TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Mavericks vs. Kings: O/U 232.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$131,273
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$136,408

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $131,273 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x16b2…a881backed Under47c43,417$20,234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,182.982,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over53c23,885$12,739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,739.192,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaba0…3153backed Over52c12,323$6,408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,408.22837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under49c11,610$5,679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,931.069,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0352…3292backed Over54c9,674$5,183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,182.7110158.4%59 W · 42 L+7.4wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+13.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Under49c9,000$4,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,59066250.8%336 W · 326 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x60d0…2e36backed Over54c8,311$4,488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,488.023342.4%14 W · 19 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+14.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Under48c6,897$3,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,586.2174748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x011c…31dfbacked Over51c6,186$3,177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,17733447.9%160 W · 174 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d43…bc5ebacked Under48c6,000$2,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,149.999451.1%48 W · 46 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd923…a13fbacked Over51c5,942$3,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,043742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85b8…85e7backed Over50c5,697$2,849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,848.511376.9%10 W · 3 L+3.6wins+0.28per pick49cpaid+55.1%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x98b5…e61fbacked Under52c4,621$2,419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,201.963743.2%16 W · 21 L-4.0wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-19.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Over54c4,381$2,347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,346.893,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e02…c0b3backed Over52c3,864$2,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,009.4440%0 W · 4 L-2.2wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf28e…cab2backed Over53c3,758$2,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,01056646.5%263 W · 303 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6ee…b3aabacked Over52c3,451$1,789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,789.0636248.9%177 W · 185 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Under48c3,103$1,489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,613.3447542.3%201 W · 274 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked Under46c3,000$1,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,62010057%57 W · 43 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x253d…aa62backed Over49c2,243$1,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,099.0758347%274 W · 309 L-12.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea22…747abacked Over2c1,999$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.9767921.4%145 W · 534 L+32.4wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+33.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Under51c1,700$871 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$828.961,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe550…2c8bbacked Over52c1,696$882 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88235749.6%177 W · 180 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8314…0f1ebacked Over50c1,386$693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69333150.8%168 W · 163 L+1.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafdc…c2a2backed Over52c1,287$669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6692161.9%13 W · 8 L+2.6wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+25.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x762e…cc8ebacked Under50c1,058$529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$529666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+32.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2c2…4de7backed Under48c1,000$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52049142.6%209 W · 282 L+12.1wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3de6…405cbacked Over53c905.66$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48043453.2%231 W · 203 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Over49c612$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.882,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1244…c851backed Under46c600$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32421858.7%128 W · 90 L+17.1wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+17.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc617…a854backed Over52c576.92$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30042648.1%205 W · 221 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c6a…9717backed Over54c555.56$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3003268.8%22 W · 10 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+14.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Over50c496.01$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.422,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Under47c463$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.391,66752.7%878 W · 789 L+45.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4cf…2d96backed Over54c370.37$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005446.3%25 W · 29 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c51…60bcbacked Under51c316$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.842254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0e9…5112backed Over52c300$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15621749.3%107 W · 110 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd947…9b61backed Under47c300$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15928751.9%149 W · 138 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf43…ae9abacked Over50c248.45$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.2329652.7%156 W · 140 L-8.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a59…eb2ebacked Under46c240$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.634451.5%177 W · 167 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd3f…44f1backed Over50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10025452.8%134 W · 120 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe666…14f5backed Over54c200$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1085754.4%31 W · 26 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4556…2b35backed Over51c200$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10212952.7%68 W · 61 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over52c198.4$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.658,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x78f7…2c5dbacked Under48c195.1$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.4538148.6%185 W · 196 L-15.6wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x41ce…6509backed Over53c188.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10028046.8%131 W · 149 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over48c180.04$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.424,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x102f…9b6ebacked Under48c143$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.366053.3%32 W · 28 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e46…0742backed Under50c140$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7023948.5%116 W · 123 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Under46c120$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.81,02848.5%499 W · 529 L+27.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe47b…1b4bbacked Over50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5035739.8%142 W · 215 L-25.0wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-18.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xdc1d…ff79backed Over51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515646.4%26 W · 30 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f6d…d25abacked Over50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8351…9bebbacked Over53c94.34$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5017758.2%103 W · 74 L+11.0wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+11.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Under46c90$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.662349.6%309 W · 314 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Under46c90$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.671747.6%341 W · 376 L+18.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under50c80$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402,60250.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L-20.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd079…8db3backed Under46c72$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.8831754.6%173 W · 144 L+16.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4d58…2073backed Under46c72$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.8834254.1%185 W · 157 L+16.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over49c64$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.44,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf39d…c817backed Under51c60$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.47065.7%46 W · 24 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa60b…c728backed Under46c54$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.1634053.8%183 W · 157 L+16.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x41ed…1da9backed Under46c54$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.1633147.4%157 W · 174 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Under46c54$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.1687647.5%416 W · 460 L+3.7wins0.00per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Under47c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.553951.6%278 W · 261 L+20.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa97e…7753backed Under46c45$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.320456.4%115 W · 89 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x02ec…5412backed Under49c40.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.8227359%161 W · 112 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over49c40.21$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.793849.7%466 W · 472 L+36.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa6d…d6bdbacked Over52c39$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.282161.9%13 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+18.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7398…f4b6backed Under46c36$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.4423753.6%127 W · 110 L+8.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f1f…f56bbacked Under46c36$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.4427350.9%139 W · 134 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf79e…9a84backed Under46c36$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.4422048.6%107 W · 113 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x864c…735fbacked Under46c36$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.4432649.7%162 W · 164 L-1.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Under46c36$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.4431250.3%157 W · 155 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fad…aa0fbacked Under46c36$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.4423850.8%121 W · 117 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa48d…b023backed Under46c36$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.4427251.1%139 W · 133 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa800…cc71backed Under46c36$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.4425250.8%128 W · 124 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2025…db59backed Under46c36$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.4436651.4%188 W · 178 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa620…ca56backed Under46c36$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.4431852.2%166 W · 152 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ee5…96c2backed Under46c36$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.4427353.8%147 W · 126 L+11.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc383…a540backed Under46c36$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.4431551.1%161 W · 154 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2692…2698backed Under46c36$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.4427150.2%136 W · 135 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77ed…53f7backed Over52c34$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.684057.5%23 W · 17 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+12.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xac98…7281backed Under49c30.61$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.6142143.7%184 W · 237 L-0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f3a…9bdbbacked Over52c29$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.083959%23 W · 16 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+12.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1015…c873backed Under50c28.45$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.2362744.5%279 W · 348 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa204…e66fbacked Under46c27$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.588755.2%48 W · 39 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0fb…ec4fbacked Over54c21.94$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.856860.3%41 W · 27 L+9.5wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+33.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.