Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70f160095e69ab7ef401619f8985ef64225b72e5cd784da74d750e92a41ac358
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,535
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,703
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,535 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 41c | 639.75$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.77 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 10c | 541.34$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.68 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 526.48$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.34 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 259.52$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.24 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 31c | 215.84$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.24 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 188.74$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.78 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 13c | 186.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 44c | 175.34$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.52 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 60c | 140$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 59c | 128$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.74 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 127.84$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.94 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 63c | 111.65$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.26 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 64c | 105$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92e3…ab49backed Yes | 36c | 105$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 53c | 99.79$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.1 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 65c | 97.84$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 39c | 92.39$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.44 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 56c | 90.27$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.3 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 60c | 86.88$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.51 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead3…b125backed Yes | 40c | 85$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 41c | 85$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.85 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 32c | 80.14$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 40c | 75.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…3f63backed Yes | 41c | 72.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 138 | 39.1%54 W · 84 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…902dbacked No | 61c | 71.85$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.02 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 63c | 70$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 69.35$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.53 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 59c | 67.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.39 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 64c | 62.41$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.51 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 69c | 62$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 32c | 60.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 36c | 59.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 37c | 57.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 55.14$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.53 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa955…4b3dbacked Yes | 37c | 54.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 37c | 53.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c2…f88bbacked Yes | 69c | 52.62$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.31 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 54c | 52.47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.09 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 41c | 52.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 63c | 50.95$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 49c | 50.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x891a…1d79backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 41c | 49.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 38c | 47.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…cdd8backed Yes | 43c | 46.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 57c | 44.94$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 64c | 44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 62c | 42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 64c | 41.58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 61c | 40.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 37c | 37.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 63c | 34.62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 51c | 33.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 56c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 41c | 32.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…4331backed Yes | 41c | 32.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 37c | 31.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…f296backed Yes | 36c | 30.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 39c | 30.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf7…b963backed Yes | 38c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9599…3daebacked Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 37c | 27.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadd6…2a5fbacked No | 65c | 27.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 43c | 23.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 64c | 22.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 58c | 21.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 57c | 21.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 195 | 65.6%128 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe775…01d2backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 62c | 19.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 59c | 19.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 68c | 18.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa343…68d8backed No | 64c | 17.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 72c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 67c | 15.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.