Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a5e5c13e65757c12fec4fd3fb4da5fe069e480d92b537d914950ac59f0bbd64
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,162
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,832
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,162 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 5c | 1,179$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.22 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 31c | 932.72$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.19 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 557.45$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.76 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 15c | 499.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 27c | 443.09$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.7 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 35c | 424.23$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.31 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 419$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.29 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 13c | 404.17$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.61 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 32c | 398.1$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.75 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 21c | 363.85$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.31 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ab…3c91backed Yes | 25c | 324.67$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.75 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed Yes | 18c | 299.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 42c | 284.39$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.38 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 72c | 242.16$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.24 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d57…11f8backed No | 69c | 240.03$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.68 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed No | 69c | 236.82$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.75 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 20c | 231.79$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.54 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 30c | 210.32$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.09 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 37c | 209.06$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.68 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 15c | 208$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.06 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed Yes | 33c | 200.42$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.48 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +5.9wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 27c | 187.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 184$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.75 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27a0…cecdbacked Yes | 28c | 180.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93a6…b1c2backed Yes | 22c | 180$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 22c | 177.81$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.96 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 16c | 176.9$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 76c | 169.6$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.03 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 27c | 165.18$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.76 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 17c | 143.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 40c | 140$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.9 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 18c | 132.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f10…563bbacked Yes | 19c | 130.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 73c | 129.61$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.18 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 22c | 129.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f86…0b92backed Yes | 41c | 126.09$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 29c | 123.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.39 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 121.97$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d2…9145backed Yes | 18c | 121.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 85 | 9.4%8 W · 77 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 15c | 120.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f02…baadbacked Yes | 12c | 120$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 119.99$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c28…a73bbacked Yes | 13c | 112.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 73c | 106.23$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77ad…82bdbacked Yes | 17c | 106.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 68c | 104.85$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.97 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca69…7153backed No | 77c | 103.43$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.79 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 24c | 102.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 33c | 100.49$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.35 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 173 | 10.4%18 W · 155 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 78c | 96$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 54c | 90.21$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.33 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 25c | 90.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 77c | 88.43$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d14…c13abacked Yes | 27c | 87.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 73c | 84.85$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 83.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 20c | 82.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 23c | 77.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…b52abacked Yes | 48c | 75.18$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.39 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 42c | 69.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 67.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 15c | 66.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 27c | 65.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 65.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 34c | 64.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed Yes | 22c | 64.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked Yes | 47c | 64.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 75c | 64.25$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 48c | 62.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.77 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3701…603cbacked Yes | 32c | 62.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x490e…123abacked Yes | 18c | 61.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | +6.8wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 20c | 60.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 21c | 60.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 71c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 61c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…cdd8backed Yes | 43c | 57.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc950…9420backed Yes | 21c | 57.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 130 | 35.4%46 W · 84 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 72c | 56.54$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb4…4ea8backed Yes | 49c | 54.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 75 | 62.7%47 W · 28 L | +10.3wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0c73…6ab8backed Yes | 24c | 54.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 36c | 52.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x55be…fb40backed Yes | 19c | 51.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a68…13f0backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…a4a4backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 192 | 17.2%33 W · 159 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x661a…e9e8backed No | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ed…0ce8backed Yes | 52c | 49.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffd…1e7cbacked No | 66c | 49.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed Yes | 34c | 47.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f25…bee4backed Yes | 26c | 46.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfab…602dbacked Yes | 35c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 23c | 43.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbc…9e9bbacked Yes | 29c | 43.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed Yes | 30c | 42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed No | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 29c | 39.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 58c | 39.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.