NBA · resolved market
Hawks vs. Warriors: O/U 234.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85354fa7885c9b2ba2786978b1c23a9fc5538720b29c51d509bc6112a7c139b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,265
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,377
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,265 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6ee…697bbacked Under | 49c | 20,696$10,128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,127.7 | 203 | 52.2%106 W · 97 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 49c | 14,474$7,059 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,415.4 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 51c | 9,392$4,820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,820.44 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Over | 51c | 8,000$4,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,920 | 207 | 44.9%93 W · 114 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 50c | 7,395$3,670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,724.45 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 51c | 6,097$3,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,006.11 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Under | 51c | 3,433$1,756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,755.51 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae8…c2a8backed Over | 51c | 2,455$1,252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,202.95 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +12.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc617…a854backed Over | 51c | 2,040$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999.37 | 426 | 48.1%205 W · 221 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf0…1e2abacked Under | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 49c | 1,639$807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$832.66 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Under | 47c | 1,500$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705 | 491 | 42.6%209 W · 282 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 49c | 1,431$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736.22 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f64…098ebacked Over | 52c | 1,346$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.15 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x783c…6900backed Over | 47c | 1,300$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689 | 104 | 46.2%48 W · 56 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 48c | 1,054$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.21 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 52c | 580$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.4 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Over | 53c | 490.57$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.57 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 45c | 457.57$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.12 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e2…8e9ebacked Over | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 96 | 59.4%57 W · 39 L | +8.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 50c | 336.19$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.83 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Over | 55c | 279$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.55 | 502 | 41.2%207 W · 295 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x892e…24a8backed Over | 65c | 246.17$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.16 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 64cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 50c | 224.55$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.69 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 36c | 213.61$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.17 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 44c | 213.22$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.82 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa408…d831backed Under | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 146 | 47.9%70 W · 76 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 49c | 203.18$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Under | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 617 | 40.7%251 W · 366 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc091…3d42backed Under | 51c | 172$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.22 | 543 | 51.6%280 W · 263 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 45c | 138$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.1 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 46c | 106.35$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.92 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd679…91a0backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 841 | 50.3%423 W · 418 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.75 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd77d…b01cbacked Over | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 269 | 56.1%151 W · 118 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a64…6769backed Over | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 173 | 53.2%92 W · 81 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d9…0092backed Under | 52c | 66.78$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.89 | 762 | 50.4%384 W · 378 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Over | 50c | 64.22$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 49c | 61.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Under | 52c | 59.62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65d2…4abfbacked Over | 57c | 58.43$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.12 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b50…5c6abacked Under | 57c | 50.56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 69 | 24.6%17 W · 52 L | -7.2wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -17%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Under | 50c | 48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 50c | 43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc29d…3352backed Over | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 159 | 59.1%94 W · 65 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 661 | 43.4%287 W · 374 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dcb…9fdcbacked Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +17%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Under | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd236…a65ebacked Under | 49c | 23.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 522 | 46.6%243 W · 279 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Over | 55c | 22.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b7…fa4bbacked Over | 53c | 19.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hawks vs. Warriors: O/U 234.5this page
- 1H Spread: Warriors (-3.5)Hawks won
- Hawks vs. WarriorsHawks won
- Hawks vs. Warriors: 1H MoneylineHawks won
- Hawks vs. Warriors: O/U 233.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Warriors: O/U 235.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Warriors: O/U 236.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Warriors: O/U 237.5Under won
- Spread: Warriors (-5.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Warriors (-6.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Warriors (-7.5)Hawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.