Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x75eb72d90e45aee72614b8240af6bb27276ab8d40179e82f2f9998dc0feae7c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,022
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,257
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,022 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 34c | 2,362$794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,567.88 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 76c | 672.55$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.53 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes | 72c | 376.21$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.54 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed No | 35c | 339.38$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.18 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 25c | 317.9$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.63 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 9c | 180.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 180$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.75 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x957f…aee0backed Yes | 75c | 178.54$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.76 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 56c | 159.29$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.3 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 51c | 155.89$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.2 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 11c | 150$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked Yes | 48c | 129.92$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.51 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 18c | 123.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 112$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.44 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…edf6backed Yes | 19c | 102.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.23 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 57c | 100.48$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.11 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.99 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 22c | 99.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 22c | 75.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 29c | 72.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b81…1ae7backed No | 58c | 69.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.11 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 55cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 26c | 68.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 33c | 67.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc6…22a6backed Yes | 44c | 66.04$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.98 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 61c | 65.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes | 56c | 64.44$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 58c | 59.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 32c | 58.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 22c | 58.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 57c | 56.37$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 36c | 55.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.81 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6568…978ebacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 24c | 47.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 41c | 47.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 63c | 45.54$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 64c | 45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 67c | 42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…3f63backed Yes | 48c | 41.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.92 | 138 | 39.1%54 W · 84 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed Yes | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…1a28backed No | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -39%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 30c | 37.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 34c | 36.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 42c | 35.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8174…be40backed Yes | 55c | 30.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 47c | 30.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f2…9bf5backed Yes | 36c | 28.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…3de3backed No | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 61c | 21.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 57c | 21.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d8…a8cebacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e3…6863backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 71c | 14.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 30?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 30?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 30?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 30?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.