NBA · resolved market
Mavericks vs. Kings: O/U 230.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d7c76cb30199f388fe0adee1eb50a28351e2f7d7b09e2fd879e4f360c7e3fe8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,178
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,269
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,178 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea22…747abacked Over | 4c | 1,750$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 45c | 1,478$672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$806.43 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 52c | 1,035$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.42 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 57c | 526.32$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 462 | 58.2%269 W · 193 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb871…9f15backed Over | 57c | 293$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.01 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 43c | 293$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.01 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Over | 58c | 258.62$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 625 | 46.9%293 W · 332 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…3600backed Under | 44c | 110$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.6 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…5526backed Under | 45c | 92$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.6 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f6d…4ad5backed Under | 57c | 88.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 46c | 86.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.96 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb3…0710backed Over | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 139 | 57.6%80 W · 59 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6c…ac71backed Over | 55c | 48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe56e…0bb4backed Over | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 242 | 48.3%117 W · 125 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5935…b8dabacked Over | 55c | 44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +4.2wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b73…a19dbacked Over | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +4.7wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaebc…bb17backed Over | 56c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…6563backed Under | 45c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1313…866abacked Over | 56c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22e5…81acbacked Over | 56c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -4.8wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -32%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mavericks vs. Kings: O/U 230.5this page
- 1H Spread: Mavericks (-1.5)Kings won
- Mavericks vs. KingsKings won
- Mavericks vs. Kings: 1H MoneylineKings won
- Mavericks vs. Kings: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Kings: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Kings: O/U 227.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Kings: O/U 228.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Kings: O/U 229.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Kings: O/U 231.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Kings: O/U 232.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Kings: O/U 233.5Under won
- Spread: Mavericks (-2.5)Kings won
- Spread: Mavericks (-3.5)Kings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.