TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Detroit Tigers vs. San Diego Padres

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
San Diego Padresof Detroit Tigers, San Diego Padres
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$369,744
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$382,118

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $369,744 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 198 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb45a…192cbacked Detroit Tigers49c100,000$49,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48,999.9641149.1%202 W · 209 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Detroit Tigers0c69,394$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.3340629.1%118 W · 288 L-2.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-42.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked San Diego Padres51c49,914$25,447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,466.811,52751.1%780 W · 747 L+7.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xebe5…b317backed Detroit Tigers50c48,618$24,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,150450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked San Diego Padres51c36,923$18,927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,996.21,02951.2%527 W · 502 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc807…c12bbacked San Diego Padres50c33,333$16,667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,666.550553.5%270 W · 235 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed San Diego Padres51c15,202$7,748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,454.0920548.3%99 W · 106 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked Detroit Tigers49c12,059$5,872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,872.315747.4%27 W · 30 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-16.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5919…95acbacked San Diego Padres51c11,340$5,791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,54911454.4%62 W · 52 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed San Diego Padres57c10,417$5,913 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,503.3915550.3%78 W · 77 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked San Diego Padres58c9,898$5,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,188.0821656.5%122 W · 94 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Detroit Tigers42c7,505$3,152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,152.119343.5%84 W · 109 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd36…a8acbacked Detroit Tigers2c6,210$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.212754.3%69 W · 58 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Detroit Tigers51c6,161$3,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,120.51,29347.3%611 W · 682 L-18.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Detroit Tigers48c5,345$2,566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,565.5265050.3%327 W · 323 L+0.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Detroit Tigers10c4,707$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473.392,38943.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Detroit Tigers48c4,166$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.681,40848.8%687 W · 721 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x698b…4426backed San Diego Padres51c4,000$2,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9607248.6%35 W · 37 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bec…4569backed San Diego Padres51c3,480$1,775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,705.2333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-34.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9007…2421backed San Diego Padres50c3,071$1,533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,538.591457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Detroit Tigers48c3,001$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,440.498464.3%54 W · 30 L+8.7wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+18.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Detroit Tigers49c3,000$1,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,469.9162447.6%297 W · 327 L-2.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Detroit Tigers49c2,500$1,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,224.9967250.1%337 W · 335 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4367…e904backed San Diego Padres53c2,342$1,253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,089.7366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+33.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed San Diego Padres50c2,323$1,162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,161.560451%308 W · 296 L-2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30a3…1943backed San Diego Padres48c2,227$1,069 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,157.824148.8%20 W · 21 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Detroit Tigers49c2,076$1,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,017.2475049.7%373 W · 377 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4285…cfb5backed San Diego Padres51c2,039$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$999.2216547.3%78 W · 87 L-10.3wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-12.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8861…4c2ebacked San Diego Padres52c1,919$998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$921.22333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Detroit Tigers38c1,801$683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$682.7112,32846.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L-66.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x685d…22d6backed Detroit Tigers42c1,786$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75011547%54 W · 61 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1e2…8a9bbacked San Diego Padres51c1,765$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$864.7114156%79 W · 62 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Detroit Tigers49c1,633$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800.161,92253.4%1,027 W · 895 L+28.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Detroit Tigers30c1,632$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.438,19246.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L+38.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked San Diego Padres71c1,582$1,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.118156.4%102 W · 79 L+11.8wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+4.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa877…2e20backed San Diego Padres51c1,481$755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$725.7372648.1%349 W · 377 L-17.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9901…6adbbacked Detroit Tigers29c1,401$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40311844.1%52 W · 66 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Detroit Tigers50c1,088$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5441,79750.4%906 W · 891 L-1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Detroit Tigers3c1,037$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281,1807.2%85 W · 1,095 L-13.6wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-37.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c6f…014ebacked San Diego Padres51c1,021$521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500.297448.6%36 W · 38 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked San Diego Padres50c971.39$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$485.71,04150.1%522 W · 519 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfeb3…4091backed Detroit Tigers50c950$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4756731.3%21 W · 46 L-10.9wins-0.16per pick48cpaid-33.6%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed San Diego Padres54c889.73$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.1914235.9%51 W · 91 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6f1…b386backed Detroit Tigers51c882.35$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4504141.5%17 W · 24 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Detroit Tigers51c801.1$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.0640846.1%188 W · 220 L-10.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Detroit Tigers53c760$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.364,08757.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L+66.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Detroit Tigers49c757.55$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.416,99950.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L+2.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Detroit Tigers49c601.67$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.821,58648.5%770 W · 816 L-2.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4328…11d2backed Detroit Tigers50c600$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3006749.3%33 W · 34 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd04…a64abacked San Diego Padres53c566.04$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.0432350.5%163 W · 160 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Detroit Tigers2c537.24$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.283929.4%37 W · 355 L+1.5wins0.00per pick9cpaid-40.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Detroit Tigers11c501.93$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.031,26947.4%602 W · 667 L-31.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x714d…6e05backed San Diego Padres53c501.48$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.76437.5%24 W · 40 L-5.8wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-21.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd51b…9606backed San Diego Padres50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25022548.4%109 W · 116 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed San Diego Padres52c500$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2409021.1%19 W · 71 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-51.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x69db…283abacked San Diego Padres55c429.09$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.094438.6%17 W · 27 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-16%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked San Diego Padres50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2003,30346.3%1,528 W · 1,775 L+22.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked San Diego Padres51c400$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19611125.2%28 W · 83 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-21.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Detroit Tigers50c392.72$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.8547447.3%224 W · 250 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked San Diego Padres51c392.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.1694734.4%326 W · 621 L-0.7wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9663…5b70backed San Diego Padres49c384$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.846152.5%32 W · 29 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Detroit Tigers35c333.56$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.069,81946.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L+39.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Detroit Tigers27c313.34$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.7254815.9%87 W · 461 L-41.1wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-44.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6c18…ab90backed San Diego Padres49c305.39$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.48580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick62cpaid+29.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5316…1d07backed Detroit Tigers48c300$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14411647.4%55 W · 61 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b54…d382backed San Diego Padres55c298.16$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.177757.1%44 W · 33 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x39dc…fc23backed San Diego Padres79c250$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.565651.2%336 W · 320 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0204…0e31backed Detroit Tigers36c248.09$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9018048.3%87 W · 93 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+18.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Detroit Tigers29c246.62$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.671,12144.1%494 W · 627 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-24.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4666…3a55backed San Diego Padres51c245.1$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.962360.9%14 W · 9 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+12.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xacae…6798backed Detroit Tigers52c236.88$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.183740.5%15 W · 22 L-3.7wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-23.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5706…514fbacked San Diego Padres51c223.53$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.53250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x068c…582ebacked San Diego Padres52c215.38$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.3838455.2%212 W · 172 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe65b…271bbacked San Diego Padres51c205.88$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.8813248.5%64 W · 68 L-7.4wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-10.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xec14…7fafbacked San Diego Padres51c203.92$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.9247849%234 W · 244 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb01d…46f0backed San Diego Padres50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1001,20149.1%590 W · 611 L+20.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe649…4e37backed Detroit Tigers50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10056946.9%267 W · 302 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b8b…95e3backed Detroit Tigers50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Detroit Tigers50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10044348.5%215 W · 228 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd73a…0f4ebacked San Diego Padres50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10041152.3%215 W · 196 L-13.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x450b…11d7backed San Diego Padres51c196.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.0812655.6%70 W · 56 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb7cb…bc54backed San Diego Padres51c196.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.0814953%79 W · 70 L+10.3wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+14.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x292e…172cbacked San Diego Padres51c196.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.0810056%56 W · 44 L+4.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6598…5f36backed San Diego Padres52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.313050%15 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85a7…d9f3backed San Diego Padres52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.318847.7%42 W · 46 L-0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09d3…3128backed Detroit Tigers50c189.4$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.71643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-18.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb107…a3f8backed Detroit Tigers49c160$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.42650%13 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83a3…6292backed San Diego Padres51c157.47$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.4766551.1%340 W · 325 L-17.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Detroit Tigers46c153.05$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.41,87452%975 W · 899 L+51.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed Detroit Tigers50c150$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.2517050%85 W · 85 L+8.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2942…a018backed San Diego Padres51c133.33$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.3313351.9%69 W · 64 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x569f…7a96backed Detroit Tigers50c132$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Detroit Tigers26c118.66$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.284,18750.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L+94.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d5f…84bfbacked Detroit Tigers50c115.3$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.161,05550.3%531 W · 524 L-10.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Detroit Tigers21c114$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.177753.2%41 W · 36 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked San Diego Padres79c114$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.9446239.6%183 W · 279 L-17.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0915…d08abacked Detroit Tigers49c110$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.92630.8%8 W · 18 L-4.5wins-0.17per pick48cpaid-41.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5668…eababacked San Diego Padres51c107.84$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.848351.8%43 W · 40 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…579cbacked San Diego Padres64c107$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.0219848.5%96 W · 102 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9865…f6afbacked Detroit Tigers21c106.37$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6531032.9%102 W · 208 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+2.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.