8bfbacked No55c44.99$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.18450%42 W · 42 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes45c44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.846148.8%225 W · 236 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes52c43.72$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7621964.8%142 W · 77 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeedf…769cbacked Yes52c41.35$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.51145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.15per pick61cpaid-31.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb49f…1821backed Yes50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,06153.2%564 W · 497 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5157…fdbcbacked No32c40$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.253353.1%283 W · 250 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed No51c38.47$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.851,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked No52c38.46$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.461,38565.8%911 W · 474 L+62.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb56c…30f3backed Yes52c38$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8210455.8%58 W · 46 L+10.4wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+20.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa300…24c7backed Yes52c37.02$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.31450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+16.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No49c36.57$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.62,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed Yes48c35$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.890555.6%503 W · 402 L-1.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes46c34.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.191444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ca6…4beabacked Yes56c34.57$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.227368.5%50 W · 23 L+5.5wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+17.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes46c34.43$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.729,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed Yes44c34.27$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0856543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9fec…9d17backed No61c32.81$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.815152.9%27 W · 24 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No55c31.79$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.3383459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x329c…3667backed Yes48c31.19$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9712334.1%42 W · 81 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes43c31.14$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.391,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7419…594abacked Yes50c30.62$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.227925.3%20 W · 59 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-26.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes53c30.22$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0143559.8%260 W · 175 L+20.7wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3621…9da2backed No50c30.16$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.1611334.5%39 W · 74 L+12.1wins+0.11per pick24cpaid+40.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No56c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.33,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No51c29.48$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.33,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes47c29.46$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8541331%128 W · 285 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+0.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4210…ed3dbacked No50c28.31$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.071723.5%4 W · 13 L-5.2wins-0.30per pick54cpaid-46.4%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No52c28$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.4943563.9%278 W · 157 L+13.6wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a09…9b7fbacked No56c27.75$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2115850.6%80 W · 78 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3fa…4531backed Yes44c27.75$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2131936.1%115 W · 204 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No53c27.12$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.772,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.