MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77b118c6dfd45cd34b21801835b4cc15ec30fcec1990797058986ef221879069
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,321
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,525
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,321 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 47c | 9,207$4,336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,870.69 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 53c | 8,399$4,452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,451.52 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 53c | 5,438$2,879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,878.87 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 47c | 3,372$1,570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,802 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Over | 52c | 2,360$1,227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,227.45 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Under | 48c | 2,250$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,170 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 54c | 2,101$1,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,134.54 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Under | 46c | 1,096$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.69 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 47c | 1,088$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.64 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 49c | 1,026$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.12 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 66c | 968.97$643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.69 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 55c | 908.73$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.8 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 46c | 861.72$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.9 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8f…761dbacked Over | 53c | 560.38$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7677…37c0backed Under | 47c | 500$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 328 | 50%164 W · 164 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaeb…9ec2backed Over | 53c | 479.99$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.39 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -8.9wins | -0.23per pick | 60cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 66c | 448.07$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.86 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x648f…bb7bbacked Under | 49c | 408.22$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.19 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…ca8dbacked Over | 53c | 283.02$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 432 | 47%203 W · 229 L | -19.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 47c | 274.99$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.74 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 47c | 255$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.19 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 47c | 234.05$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.05 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Under | 33c | 223.23$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.47 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 47c | 159$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.27 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 50c | 136.45$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.23 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 46c | 130.77$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.62 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 47c | 106.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.55 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c99…d91abacked Over | 52c | 86$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.72 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | -10.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 32c | 82.19$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…00f4backed Over | 74c | 76$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.24 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 46c | 70$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Under | 28c | 66.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.92 | 547 | 15.9%87 W · 460 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 47c | 66.49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.24 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40f5…55b9backed Over | 53c | 66.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Under | 45c | 61$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.55 | 880 | 46.4%408 W · 472 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 47c | 53.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.47 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Under | 49c | 51.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.11 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Under | 47c | 49.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.49 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 40c | 44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 63c | 43.6$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6458…2a3bbacked Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 60c | 40.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250f…4fc6backed Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 130 | 25.4%33 W · 97 L | -17.3wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x38ef…8800backed Under | 47c | 39.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.14 | 424 | 48.1%204 W · 220 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd107…add5backed Under | 49c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb515…7e2bbacked Over | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6f…6572backed Over | 58c | 29.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad6f…cc7cbacked Over | 56c | 27.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Over | 60c | 25.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 60c | 22.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x922d…d82bbacked Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…7199backed Over | 53c | 19.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 131 | 51.1%67 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5this page
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-4.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Washington Nationals vs. Colorado RockiesWashington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Colorado Rockies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 14.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 15.5Under won
- Will the game go to extra innings?: Washington Nationals vs. Colorado RockiesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.