Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7708b76c8ec1953492309248ae6f75b92c5642af163753b2bcd52e4d832ab259
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,932
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,117
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,932 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 37c | 300$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.26 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x446b…132abacked Yes | 41c | 227.93$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.87 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 36c | 182.25$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.79 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 35c | 180.72$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.59 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 58c | 172.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.98 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 60c | 159$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.4 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 63c | 150.61$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.85 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed01…89b7backed Yes | 37c | 142.22$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.6 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 31c | 137.01$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.28 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 60c | 119.97$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.15 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 34c | 116.55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.85 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 59c | 109.18$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.87 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 37c | 106.87$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.87 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 60c | 96.08$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.68 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 95.92$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.54 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 45c | 85.8$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.77 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 51c | 83.94$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.21 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 65c | 82.57$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.4 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed No | 64c | 79.63$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked No | 61c | 74.18$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.52 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 63c | 70.01$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.25 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 33c | 64.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 43c | 63.66$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.28 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 48c | 62.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.47 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 37c | 61$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 35c | 60.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.39 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 38c | 56.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.23 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 39c | 53.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.92 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a13…72cebacked Yes | 38c | 51.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.99 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -29%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 63c | 50.95$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed No | 65c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 60c | 49.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes | 80c | 45.82$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 40c | 43.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.09 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed Yes | 38c | 43.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 26c | 43.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 61c | 39.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 62c | 38.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 39c | 38.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…7434backed No | 36c | 32.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 64c | 31.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 60c | 29.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 40c | 25.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 53c | 24.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked Yes | 44c | 24.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 24.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa6…3c12backed No | 62c | 19.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 61c | 19.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 61c | 19.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94ae…d801backed No | 58c | 18.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 63c | 18.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 60c | 16.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 62c | 16.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.