NBA · resolved market
Hawks vs. Warriors: O/U 236.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x798ac38bd1a94ab652291f0f4abdc9a60e03b8fdf537273898ad4da8797682ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,571
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,915
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,571 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 52c | 7,547$3,889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,657.41 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 48c | 7,079$3,392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,391.77 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x542c…9536backed Under | 63c | 4,999$3,169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,829.83 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e92…c03fbacked Under | 49c | 4,048$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,048.34 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 45c | 3,721$1,681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,681.45 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Under | 54c | 3,240$1,754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,486.13 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 51c | 1,961$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.78 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…32c2backed Under | 53c | 1,801$954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$846.44 | 415 | 53.3%221 W · 194 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…aa62backed Over | 47c | 1,790$841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$841.3 | 583 | 47%274 W · 309 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Over | 52c | 1,060$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.2 | 560 | 43.9%246 W · 314 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 73c | 1,002$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.68 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Under | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 227 | 52%118 W · 109 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 50c | 508.73$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.28 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 31c | 440.74$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.54 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x266b…8da2backed Under | 69c | 433$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.23 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 46c | 291.48$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.8 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 46c | 267.09$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.44 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc091…3d42backed Over | 53c | 207$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.69 | 543 | 51.6%280 W · 263 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…e4a3backed Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 410 | 52%213 W · 197 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 51c | 199.26$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.31 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 52c | 195$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Over | 17c | 169$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 288 | 42.7%123 W · 165 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8031…67e0backed Over | 49c | 160$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.4 | 258 | 46.9%121 W · 137 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa61b…1872backed Under | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…e5b8backed Under | 51c | 115.88$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.88 | 162 | 61.7%100 W · 62 L | +15.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 51c | 105.57$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.73 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ab…c3acbacked Under | 53c | 101.89$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.89 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Under | 47c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d9…0092backed Under | 56c | 63.13$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.04 | 762 | 50.4%384 W · 378 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over | 47c | 59.71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf232…4fc6backed Under | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 127 | 66.9%85 W · 42 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 45c | 43.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…ad8dbacked Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e5…9b73backed Under | 53c | 40.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 425 | 51.3%218 W · 207 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 661 | 43.4%287 W · 374 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x829f…ccfdbacked Under | 53c | 36.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 173 | 53.8%93 W · 80 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Under | 51c | 36.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 874 | 53.3%466 W · 408 L | +19.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…7aecbacked Under | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 436 | 47.9%209 W · 227 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97b8…0f5dbacked Under | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 139 | 53.2%74 W · 65 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5be5…8d0cbacked Under | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…389dbacked Under | 52c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 413 | 54%223 W · 190 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…259dbacked Under | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90e1…5848backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked Under | 53c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 379 | 49.3%187 W · 192 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f78…bfcabacked Under | 70c | 17.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 127 | 27.6%35 W · 92 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…f545backed Under | 72c | 15.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hawks vs. Warriors: O/U 236.5this page
- 1H Spread: Warriors (-3.5)Hawks won
- Hawks vs. WarriorsHawks won
- Hawks vs. Warriors: 1H MoneylineHawks won
- Hawks vs. Warriors: O/U 233.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Warriors: O/U 234.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Warriors: O/U 235.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Warriors: O/U 237.5Under won
- Spread: Warriors (-5.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Warriors (-6.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Warriors (-7.5)Hawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.