TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 23?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,067
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,902

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,067 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf0d8…59f5backed Yes51c1,081$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.29450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+24.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff82…bd3cbacked Yes42c399.99$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2301866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+26.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8b6f…b9bebacked No31c380.99$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.4122446.4%104 W · 120 L+31.1wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+35.4%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes49c299.43$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.914,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x655c…1a00backed No49c270$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.736150.4%182 W · 179 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f9e…c96bbacked No50c234.19$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.7141331%128 W · 285 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+0.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes61c180.03$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.172,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No54c157.34$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.3510,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed Yes76c128.16$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.412,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked Yes47c114.88$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.2848743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0729…5f54backed Yes23c105$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.9267158.6%393 W · 278 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No49c104.2$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.999,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.585049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed No50c93.37$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.9390555.6%503 W · 402 L-1.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No51c89.83$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.912,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd71…1281backed No46c86.42$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6553951.9%280 W · 259 L+54.4wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No61c84.02$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.091,55056.7%879 W · 671 L-83.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed No54c83.2$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.9443848.6%213 W · 225 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5500…b4f6backed Yes28c82.15$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.1617536%63 W · 112 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes60c81.49$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.722,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes24c80$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.856,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes68c72.67$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.496,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5edc…bbadbacked No32c70$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.344366.1%293 W · 150 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed No49c69.38$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked Yes40c67.29$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.652,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes27c60.67$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.292,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf114…6eccbacked Yes33c60.11$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.341,09074.2%809 W · 281 L+179.3wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+34.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes49c60$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.63,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No49c59.98$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4580050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes46c57.33$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.912,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No30c56.21$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.14,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes57c55.33$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.912,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes45c55.09$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.0918567.6%125 W · 60 L+28.7wins+0.16per pick52cpaid+34.6%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes45c55$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.282,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe29f…cdd8backed No55c54.55$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3016641%68 W · 98 L+8.3wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a1f…4877backed Yes39c53.33$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.5380130.8%247 W · 554 L+1.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb49f…1821backed No43c53.09$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.951,06153.2%564 W · 497 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No57c52.64$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1387629.2%256 W · 620 L-53.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa955…4b3dbacked Yes38c52.63$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.63540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-16.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf92c…87f7backed No55c52.15$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.681060%6 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13a9…fc29backed No55c52.15$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.682152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No52c51.76$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8860054.2%325 W · 275 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d0f…b52abacked No58c50.83$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.487855.1%43 W · 35 L+6.6wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+17.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes41c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.51,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No37c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.51,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed No49c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.570148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89cc…9e01backed Yes49c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.59752.6%51 W · 46 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec6a…65e1backed Yes54c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0947…9e92backed No44c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2258152%302 W · 279 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf34f…44eebacked No48c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+46.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae5f…bc30backed No40c49.29$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.519339.8%37 W · 56 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb782…aa2dbacked Yes54c46.67$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.672462.5%15 W · 9 L+3.5wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+22.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes43c46.51$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.5162137.7%234 W · 387 L+0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35fc…ac54backed No37c42.67$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5924751.8%128 W · 119 L+24.7wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+23.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdb46…56e7backed Yes51c42.38$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.7242148%202 W · 219 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae4c…d114backed No73c42$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4519148.7%93 W · 98 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked Yes42c40.65$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.581,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed Yes37c40.38$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.32,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5647…de1dbacked Yes50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2047935.3%169 W · 310 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed Yes63c40$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.842,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x104d…5abbbacked No43c36.35$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.653336.4%12 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-18.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2af3…c472backed No54c32.15$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.361735.3%6 W · 11 L-3.2wins-0.19per pick54cpaid-39.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed No54c32.15$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.361,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbaf7…b963backed Yes39c30$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.33652.8%19 W · 17 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x94ae…d801backed No62c30$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.613950.4%70 W · 69 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No55c28.33$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.535,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No63c26$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.495,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadda…684cbacked No76c25.66$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.58580%68 W · 17 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick74cpaid+6.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No72c25$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes44c25$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf10e…4308backed No60c25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1523673.3%173 W · 63 L+28.6wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+27.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xe0fe…e62abacked No60c25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1523677.1%182 W · 54 L+23.3wins+0.10per pick67cpaid+16.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6ad7…347abacked No65c22.95$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1572952.4%382 W · 347 L+34.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No62c22.63$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0364859.1%383 W · 265 L-21.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No63c22$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.845,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1917…138bbacked No49c21.18$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3633746.9%158 W · 179 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x14ad…69f5backed No55c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1126744.2%118 W · 149 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86cc…f46ebacked No54c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.82050%10 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6236…6881backed No56c19.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.229354.3%159 W · 134 L-25.6wins-0.09per pick63cpaid-15.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9631…a38cbacked Yes70c19$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.749750.3%250 W · 247 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+24.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No78c18.31$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.211,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.