NBA · resolved market
Mavericks vs. Kings: O/U 228.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a502ad241923a429c020a41c96a6394cc4aa87a0187fde2da75a5988c3f955a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,204
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,105
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,204 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 26c | 1,027$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.78 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd89e…35fabacked Over | 61c | 700.61$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.14 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 48c | 648.09$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.93 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Over | 16c | 411$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.76 | 1,096 | 40.9%448 W · 648 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb74d…9b2abacked Over | 9c | 400$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 56 | 8.9%5 W · 51 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed Over | 9c | 364$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.48 | 158 | 7%11 W · 147 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Over | 10c | 318.04$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 15c | 258.52$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 65c | 247.08$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.03 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 40c | 141.75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.63 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce0…e809backed Over | 19c | 125$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Over | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 628 | 48.7%306 W · 322 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Over | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,055 | 49.9%526 W · 529 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 43c | 93.72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.72 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48d7…1bd1backed Over | 25c | 92.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 23c | 80.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b17…e2c1backed Under | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.92 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 55c | 60.96$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.53 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 44c | 59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 620 | 47.3%293 W · 327 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Under | 38c | 53.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.46 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked Under | 39c | 36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 87 | 59.8%52 W · 35 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60a6…7ed2backed Over | 61c | 27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Over | 62c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 446 | 48%214 W · 232 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9b…ae51backed Over | 60c | 23.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…0f55backed Over | 60c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf69b…617fbacked Over | 62c | 21.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x254f…2fb8backed Over | 60c | 20.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 1,384 | 39.4%545 W · 839 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb825…a4a4backed Over | 62c | 19.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 55cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x65ff…14eebacked Over | 62c | 18.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -63%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mavericks vs. Kings: O/U 228.5this page
- 1H Spread: Mavericks (-1.5)Kings won
- Mavericks vs. KingsKings won
- Mavericks vs. Kings: 1H MoneylineKings won
- Mavericks vs. Kings: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Kings: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Kings: O/U 227.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Kings: O/U 229.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Kings: O/U 230.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Kings: O/U 231.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Kings: O/U 232.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Kings: O/U 233.5Under won
- Spread: Mavericks (-2.5)Kings won
- Spread: Mavericks (-3.5)Kings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.