TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Mavericks vs. Kings: O/U 227.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,678
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,909

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,678 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa6a8…5009backed Under56c1,918$1,072 inWon+$846.063,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea22…747abacked Over13c1,656$216 inLost-$215.8167921.4%145 W · 534 L+32.4wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+33.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over51c1,203$614 inLost-$613.538,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8398…fe44backed Over30c1,055$315 inLost-$315.28837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-17.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c35…5850backed Under37c760$281 inWon+$478.81735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-24%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xafd1…da41backed Over63c760$479 inLost-$478.82040%8 W · 12 L-2.4wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-23.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under49c707.43$347 inWon+$360.794,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Under34c492.41$167 inWon+$324.991,91145.4%868 W · 1,043 L+22.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7203…22d6backed Over66c418.17$275 inLost-$274.999843.9%43 W · 55 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd89e…35fabacked Over62c200$124 inLost-$1244544.4%20 W · 25 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb74d…9b2abacked Over17c199$34 inLost-$33.83568.9%5 W · 51 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-29.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x263f…c744backed Over66c159.09$105 inLost-$10510357.3%59 W · 44 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d8e…7fe3backed Under55c149.99$82 inWon+$67.54580%36 W · 9 L+12.1wins+0.27per pick53cpaid+50.8%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x9fbd…3d15backed Under36c129.04$46 inWon+$82.9176247.1%359 W · 403 L+2.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x447f…d110backed Under35c100$35 inWon+$6511834.7%41 W · 77 L+8.6wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+25%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Under60c100$60 inWon+$401,39026%361 W · 1,029 L-5.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee20…5b37backed Over40c100$40 inLost-$4050347.9%241 W · 262 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe47b…1b4bbacked Over58c97.62$57 inLost-$56.6235739.8%142 W · 215 L-25.0wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-18.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under42c95.24$40 inWon+$55.242,60250.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L-20.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20ec…fa43backed Over64c78.13$50 inLost-$5061056.1%342 W · 268 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f56…f93cbacked Over45c74.64$34 inLost-$33.594647.8%22 W · 24 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cf3…50d9backed Over47c64.33$30 inLost-$302437.5%9 W · 15 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+34.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b9a…5f69backed Over19c62.61$12 inLost-$12.025213.8%20 W · 501 L+0.6wins0.00per pick4cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e9b…829ebacked Over45c44.44$20 inLost-$2010345.6%47 W · 56 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Under35c40$14 inWon+$2662047.3%293 W · 327 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x245b…d6bebacked Under70c24.51$17 inWon+$7.422138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-29.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc259…100fbacked Over64c23.61$15 inLost-$15.11119.1%1 W · 10 L-4.5wins-0.41per pick50cpaid-81.8%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.