Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Athletic Club vs. Manchester United end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x796ac126ab368693035cccd190a8363b9bc64916235236a8908d9f7015fc79d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,320
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,029
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,320 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1321…1f21backed Yes | 30c | 10,000$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91c5…8ed0backed No | 70c | 9,996$6,997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,998.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9602…4d02backed No | 70c | 2,479$1,735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.65 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 69c | 1,545$1,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.53 | 330 | 55.2%182 W · 148 L | +21.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd69a…81eabacked Yes | 7c | 1,417$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.36 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9caf…94dcbacked Yes | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…ad85backed Yes | 31c | 973.68$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +4.7wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 69c | 895.45$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.59 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc774…b6e8backed Yes | 31c | 774.62$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x976f…acc7backed Yes | 31c | 645.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fab…485cbacked Yes | 29c | 585$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked No | 70c | 583.86$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.82 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +28%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x799c…bcefbacked Yes | 30c | 526.67$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb37…ff74backed Yes | 4c | 504.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd10…52ddbacked No | 71c | 400$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfe…b88ebacked Yes | 29c | 390$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a40…9eeebacked No | 71c | 370$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 29c | 345$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.05 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebb…061abacked Yes | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9b…0f44backed Yes | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ad…d11dbacked Yes | 28c | 260.79$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.02 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dab…fec6backed Yes | 29c | 231.55$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b06…b091backed No | 69c | 224.88$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.74 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 70c | 199.99$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5b…2b2dbacked Yes | 30c | 190.48$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48dd…1391backed No | 71c | 185$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b35…a749backed Yes | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9a…dcbebacked Yes | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa124…4891backed Yes | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 71c | 152.17$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.77 | 95 | 61.1%58 W · 37 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Yes | 35c | 150$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked No | 66c | 143.94$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.94 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +224.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed No | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4aa…9026backed Yes | 30c | 133.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x369e…d14fbacked Yes | 31c | 129.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae2d…8f7bbacked Yes | 31c | 129.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed No | 71c | 123.21$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.13 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf508…9c97backed Yes | 31c | 112.26$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb853…0d33backed Yes | 31c | 97.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed No | 70c | 94.99$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.31 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802b…a896backed No | 74c | 83.14$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6168…8199backed No | 74c | 81.99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Yes | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 181 | 45.9%83 W · 98 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed No | 72c | 73.9$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa319…bd72backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +100.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcef9…aa70backed No | 74c | 65.55$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Yes | 31c | 65.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6689…7cdabacked Yes | 30c | 65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed No | 70c | 58.97$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3435…1913backed No | 71c | 54.93$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…42c9backed Yes | 30c | 51.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c27…7ecbbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ff…ca90backed No | 69c | 46.87$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -32%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf4…15ddbacked No | 72c | 45.96$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87d9…96e0backed No | 71c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e0…1dd2backed No | 69c | 38.71$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed No | 73c | 34.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8948…b9e6backed No | 70c | 32.89$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 70c | 30.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 237 | 57%135 W · 102 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8eb…ff2abacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed No | 72c | 22.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 69c | 19.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 246 | 55.7%137 W · 109 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed No | 70c | 18.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23c0…564cbacked No | 69c | 17.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Athletic Club vs. Manchester United end in a draw?this page
- Will Athletic Club win on 2025-05-01?No won
- Will Manchester United win on 2025-05-01?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.