Europa Conference League · resolved market
RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7604d0fedd65bace4a96dcfc908cd0cca62b04c6afa983309446a58ca12a7318
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,848
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,390
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,848 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29b7…48d4backed Over | 30c | 3,333$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbed3…2811backed Under | 75c | 2,649$1,980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.36 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 73c | 2,283$1,669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.69 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 30c | 2,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 128 | 32.8%42 W · 86 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 30c | 1,167$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 19c | 813.17$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.1 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 71c | 796.98$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.69 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a6…6ea4backed Under | 71c | 704.23$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.23 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 19c | 677.7$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.08 | 155 | 62.6%97 W · 58 L | +22.9wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Under | 71c | 599.21$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.77 | 107 | 57%61 W · 46 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 28c | 545$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.6 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 59 | 27.1%16 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7599…4293backed Over | 20c | 490.4$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.08 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 70c | 435.03$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.51 | 694 | 48.8%339 W · 355 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 19c | 355.3$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.28 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +14.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 72c | 334.2$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.99 | 568 | 49.6%282 W · 286 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 19c | 324.1$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.23 | 179 | 58.1%104 W · 75 L | +17.0wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 24c | 318.08$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.34 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 29c | 310.34$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Over | 26c | 299.37$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.85 | 74 | 17.6%13 W · 61 L | -7.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Over | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 70c | 228.57$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.57 | 112 | 46.4%52 W · 60 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 70c | 165$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 19c | 152.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Over | 18c | 120$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a6…aed7backed Under | 74c | 115.21$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.21 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 70c | 108.35$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 661 | 50.5%334 W · 327 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 12c | 105$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 234 | 61.5%144 W · 90 L | +26.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa529…677ebacked Under | 71c | 101.41$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.41 | 33 | 81.8%27 W · 6 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 70cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 116 | 57.8%67 W · 49 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2e…c5d2backed Under | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf94c…4484backed Under | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e30…02a0backed Under | 71c | 95.77$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.46per pick | 71cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9430…febdbacked Over | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 19c | 76.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 377 | 50.9%192 W · 185 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4523…0be0backed Over | 29c | 75.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 71c | 74.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 82 | 61%50 W · 32 L | +7.4wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7c…4ce2backed Under | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc311…c154backed Under | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3373…3716backed Over | 20c | 61.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Over | 29c | 55.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Under | 70c | 54.48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad9…5562backed Over | 20c | 53.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 179 | 41.9%75 W · 104 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…d4e9backed Over | 29c | 49.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x497c…a9bbbacked Over | 30c | 48.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…6b14backed Under | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f5…8314backed Under | 71c | 26.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Under | 71c | 21.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a91…7ebabacked Under | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 74c | 19.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 795 | 32.2%256 W · 539 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa7…303dbacked Under | 75c | 16.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc2…4837backed Under | 71c | 15.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed Under | 71c | 14.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -4.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 3.5this page
- RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5Under won
- RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5Under won
- RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: RC Strasbourg Alsace (-1.5)Rayo Vallecano de Madrid won
- Spread: RC Strasbourg Alsace (-2.5)Rayo Vallecano de Madrid won
- Spread: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (-1.5)RC Strasbourg Alsace won
- Spread: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (-2.5)RC Strasbourg Alsace won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.