TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Mavericks vs. Kings: O/U 233.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,314
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,056

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,314 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xead0…f3babacked Under49c6,490$3,180 inWon+$3,310.031,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dea…3792backed Over51c2,353$1,200 inLost-$1,2006756.7%38 W · 29 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over48c1,967$949 inLost-$948.599,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3a1…3529backed Over51c1,945$992 inLost-$9925444.4%24 W · 30 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Over51c1,569$800 inLost-$80022756.8%129 W · 98 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea22…747abacked Over2c1,510$30 inLost-$30.4967921.4%145 W · 534 L+32.4wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+33.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Under52c1,442$750 inWon+$692.3165339.5%258 W · 395 L-24.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3242…0e0bbacked Over50c663.76$333 inLost-$33321247.2%100 W · 112 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa485…92a5backed Under51c587.76$300 inWon+$2883148.4%15 W · 16 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over40c573.03$230 inLost-$230.498,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Under49c500$245 inWon+$2552,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4cf…2d96backed Over51c389.04$198 inLost-$198.415446.3%25 W · 29 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64c6…244cbacked Under52c300.4$156 inWon+$144.49445.7%43 W · 51 L-11.3wins-0.12per pick58cpaid-21.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3de6…405cbacked Over51c235.29$120 inLost-$12043453.2%231 W · 203 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd473…3febbacked Under50c200$100 inWon+$10024955.8%139 W · 110 L+0.7wins0.00per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ade…e692backed Over51c194.53$99 inLost-$99.2110451%53 W · 51 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x92cf…8b35backed Under52c192.31$100 inWon+$92.311,11052%577 W · 533 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d14…1eb4backed Under51c98.04$50 inWon+$48.0437352%194 W · 179 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1aa…054ebacked Over48c70$34 inLost-$33.66839.7%27 W · 41 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d73…be4fbacked Over51c49.41$25 inLost-$258234.1%28 W · 54 L-8.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-23.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x84ca…0d75backed Over51c49.02$25 inLost-$2512735.4%45 W · 82 L-12.4wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-22.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb0d6…14d9backed Over51c41.18$21 inLost-$2113946.8%65 W · 74 L+11.6wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+20.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2a88…2bffbacked Over51c39$20 inLost-$19.8937949.3%187 W · 192 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaad7…5557backed Over48c29.16$14 inLost-$143452.9%18 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa46d…59c4backed Over51c25.88$13 inLost-$13.212149.6%60 W · 61 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d8e…7fe3backed Over55c20$11 inLost-$114580%36 W · 9 L+12.1wins+0.27per pick53cpaid+50.8%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.