Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Reilly Neill be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Montana?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x776db9e01d9c8559071df4a0d42e9e03d9ee943dc61ce2e11378491da42dc42d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,676
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,145
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,676 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1fee…ed5ebacked No | 10c | 850$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$766.19 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +72.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 25c | 790.95$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.14 | 115 | 22.6%26 W · 89 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 8c | 530.91$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.21 | 182 | 3.8%7 W · 175 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5d…1614backed Yes | 25c | 522.18$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.32 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29d3…b2edbacked No | 8c | 500$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 12c | 483.16$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.92 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 15c | 309$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.65 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked No | 10c | 306$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.58 | 228 | 33.8%77 W · 151 L | +13.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed No | 14c | 299.86$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.78 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 67c | 271.21$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.61 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf440…2747backed Yes | 20c | 200$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.12 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 75c | 185$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.25 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 78c | 182.95$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.53 | 165 | 44.2%73 W · 92 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 8c | 142.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.22 | 147 | 29.9%44 W · 103 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 78c | 140.74$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.53 | 166 | 32.5%54 W · 112 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 44c | 139.95$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.88 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 9c | 133.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 21c | 132.37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.07 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa784…3605backed No | 17c | 121.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.07 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked No | 19c | 118.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.01 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x554a…9ecdbacked No | 14c | 110.27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +249.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.87 | 196 | 31.1%61 W · 135 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 43c | 85.48$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.62 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 19c | 83.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.42 | 449 | 35.2%158 W · 291 L | -37.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 76c | 82.84$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc9…b2eebacked No | 19c | 70$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +414.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 17c | 65.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.46 | 183 | 10.4%19 W · 164 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc755…a595backed Yes | 79c | 53.55$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 65c | 52.57$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.13 | 248 | 61.7%153 W · 95 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 34c | 52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.13 | 182 | 37.4%68 W · 114 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0da3…67fabacked Yes | 80c | 45$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked No | 47c | 24.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +18.5wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2734…97cbbacked Yes | 79c | 23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Reilly Neill be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Montana?this page
- Will Alani Bankhead be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Montana?Yes won
- Will Michael Hummert be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Montana?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.