MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76428df90b671e79f39ec9456e92b6755b0eb647023fef45f03679682a2565d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago Cubsof Chicago Cubs, Texas Rangers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $95,783
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $96,396
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $95,783 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Texas Rangers | 31c | 50,675$15,874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,873.61 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Chicago Cubs | 71c | 46,661$33,154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,507.61 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1626…9e8dbacked Texas Rangers | 0c | 14,930$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Chicago Cubs | 47c | 4,774$2,246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,528.02 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe941…a496backed Texas Rangers | 29c | 2,431$704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703.88 | 78 | 61.5%48 W · 30 L | +7.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Texas Rangers | 27c | 1,911$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.4 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Cubs | 66c | 1,626$1,077 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.86 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Chicago Cubs | 69c | 1,415$979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.76 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Texas Rangers | 56c | 1,370$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$767.66 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Texas Rangers | 29c | 1,274$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.01 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Chicago Cubs | 72c | 1,258$907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.61 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Chicago Cubs | 44c | 1,181$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.2 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Texas Rangers | 32c | 1,111$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.85 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Chicago Cubs | 72c | 564.6$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.98 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa497…7891backed Texas Rangers | 38c | 552.6$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.7 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Chicago Cubs | 72c | 485.44$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.92 | 1,151 | 49.2%566 W · 585 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x581f…9d8ebacked Chicago Cubs | 72c | 416.67$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Chicago Cubs | 53c | 400$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Chicago Cubs | 54c | 369.03$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.84 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Chicago Cubs | 45c | 254$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.91 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Chicago Cubs | 41c | 240.1$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.66 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…3c1ebacked Chicago Cubs | 44c | 210$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.6 | 483 | 54.7%264 W · 219 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Texas Rangers | 31c | 205.47$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.49 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Texas Rangers | 29c | 196.55$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 377 | 47.2%178 W · 199 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a38…d420backed Texas Rangers | 29c | 164.2$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.62 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Chicago Cubs | 70c | 151.52$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.34 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Chicago Cubs | 52c | 134.02$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.92 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc2…eaefbacked Texas Rangers | 57c | 121$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.97 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa7…303dbacked Texas Rangers | 28c | 118.79$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.72 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Chicago Cubs | 72c | 117.95$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.68 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42ac…2096backed Chicago Cubs | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Chicago Cubs | 72c | 110.16$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.84 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Texas Rangers | 36c | 102.32$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.12 | 208 | 52.9%110 W · 98 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Texas Rangers | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Texas Rangers | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Chicago Cubs | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Chicago Cubs | 72c | 89$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Texas Rangers | 23c | 85.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Chicago Cubs | 71c | 78.68$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.45 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Texas Rangers | 57c | 70$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Chicago Cubs | 41c | 69.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.65 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Chicago Cubs | 45c | 62$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.36 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Texas Rangers | 59c | 59.32$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6815…9edbbacked Texas Rangers | 18c | 58.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 447 | 44.1%197 W · 250 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa188…62eabacked Chicago Cubs | 53c | 56.79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 242 | 48.8%118 W · 124 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Texas Rangers | 26c | 56.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb39b…14c9backed Chicago Cubs | 43c | 55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Texas Rangers | 26c | 53.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Texas Rangers | 47c | 50.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Chicago Cubs | 42c | 45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Chicago Cubs | 72c | 44.87$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 273 | 54.6%149 W · 124 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Texas Rangers | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Texas Rangers | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcf…c678backed Chicago Cubs | 43c | 41.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Chicago Cubs | 78c | 41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x738f…20e8backed Texas Rangers | 25c | 40.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 28cpaid | -84.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…f535backed Texas Rangers | 27c | 39.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | +8.8wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb22…a11cbacked Texas Rangers | 33c | 35.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Texas Rangers | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 330 | 51.8%171 W · 159 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Texas Rangers | 47c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e10…78f7backed Texas Rangers | 33c | 32.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Texas Rangers | 52c | 30.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 316 | 50.6%160 W · 156 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9e…2264backed Texas Rangers | 49c | 29.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Chicago Cubs | 54c | 27.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9603…de5ebacked Chicago Cubs | 73c | 27.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Texas Rangers | 55c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Texas Rangers | 58c | 23.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Chicago Cubs | 53c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0199…4e86backed Texas Rangers | 49c | 22.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Chicago Cubs | 75c | 19.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 207 | 64.7%134 W · 73 L | +21.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcb37…7d86backed Chicago Cubs | 75c | 14.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.59 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Texas RangersChicago Cubs won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Texas RangersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.