Europa Conference League · resolved market
RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9716356e31b96113e4346883266081ca40f9b0834e4e76fe1c44a975d301cda0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,125
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,055
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,125 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 49c | 4,926$2,403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,522.61 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaebf…e1cabacked Yes | 36c | 2,017$734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734.28 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551d…9326backed Yes | 57c | 1,696$967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$966.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed No | 45c | 1,555$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$855.23 | 201 | 32.3%65 W · 136 L | -9.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 60c | 1,554$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.13 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb693…cfc9backed Yes | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked No | 44c | 976.46$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.53 | 112 | 46.4%52 W · 60 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…0d22backed Yes | 56c | 871.43$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8c…f75abacked Yes | 60c | 833.33$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…43d0backed Yes | 61c | 819.67$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 25c | 796$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 44c | 737.48$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.92 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1816backed No | 50c | 712.14$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.63 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 43c | 685.26$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.66 | 234 | 61.5%144 W · 90 L | +26.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf704…bed4backed Yes | 46c | 680.07$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.83 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc905…850bbacked Yes | 56c | 535.71$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 42c | 484$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.35 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 43c | 447.57$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.43 | 919 | 50.9%468 W · 451 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…5856backed Yes | 50c | 342.62$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.31 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a80…49bfbacked Yes | 56c | 279.66$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.61 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20b…3ae4backed Yes | 56c | 267.86$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfae5…f683backed Yes | 56c | 267.86$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0cf…8bcbbacked Yes | 56c | 251.23$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.48 | 81 | 24.7%20 W · 61 L | -8.0wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Yes | 52c | 201$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.52 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +102.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed No | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef7…1e3dbacked Yes | 56c | 175$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 44c | 153.89$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.08 | 568 | 49.6%282 W · 286 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 64c | 151.82$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.19 | 638 | 57.2%365 W · 273 L | +35.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9787…37dfbacked Yes | 44c | 137.23$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Yes | 56c | 134.02$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.20per pick | 46cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdb03…9732backed Yes | 56c | 133.93$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97b3…4a85backed Yes | 47c | 130$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.1 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Yes | 55c | 126.97$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.83 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8918…8824backed No | 79c | 126.51$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed No | 62c | 120$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked No | 45c | 118.17$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.99 | 116 | 57.8%67 W · 49 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…57afbacked Yes | 56c | 107.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…eecabacked No | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20bf…2be9backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1871…59e6backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b68…0060backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked Yes | 55c | 99.98$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.99 | 93 | 38.7%36 W · 57 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3d…2068backed Yes | 53c | 94.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.35 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 35c | 91.27$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.06 | 74 | 17.6%13 W · 61 L | -7.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa23f…a64ebacked Yes | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…38ccbacked Yes | 55c | 90.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52f2…5a5dbacked No | 62c | 82.23$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf57c…66febacked Yes | 29c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2c…9d16backed Yes | 44c | 68.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd832…67e0backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeecc…6930backed Yes | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eab…78efbacked Yes | 57c | 58.95$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 57c | 57.89$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 377 | 50.9%192 W · 185 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e79…9076backed Yes | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76a4…6207backed No | 56c | 51.79$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x550e…0840backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.37per pick | 49cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf680…2c59backed Yes | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a48…dc30backed Yes | 34c | 43.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8b…ebb0backed No | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa497…7891backed No | 63c | 38.18$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a77…f859backed Yes | 31c | 38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c0…7e02backed Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 274 | 37.2%102 W · 172 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba90…a450backed Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.32per pick | 53cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x195d…2decbacked Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7d…866bbacked No | 57c | 35.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…36f2backed Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Yes | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2119…9303backed Yes | 57c | 29.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed No | 45c | 27.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -4.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed No | 58c | 27.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 501 | 54.7%274 W · 227 L | +20.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16fe…9496backed Yes | 45c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 97 | 40.2%39 W · 58 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6b…2f6abacked Yes | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a91…7ebabacked Yes | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0633…efaabacked Yes | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed No | 51c | 20.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed No | 66c | 20.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2c…5dc1backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee45…e055backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -4.4wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Yes | 60c | 17.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5Under won
- RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5Under won
- RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 3.5Under won
- RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: RC Strasbourg Alsace (-1.5)Rayo Vallecano de Madrid won
- Spread: RC Strasbourg Alsace (-2.5)Rayo Vallecano de Madrid won
- Spread: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (-1.5)RC Strasbourg Alsace won
- Spread: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (-2.5)RC Strasbourg Alsace won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.