MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a3ae40aa97f88e24708f8dde430a2109dd522f537320c8c19cf80f7b543c913
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $130,481
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $127,206
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $130,481 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Over | 46c | 44,445$20,445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,444.62 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x689c…6b1ebacked Over | 48c | 43,801$20,817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,816.98 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 48c | 31,585$15,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,488.76 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 56c | 25,079$13,933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,933.27 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 49c | 8,117$3,977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,139.67 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 53c | 4,149$2,182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,967.06 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 52c | 4,066$2,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,958.61 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 53c | 3,185$1,688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,497.03 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 53c | 3,072$1,628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,443.84 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 51c | 2,633$1,351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,281.7 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 49c | 1,798$881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$916.98 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 52c | 1,720$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$819.88 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Under | 53c | 1,290$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.26 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Under | 55c | 959.4$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.73 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Over | 47c | 869.57$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.7 | 383 | 53.5%205 W · 178 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 53c | 829.19$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.7 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 52c | 759.93$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.29 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 52c | 585$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.8 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 52c | 565.94$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.65 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 53c | 469.02$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.74 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 49c | 452.65$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.41 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Under | 53c | 429.97$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.09 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Under | 53c | 390$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.7 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…509dbacked Over | 47c | 319.15$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 58c | 317$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.81 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…e76ebacked Under | 53c | 297.07$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.62 | 172 | 55.8%96 W · 76 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Under | 48c | 290.94$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.29 | 231 | 40.3%93 W · 138 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Under | 52c | 260.51$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.98 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 53c | 249$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.03 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5505…aa44backed Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 515 | 45.2%233 W · 282 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 53c | 210$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.7 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed Under | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 326 | 52.5%171 W · 155 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 40c | 200$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff19…3ebebacked Under | 54c | 194.22$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.34 | 404 | 47.8%193 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 60c | 148.09$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.7 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 50c | 138$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.91 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 63c | 122.85$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.4 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c97…5c66backed Over | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -5.8wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 49c | 104.32$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.25 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b75…409ebacked Under | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 315 | 49.2%155 W · 160 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 49c | 95.12$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.51 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4b…0a04backed Under | 54c | 91.26$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.98 | 175 | 50.3%88 W · 87 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Under | 39c | 85$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.85 | 102 | 53.9%55 W · 47 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Under | 59c | 78$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.98 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c99…d91abacked Over | 45c | 76$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | -10.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c60…01febacked Over | 48c | 63.82$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.63 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 36c | 62.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ead…f0fbbacked Under | 54c | 51.85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e33…e44ebacked Under | 54c | 51.85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 50c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…abe3backed Under | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 351 | 49.3%173 W · 178 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x250f…4fc6backed Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 130 | 25.4%33 W · 97 L | -17.3wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Under | 54c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 1,299 | 50.9%661 W · 638 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6f…6572backed Under | 53c | 25.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a51…bf4cbacked Under | 54c | 25.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 278 | 52.2%145 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a62…5247backed Under | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 140 | 47.9%67 W · 73 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Under | 53c | 23.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 68c | 20.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff68…8379backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 269 | 40.5%109 W · 160 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x352b…abd8backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 60c | 19.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Under | 54c | 19.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 70c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5this page
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-4.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Washington Nationals vs. Colorado RockiesWashington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Colorado Rockies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 14.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 15.5Under won
- Will the game go to extra innings?: Washington Nationals vs. Colorado RockiesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.