NBA · resolved market
Hawks vs. Warriors: O/U 233.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a389593ae2d56150cea79bc8fc26d435fcbb4a3b923fc89448a758a0aa8486a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,419
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,099
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,419 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x542c…9536backed Over | 58c | 3,006$1,741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,264.55 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Over | 36c | 1,783$641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,141.93 | 185 | 36.8%68 W · 117 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56be…57eebacked Over | 71c | 1,328$945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.8 | 211 | 43.1%91 W · 120 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 51c | 1,324$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$653.87 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf059…6dd9backed Under | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 492 | 46.3%228 W · 264 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x892e…24a8backed Over | 66c | 1,004$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.28 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 64cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…cbe7backed Under | 66c | 729$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.14 | 589 | 51.3%302 W · 287 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Under | 19c | 657$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.83 | 390 | 18.2%71 W · 319 L | +27.6wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Over | 41c | 648.66$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.71 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Under | 50c | 558.6$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.3 | 232 | 50.4%117 W · 115 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 53c | 554.08$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.31 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Over | 53c | 521$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.87 | 288 | 42.7%123 W · 165 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…69ebbacked Under | 60c | 448.53$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269 | 629 | 48.6%306 W · 323 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 45c | 420.38$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.34 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7289…8d16backed Over | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.14 | 133 | 54.1%72 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 51c | 337.29$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.27 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Under | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 432 | 46.1%199 W · 233 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 57c | 206$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.58 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 51c | 201$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.49 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Under | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 65c | 170.5$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.52 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f4…5bc0backed Over | 53c | 112.77$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 44c | 105.8$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.55 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…26f0backed Under | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 95 | 15.8%15 W · 80 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Under | 41c | 90.77$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.57 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9069…9c14backed Over | 59c | 84.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.39 | 145 | 57.2%83 W · 62 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Under | 63c | 76.68$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.69 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 39c | 66.26$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.49 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9202…8ef9backed Under | 43c | 57.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Under | 42c | 57.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 49c | 54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…ce8ebacked Under | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 217 | 56.7%123 W · 94 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x130c…782cbacked Over | 45c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 144 | 20.1%29 W · 115 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 46c | 41.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 58c | 35.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4883…98abbacked Under | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 77cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 48c | 31.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a59…e94cbacked Over | 61c | 29.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0969…b289backed Under | 48c | 29.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 222 | 47.3%105 W · 117 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 58c | 28.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 415 | 56.9%236 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 42c | 28.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc80…576bbacked Under | 79c | 25.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ac…e166backed Over | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 187 | 57.2%107 W · 80 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 879 | 50.6%445 W · 434 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…ee2ebacked Over | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked Over | 58c | 17.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 379 | 49.3%187 W · 192 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hawks vs. Warriors: O/U 233.5this page
- 1H Spread: Warriors (-3.5)Hawks won
- Hawks vs. WarriorsHawks won
- Hawks vs. Warriors: 1H MoneylineHawks won
- Hawks vs. Warriors: O/U 234.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Warriors: O/U 235.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Warriors: O/U 236.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Warriors: O/U 237.5Under won
- Spread: Warriors (-5.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Warriors (-6.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Warriors (-7.5)Hawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.