CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: M80 vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x765865de212ebcd841387700e05cd380bfe74e61e7cae9dc6a2072c71e415bbf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MOUZof M80, MOUZ
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,630
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,873
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,630 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked M80 | 12c | 6,647$824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$823.95 | 3,256 | 50.3%1,637 W · 1,619 L | +97.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebc…a33dbacked M80 | 6c | 6,303$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.4 | 630 | 57.1%360 W · 270 L | +40.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked M80 | 11c | 2,732$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.37 | 2,221 | 41.3%917 W · 1,304 L | -22.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked M80 | 8c | 2,315$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.45 | 1,256 | 46.7%587 W · 669 L | +17.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked M80 | 9c | 2,041$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.39 | 4,661 | 43.5%2,027 W · 2,634 L | -85.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked M80 | 4c | 2,023$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.02 | 2,205 | 47.6%1,049 W · 1,156 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked M80 | 18c | 1,759$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.43 | 3,217 | 51.3%1,649 W · 1,568 L | +89.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked M80 | 34c | 1,634$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.82 | 1,621 | 44.8%726 W · 895 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed M80 | 10c | 1,629$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.09 | 1,969 | 46.7%919 W · 1,050 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8705…edbabacked MOUZ | 62c | 1,546$966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.49 | 401 | 40.6%163 W · 238 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82dc…5700backed M80 | 7c | 1,501$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.07 | 870 | 47.9%417 W · 453 L | +15.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed M80 | 14c | 1,114$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.6 | 4,220 | 49.2%2,078 W · 2,142 L | +61.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58d1…7ab6backed M80 | 37c | 1,081$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed M80 | 22c | 900$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.97 | 1,277 | 21.9%280 W · 997 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked MOUZ | 63c | 889.73$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.67 | 395 | 48.6%192 W · 203 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed M80 | 12c | 838.91$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.56 | 6,466 | 42.9%2,777 W · 3,689 L | -78.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6c…a9b3backed MOUZ | 73c | 687.72$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.72 | 1,163 | 54.3%631 W · 532 L | -38.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked M80 | 19c | 669.28$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.1 | 4,897 | 37.4%1,832 W · 3,065 L | -245.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5453…a834backed M80 | 18c | 546.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 316 | 54.7%173 W · 143 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed M80 | 17c | 526.7$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.47 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b5…f95bbacked MOUZ | 65c | 500$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed M80 | 35c | 450$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.5 | 2,057 | 41.5%853 W · 1,204 L | -50.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed M80 | 13c | 407.66$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.47 | 95 | 33.7%32 W · 63 L | -9.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2920…a1d3backed MOUZ | 80c | 369.58$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.58 | 265 | 64.2%170 W · 95 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4031…92c8backed MOUZ | 64c | 343.86$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.86 | 508 | 46.3%235 W · 273 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f0b…f901backed M80 | 30c | 326.3$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.89 | 359 | 53.2%191 W · 168 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8da…a6e6backed MOUZ | 62c | 274.72$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.39 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed MOUZ | 79c | 268.6$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.99 | 4,040 | 50.9%2,057 W · 1,983 L | +71.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8e…f9b2backed M80 | 40c | 260.33$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53e9…5ef8backed M80 | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 321 | 36.8%118 W · 203 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420b…965bbacked MOUZ | 78c | 250$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 582 | 54.3%316 W · 266 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54ac…47e6backed MOUZ | 70c | 248.73$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.6 | 660 | 72.4%478 W · 182 L | +117.6wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +25%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x87c0…244ebacked M80 | 36c | 211.26$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b97…8d30backed MOUZ | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 665 | 51.9%345 W · 320 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ea…59a1backed M80 | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 192 | 38%73 W · 119 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0c…51dbbacked M80 | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 401 | 48.4%194 W · 207 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90a4…cde3backed M80 | 15c | 188.58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe80c…f3e6backed M80 | 37c | 186.7$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 414 | 39.1%162 W · 252 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…40e8backed M80 | 15c | 186.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 151 | 34.4%52 W · 99 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed M80 | 36c | 162.29$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.42 | 2,061 | 50.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4704…515ebacked M80 | 19c | 157.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 371 | 40.7%151 W · 220 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…64c3backed M80 | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa820…2dcebacked M80 | 13c | 131.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 169 | 46.2%78 W · 91 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf93d…49e4backed MOUZ | 65c | 125.92$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.07 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…aefdbacked M80 | 38c | 109.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 840 | 37.9%318 W · 522 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9307…9da3backed MOUZ | 71c | 104.42$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.13 | 1,008 | 69.3%699 W · 309 L | +152.8wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea8…0491backed M80 | 36c | 100.77$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.97 | 167 | 41.9%70 W · 97 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ffc…cfabbacked M80 | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8bd…fc74backed M80 | 25c | 99.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 308 | 31.2%96 W · 212 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd4…9bcdbacked MOUZ | 79c | 95.06$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 150 | 69.3%104 W · 46 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe297…e484backed M80 | 18c | 90$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 322 | 58.7%189 W · 133 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe72b…3c9cbacked M80 | 31c | 90$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 286 | 57.7%165 W · 121 L | +14.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x835f…5a4fbacked MOUZ | 64c | 82.94$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.94 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked MOUZ | 79c | 80$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 178 | 49.4%88 W · 90 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e55…ec55backed MOUZ | 71c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x456a…6a90backed MOUZ | 79c | 69.54$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed M80 | 36c | 67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf331…2489backed M80 | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 212 | 52.8%112 W · 100 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6018…f21bbacked M80 | 34c | 59.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa664…f849backed M80 | 33c | 59.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 287 | 38%109 W · 178 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16db…8d0fbacked MOUZ | 79c | 52.6$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27cf…979abacked MOUZ | 79c | 50.59$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 117 | 40.2%47 W · 70 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e45…39dabacked MOUZ | 79c | 50.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 97 | 40.2%39 W · 58 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf92c…a387backed M80 | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 100 | 40%40 W · 60 L | -7.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked MOUZ | 64c | 47.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 558 | 43.5%243 W · 315 L | -16.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed MOUZ | 63c | 42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 982 | 48.3%474 W · 508 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8912…1712backed M80 | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 277 | 35.7%99 W · 178 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0463…f69ebacked M80 | 35c | 32.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ff…e90ebacked M80 | 35c | 32.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c06…c5d1backed MOUZ | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 88 | 70.5%62 W · 26 L | +7.0wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16d2…a07abacked M80 | 35c | 30.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb0…c9f8backed M80 | 35c | 30.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21dd…0b83backed M80 | 37c | 30.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab6…4880backed MOUZ | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 593 | 54.8%325 W · 268 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b26…57e9backed MOUZ | 64c | 27.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,484 | 58%861 W · 623 L | +66.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…c855backed MOUZ | 80c | 24.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c5…f095backed MOUZ | 67c | 22.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 602 | 58.5%352 W · 250 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4b…69debacked MOUZ | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 446 | 41.3%184 W · 262 L | -28.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12bc…bf2fbacked MOUZ | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 374 | 41.7%156 W · 218 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed MOUZ | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 206 | 51.9%107 W · 99 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: M80 vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: M80 vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group AMOUZ won
- Counter-Strike: M80 vs MOUZ - Map 2 WinnerM80 won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs M80 (+1.5)M80 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.