TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: G2 NORD vs Team Orange Gaming (BO1) - Prime League 1st Division Regular Season

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
G2 NORDof G2 NORD, Team Orange Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$57,419
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$62,892

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,419 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0daa…c9dabacked G2 NORD77c5,656$4,336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,319.831369.2%9 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked G2 NORD71c4,606$3,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,345.859952.8%316 W · 283 L-3.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-12.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Team Orange Gaming19c3,532$671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671.161,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6dd…c6b6backed Team Orange Gaming1c3,226$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.332114.3%3 W · 18 L-3.9wins-0.18per pick33cpaid-74.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe308…25cdbacked Team Orange Gaming38c2,608$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$980.3566437.2%247 W · 417 L-12.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e15…7531backed Team Orange Gaming20c2,045$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.9910541.9%44 W · 61 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-1.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x668d…e471backed Team Orange Gaming19c1,855$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.262441.7%10 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-24.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c67…9896backed Team Orange Gaming18c1,738$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.3950945.8%233 W · 276 L+0.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa941…ec2ebacked G2 NORD79c1,185$936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.8251160.3%308 W · 203 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ac8…45c4backed G2 NORD79c1,168$918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.4251044.9%229 W · 281 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Team Orange Gaming21c1,121$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.481,22448.3%591 W · 633 L+26.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdb8…e969backed Team Orange Gaming24c997.15$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.041,24652.6%656 W · 590 L+4.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8791…4c9abacked Team Orange Gaming24c988.65$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.625735.1%20 W · 37 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-16%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea58…930fbacked G2 NORD67c980.2$657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.471,21644.4%540 W · 676 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed Team Orange Gaming29c956.28$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.1469539.1%272 W · 423 L-36.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-29.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Team Orange Gaming22c919.96$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.2314228.2%40 W · 102 L-9.6wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-30.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Orange Gaming36c892.4$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.31,25838.6%485 W · 773 L-61.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked G2 NORD74c868.25$646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.6782044%361 W · 459 L+0.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6aa7…db93backed G2 NORD76c788.6$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.523674.6%176 W · 60 L+17.9wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+10.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe74b…ee88backed Team Orange Gaming35c729.4$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.2986451.4%444 W · 420 L+52.1wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+13.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa469…0782backed G2 NORD78c694.89$542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.881,32753.3%707 W · 620 L+37.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Team Orange Gaming28c626.14$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.541,73144.2%765 W · 966 L-28.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdca…66ebbacked Team Orange Gaming22c585.2$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.7496057.4%551 W · 409 L+22.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Team Orange Gaming13c552.64$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.771,07926%281 W · 798 L-99.0wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-46.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed G2 NORD74c532.48$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.262,52147.3%1,193 W · 1,328 L-34.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c1…3e0bbacked G2 NORD77c500$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11563646.9%298 W · 338 L-19.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x260c…7130backed Team Orange Gaming21c500$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10523932.6%78 W · 161 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fcb…78cfbacked G2 NORD76c479.68$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.9264849.8%323 W · 325 L-25.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked Team Orange Gaming31c470.58$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.3573237.7%276 W · 456 L-51.5wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-35.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd50c…76c3backed Team Orange Gaming33c427.84$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.6814554.5%79 W · 66 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56f8…8c55backed Team Orange Gaming25c375.29$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.659640.6%39 W · 57 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4877…25edbacked G2 NORD79c351.21$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.76850%4 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe450…a40abacked G2 NORD80c308.75$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.7512263.1%77 W · 45 L+0.2wins0.00per pick63cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed G2 NORD76c305.38$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.9567931.8%216 W · 463 L-31.9wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-35.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5198…7a53backed G2 NORD66c296.85$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.932944.8%13 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-15.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x682d…4cd6backed Team Orange Gaming9c289.25$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3945618.9%86 W · 370 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-45.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0370…d000backed G2 NORD63c288.01$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.5612052.5%63 W · 57 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7e7…2779backed G2 NORD78c282.97$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.259662.5%60 W · 36 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcc30…c8a5backed Team Orange Gaming22c259.96$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.1981333%268 W · 545 L-43.4wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-14.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc397…bb3bbacked G2 NORD79c249.97$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.491,67559.3%993 W · 682 L+96.8wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+9.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4820…c613backed Team Orange Gaming20c238.58$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.67435.1%26 W · 48 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x398d…b8d6backed Team Orange Gaming24c223.07$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.464451.2%330 W · 314 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe59…0d2ebacked Team Orange Gaming18c214.51$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.3560538.8%235 W · 370 L-1.5wins0.00per pick39cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34d5…e0c1backed Team Orange Gaming23c206.25$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.3942852.3%224 W · 204 L+19.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Team Orange Gaming18c205.97$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4432542.2%137 W · 188 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-0.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed G2 NORD80c200$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401,52550.6%771 W · 754 L+3.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13b5…7e1cbacked G2 NORD78c198.31$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.4610766.4%71 W · 36 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc33d…0d40backed Team Orange Gaming22c193.61$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.8316224.1%39 W · 123 L-21.1wins-0.13per pick37cpaid-56.8%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xe235…aba2backed G2 NORD63c185.44$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6957947.3%274 W · 305 L-14.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x52d0…2e25backed Team Orange Gaming26c182.64$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd73a…0f4ebacked G2 NORD76c179.58$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.126859.7%160 W · 108 L-1.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Team Orange Gaming20c156.78$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7586144.1%380 W · 481 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5625…6c2abacked G2 NORD63c155.21$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.4318542.2%78 W · 107 L-10.4wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-21.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Team Orange Gaming17c148.75$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.071,93135.9%693 W · 1,238 L-98.4wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-23.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x750c…d430backed G2 NORD77c148.45$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.332753.5%175 W · 152 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f05…85c5backed G2 NORD66c148.42$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.4639861.8%246 W · 152 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6fa…ac8fbacked Team Orange Gaming35c138.16$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.0464048.1%308 W · 332 L+13.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1430…a753backed G2 NORD79c125.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.463959%23 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…a2cbbacked Team Orange Gaming39c125.03$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.1624554.3%133 W · 112 L+10.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x058f…68b6backed Team Orange Gaming23c124.62$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.61728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-46.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc33…aa3ebacked Team Orange Gaming25c124.15$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0440237.8%152 W · 250 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb5a…0ce5backed Team Orange Gaming40c120.5$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.24957.1%28 W · 21 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc221…fe97backed Team Orange Gaming41c117.63$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.235154.9%28 W · 23 L+6.6wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+37.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Team Orange Gaming25c112.49$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.61,83117.1%313 W · 1,518 L-236.0wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-46%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x7a3e…5d9dbacked Team Orange Gaming17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1748042.3%203 W · 277 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2ae…0864backed G2 NORD73c100$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.274462.2%463 W · 281 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xced8…221ebacked G2 NORD75c99.99$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2547444.1%209 W · 265 L+1.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x093d…615bbacked G2 NORD79c99.99$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2115955.3%88 W · 71 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e86…7932backed Team Orange Gaming19c96.74$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0761150.6%309 W · 302 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a3c…5727backed Team Orange Gaming20c95.2$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.044146.3%19 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Team Orange Gaming12c93.43$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.322,70735.9%972 W · 1,735 L-152.3wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-31.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x24bb…3e49backed Team Orange Gaming31c93$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8342124.7%104 W · 317 L-51.1wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-47%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xc51f…e115backed G2 NORD65c90.37$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.6311665.5%76 W · 40 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x39e4…f089backed Team Orange Gaming21c88.46$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.581040%4 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-18.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb9f…36dfbacked Team Orange Gaming22c86.65$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0658649.8%292 W · 294 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0599…3c6abacked Team Orange Gaming37c85.99$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8282260.9%501 W · 321 L+0.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20ec…fa43backed Team Orange Gaming17c83.93$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2540645.6%185 W · 221 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbf0…4046backed G2 NORD67c80$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.811361.9%70 W · 43 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34c5…db89backed G2 NORD79c79.47$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.6811959.7%71 W · 48 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+15.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2091…b4f8backed Team Orange Gaming28c78.02$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.031,17547.4%557 W · 618 L+42.9wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1892…b299backed Team Orange Gaming32c75.08$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9817943.6%78 W · 101 L-8.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed G2 NORD71c73.68$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.5278043.1%336 W · 444 L-22.3wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-25.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x12c4…ff8cbacked Team Orange Gaming38c70.81$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0637643.1%162 W · 214 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0caa…b2bdbacked Team Orange Gaming19c69.31$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.420556.6%116 W · 89 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9bd9…084fbacked G2 NORD80c65.85$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.3941651.2%213 W · 203 L-1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1dfa…a0e4backed G2 NORD79c62.49$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.1223361.8%144 W · 89 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe644…76b6backed G2 NORD80c61.62$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.32771.4%5 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick71cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked G2 NORD80c60$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122,98444.5%1,329 W · 1,655 L-94.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6bb…6b39backed G2 NORD73c60$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.210435.6%37 W · 67 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-27.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6ab…5080backed G2 NORD80c59.02$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.819257.8%111 W · 81 L-11.9wins-0.06per pick64cpaid-10.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x06ce…c202backed Team Orange Gaming40c57.14$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-33.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3cb…bda8backed Team Orange Gaming36c53.92$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2321847.2%103 W · 115 L-8.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Team Orange Gaming29c52.73$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.111,06154.7%580 W · 481 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43ff…a491backed Team Orange Gaming32c50.96$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2818554.1%100 W · 85 L+18.3wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+5.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd866…55e0backed Team Orange Gaming35c50.04$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.764047.5%19 W · 21 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-22.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad69…7397backed Team Orange Gaming38c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198140.7%33 W · 48 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c07…5feabacked G2 NORD70c48.91$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.6716555.2%91 W · 74 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc7e…70ecbacked G2 NORD78c48$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.7439044.6%174 W · 216 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x22cc…d068backed G2 NORD63c46.93$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.373043.3%13 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-23.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked G2 NORD63c46.74$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.122,83641.4%1,175 W · 1,661 L-12.9wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.