TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Geneva Open, Qualification: James Duckworth vs Miguel Damas

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
James Duckworthof James Duckworth, Miguel Damas
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$354,995
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$395,071

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $354,995 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 242 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6832…831fbacked Miguel Damas11c26,379$2,976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,975.5229241.8%122 W · 170 L+0.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Miguel Damas25c25,246$6,237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,236.554,18544.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L+14.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Miguel Damas33c16,340$5,369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,369.16,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed James Duckworth37c16,106$6,027 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,079.038,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b52…568ebacked Miguel Damas65c15,503$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00020459.3%121 W · 83 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26b4…b8a9backed Miguel Damas64c6,250$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00036145.2%163 W · 198 L-19.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8f04…7994backed James Duckworth15c6,166$950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,216.264628.3%13 W · 33 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9772…4867backed James Duckworth64c5,668$3,627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,040.451553.3%8 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick63cpaid-11.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xce9f…26e8backed Miguel Damas39c5,150$2,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,008.488647.7%41 W · 45 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfbe…aaaebacked Miguel Damas57c4,200$2,393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,393450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Miguel Damas25c3,756$937 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$937.046,72036.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L-95.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x31c1…7047backed James Duckworth65c3,729$2,443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,286.7379855.9%446 W · 352 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3354…5042backed James Duckworth65c3,572$2,339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,232.9517359.5%103 W · 70 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Miguel Damas48c3,103$1,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,480.395,35056.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L+228.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xac5f…7f12backed James Duckworth61c3,015$1,839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,175.85650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0828…a1a6backed Miguel Damas39c2,863$1,116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,116.3927148%130 W · 141 L-12.8wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-7.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Miguel Damas44c2,826$1,232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,232.188,50542.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L-166.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8ff…ed99backed James Duckworth62c2,573$1,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$982.85785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick65cpaid+34.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb77…ef9ebacked Miguel Damas60c2,088$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,25094068.1%640 W · 300 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed James Duckworth61c2,061$1,247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$814.131,10742.8%474 W · 633 L-20.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed James Duckworth58c2,057$1,202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$854.5260053.8%323 W · 277 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed James Duckworth47c2,044$958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,085.980341.8%336 W · 467 L-20.6wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x363c…4463backed Miguel Damas38c2,000$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$759.9927431.8%87 W · 187 L+12.4wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+38.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f75…0fbfbacked Miguel Damas43c1,925$828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$827.764731.9%15 W · 32 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Miguel Damas31c1,787$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552.113,60542.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L-43.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Miguel Damas39c1,695$661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$660.983,25648.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L-53.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Miguel Damas38c1,673$638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$637.654,70349.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L+166.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Miguel Damas37c1,630$604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.0211,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x458e…fa79backed James Duckworth61c1,590$970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$620.091050%5 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f3b…9ed5backed James Duckworth52c1,500$785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$715.394143.9%18 W · 23 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid+12.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed James Duckworth36c1,488$542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$946.483,66145.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L-8.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf86c…9f3bbacked James Duckworth61c1,442$880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.38650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-14%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9d3…079fbacked James Duckworth63c1,431$898 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532.7648855.9%273 W · 215 L-20.0wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-6.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed Miguel Damas13c1,407$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.3572132%231 W · 490 L-17.8wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x12ce…570abacked James Duckworth31c1,350$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$937.273650%18 W · 18 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-21%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb347…5166backed Miguel Damas42c1,075$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.7921955.3%121 W · 98 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ce9…61e5backed James Duckworth29c1,030$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$734.3211547%54 W · 61 L+6.9wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+18.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa664…f849backed Miguel Damas38c1,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38085634.2%293 W · 563 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x448d…3adebacked Miguel Damas38c999.99$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.9932247.2%152 W · 170 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4ee…c2c8backed James Duckworth62c956.4$593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.43650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-14.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Miguel Damas62c895.47$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555.179,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Miguel Damas41c873.71$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.1243950.8%223 W · 216 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid0%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed James Duckworth61c819.67$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.671,61550.6%817 W · 798 L-17.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeaac…d71dbacked Miguel Damas39c775.26$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.351,86545.6%851 W · 1,014 L+50.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Miguel Damas33c734.57$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.694,60248.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L+34.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x62ae…c975backed Miguel Damas41c734.39$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30021537.2%80 W · 135 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+17%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5213…6a35backed Miguel Damas39c699.09$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.651,86544.7%834 W · 1,031 L+36.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked James Duckworth47c693.18$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$365.557,81650.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L+95.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99d7…6435backed James Duckworth60c650$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2601,14853%608 W · 540 L+25.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+22.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b7c…6c8cbacked James Duckworth61c627$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.53666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+24%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Miguel Damas78c623.87$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.123,67754.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L+107.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x76f1…f655backed Miguel Damas43c623.2$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.0259253.5%317 W · 275 L+22.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0267…7f7ebacked James Duckworth30c617.14$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.2430436.2%110 W · 194 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e0f…27f3backed James Duckworth69c590.71$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.121546.7%7 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.16per pick63cpaid-27%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4093…5749backed Miguel Damas11c586.37$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.32,85549.4%1,410 W · 1,445 L+21.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed James Duckworth51c576.38$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.424,28840.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L-139.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8816…7738backed James Duckworth58c529.93$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.571,10650.3%556 W · 550 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Miguel Damas22c495.24$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.852,04453.8%1,100 W · 944 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a65…7238backed James Duckworth62c483.9$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.99056.7%51 W · 39 L-0.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe524…d34fbacked Miguel Damas42c482.93$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.8321743.8%95 W · 122 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc26a…b715backed Miguel Damas27c466.67$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12657321.8%125 W · 448 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc936…c08abacked James Duckworth33c463.44$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.444139%16 W · 25 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+18.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x697e…9904backed Miguel Damas27c452.73$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.78245.1%37 W · 45 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Miguel Damas39c440$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.024,42651.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L+136.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba86…9ab0backed James Duckworth34c411.76$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.7667239.1%263 W · 409 L-29.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-12.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed James Duckworth57c400$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1721,83153%971 W · 860 L-45.3wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaec3…22dfbacked Miguel Damas38c399.97$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.991464.3%9 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick67cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87bb…42b0backed James Duckworth64c365.75$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.753100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+70.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb416…4588backed James Duckworth35c341$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.754057.5%23 W · 17 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe44c…32a5backed James Duckworth9c333.33$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.332228.6%19 W · 203 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick8cpaid+16.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bf9…be26backed Miguel Damas57c330.16$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.5643062.3%268 W · 162 L-0.7wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1861…408dbacked Miguel Damas38c328.08$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.6744851.6%231 W · 217 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2843…0ac5backed James Duckworth61c327.87$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.8723159.3%137 W · 94 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7bf…b02dbacked James Duckworth61c327.87$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.8759165.3%386 W · 205 L-16.9wins-0.03per pick68cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb740…2ec1backed James Duckworth62c323.71$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.7135157%200 W · 151 L-13.4wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-6.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ec7…2b6bbacked James Duckworth64c313.89$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.8922856.1%128 W · 100 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x67ff…3214backed James Duckworth16c312.5$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.538422.4%86 W · 298 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc2c…a49cbacked Miguel Damas44c309.55$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.42837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc5f…cf7cbacked Miguel Damas40c254.25$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.716047.5%76 W · 84 L+8.0wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa877…2e20backed Miguel Damas40c250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10081047.9%388 W · 422 L+30.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc46e…9ed8backed Miguel Damas39c250$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.537238.2%142 W · 230 L-8.2wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4538…7d5cbacked James Duckworth66c248$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.5217738.4%68 W · 109 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb962…8519backed Miguel Damas43c245.83$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.582733.3%9 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-27.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked James Duckworth36c236$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.0473350.9%373 W · 360 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a88…4e57backed Miguel Damas43c235.23$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003740.5%15 W · 22 L-5.5wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-32.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa270…e6e6backed Miguel Damas43c232.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd907…6b4dbacked Miguel Damas43c232.25$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.34250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-20.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc25c…f6dfbacked James Duckworth51c227.97$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.925145.1%23 W · 28 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e5e…67c5backed Miguel Damas43c223.58$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.142420.8%5 W · 19 L-3.3wins-0.14per pick35cpaid-45.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd0c7…4459backed James Duckworth79c221.52$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.723847.4%18 W · 20 L-3.3wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-28.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7820…5b79backed Miguel Damas14c214.29$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020515.6%32 W · 173 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaad3…d0d2backed James Duckworth57c214.2$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.193951.3%20 W · 19 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-22.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf753…bcfebacked Miguel Damas29c210.16$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.9753736.9%198 W · 339 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc68b…3c2dbacked James Duckworth54c201.46$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.46742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick32cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9e4…24c2backed James Duckworth50c198.71$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.7126759.6%159 W · 108 L-1.2wins0.00per pick60cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed James Duckworth56c198.66$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.174,93441.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L-77.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8642…47c8backed Miguel Damas38c195.05$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.1225250%126 W · 126 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc08…6b85backed Miguel Damas38c192.3$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.071,10352.9%583 W · 520 L+2.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6932…6878backed Miguel Damas39c180$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.286835.4%307 W · 561 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked James Duckworth56c175.54$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.945,41648.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L+14.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.