NBA · resolved market
Mavericks vs. Kings: O/U 229.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x650698f24623de00a055d919b26741cb276ffd31353ac75d6c4cec5721af245f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,095
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,007
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,095 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6576…6cc5backed Over | 57c | 23,000$13,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,070 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc480…0caabacked Under | 43c | 23,000$9,930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,070 | 132 | 49.2%65 W · 67 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd89e…35fabacked Over | 58c | 20,696$12,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,087.72 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9201…e578backed Over | 10c | 14,406$1,441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,440.56 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 42c | 14,224$5,915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,308.76 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 13c | 4,712$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.03 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea27…19c6backed Over | 53c | 1,716$904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$903.62 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Over | 8c | 1,198$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.54 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…cbe7backed Under | 41c | 891.5$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.99 | 589 | 51.3%302 W · 287 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 42c | 800$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Under | 47c | 787.38$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.31 | 356 | 51.1%182 W · 174 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…0adbbacked Under | 42c | 738$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.04 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…078ebacked Under | 41c | 609.76$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.76 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 41c | 600$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Under | 41c | 600$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 47c | 493.68$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.65 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under | 42c | 476.19$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.19 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa485…92a5backed Under | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.37 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 46c | 370.37$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.37 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Under | 42c | 367$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.86 | 346 | 45.7%158 W · 188 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…f7b2backed Under | 42c | 319.38$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.03 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed Under | 43c | 229.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.99 | 126 | 50%63 W · 63 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…47efbacked Under | 41c | 128.25$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.67 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 57c | 109.74$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.55 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe05…b5a5backed Under | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 332 | 46.1%153 W · 179 L | -12.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d67…cf38backed Under | 43c | 97$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.29 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Under | 42c | 95.24$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.24 | 334 | 42.8%143 W · 191 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3366…87aebacked Under | 47c | 91$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.91 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Under | 42c | 81$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.98 | 92 | 58.7%54 W · 38 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed Over | 48c | 51.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 192 | 42.7%82 W · 110 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 41c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.75 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd0…4938backed Under | 42c | 44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd53…a861backed Under | 42c | 42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8e…7fe3backed Under | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 45 | 80%36 W · 9 L | +12.1wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x37f8…b5e5backed Under | 47c | 39.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.87 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96d2…dc9bbacked Over | 57c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7399…fe96backed Over | 57c | 34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6533…0f9cbacked Under | 43c | 32.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 493 | 58.6%289 W · 204 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78a4…05afbacked Over | 58c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e78…fcb4backed Over | 58c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…6fd5backed Over | 59c | 20.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mavericks vs. Kings: O/U 229.5this page
- 1H Spread: Mavericks (-1.5)Kings won
- Mavericks vs. KingsKings won
- Mavericks vs. Kings: 1H MoneylineKings won
- Mavericks vs. Kings: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Kings: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Kings: O/U 227.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Kings: O/U 228.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Kings: O/U 230.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Kings: O/U 231.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Kings: O/U 232.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Kings: O/U 233.5Under won
- Spread: Mavericks (-2.5)Kings won
- Spread: Mavericks (-3.5)Kings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.