Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcec7094038a4337c5052747c90c4d165b7326ff93a11fe9c64acb88cb4fc4505
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,187
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,719
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,187 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe25c…7908backed Yes | 40c | 1,873$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,118.1 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 60c | 1,684$1,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.09 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 11c | 1,276$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,141.32 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…9ac2backed No | 4c | 1,192$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 40c | 1,098$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.81 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 16c | 955.86$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$804.33 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed Yes | 80c | 791.7$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.1 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 2c | 632.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.43 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 46c | 618.77$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.29 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 32c | 593.84$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.62 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 8c | 551.74$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.23 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x216e…4e32backed Yes | 67c | 524.3$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.3 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 55c | 496.6$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.8 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 9c | 478.56$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.85 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 448.93$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.61 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 11c | 448.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.54 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 5c | 423.78$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 75c | 419$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.22 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 24c | 398.72$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.63 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 54c | 396.9$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.29 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 5c | 372.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 53c | 361.92$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.81 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed Yes | 64c | 337.48$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.37 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 45c | 296.12$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.78 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 16c | 276.72$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.07 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 11c | 260.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 14c | 257.14$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.73 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 26c | 227.96$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 57c | 227$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.58 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f10…563bbacked Yes | 36c | 220.87$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.3 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 6c | 215.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.44 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 9c | 214.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 78c | 203.95$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.56 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ab…3c91backed No | 47c | 200.51$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.74 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 57c | 194.16$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.27 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 191.34$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x348f…8378backed Yes | 40c | 191.25$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.57 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 57c | 176.26$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.3 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93a6…b1c2backed Yes | 15c | 172.06$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.55 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55be…fb40backed Yes | 6c | 169.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.33 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 10c | 158.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.44 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 56c | 155.1$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.39 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe4…2a32backed Yes | 56c | 153.59$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.47 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 36c | 153.24$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.93 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 28c | 150.98$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.09 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 51c | 149$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.57 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 71c | 138$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.44 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 31c | 137.51$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.92 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9db…2ac6backed Yes | 8c | 134.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.71 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 12c | 126.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.8 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 22c | 124$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.54 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 51c | 123.77$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.05 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 48c | 119.04$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.33 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 21c | 116.16$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.74 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02b6…e113backed Yes | 78c | 115.26$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 53c | 114.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.78 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 23c | 112.73$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.07 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 45c | 108.14$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.9 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 56c | 107.36$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 62c | 104.85$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.56 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.61 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 50c | 98.89$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.98 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 52c | 98$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.72 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc5…33d3backed No | 65c | 89.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.48 | 98 | 57.1%56 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 25c | 87.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4369…a611backed No | 71c | 85.91$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d9…c3cbbacked Yes | 62c | 81.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.21 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8699…f6bebacked Yes | 42c | 80.87$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | +12.4wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x340c…f130backed Yes | 70c | 76.69$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.69 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 19c | 71.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cae…e877backed Yes | 14c | 70.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.83 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 20c | 70.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.42 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 51c | 70.16$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.21 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 29c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.46 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7445…268fbacked No | 61c | 67.17$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.27 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffd…1e7cbacked Yes | 75c | 64.12$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 21c | 60.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 48c | 58.97$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.92 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb4…4ea8backed No | 68c | 57.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.67 | 75 | 62.7%47 W · 28 L | +10.3wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 52c | 52.3$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.28 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 35c | 51.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 50c | 50.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.19 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83cd…e218backed Yes | 50c | 50.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.15 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5f…c91dbacked Yes | 53c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.71 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x661a…e9e8backed No | 73c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff7…82c5backed Yes | 30c | 49.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.54 | 115 | 15.7%18 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 26c | 48.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.58 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 60c | 48.3$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd391…13bdbacked No | 42c | 48.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38b3…1e06backed Yes | 35c | 45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.21 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f79…d807backed Yes | 65c | 43.33$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 39c | 42.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 38c | 39.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 47c | 37.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 46c | 36.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.54 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 30c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 44c | 32.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 69c | 28.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.