NBA · resolved market
Spread: Mavericks (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3534389df06fb08bcda1a9bc1c69571b83a453f5574f1ca73159049d8a103ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kingsof Mavericks, Kings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $217,838
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $220,008
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $217,838 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Kings | 48c | 103,963$49,903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54,060.14 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe73e…74febacked Mavericks | 52c | 103,904$54,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54,030 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4924…3782backed Kings | 50c | 70,276$34,981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,294.55 | 874 | 51.5%450 W · 424 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc675…2ff3backed Mavericks | 51c | 26,049$13,285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,284.94 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Kings | 49c | 19,617$9,608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,009.13 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Mavericks | 50c | 18,888$9,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,444 | 159 | 52.2%83 W · 76 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Mavericks | 50c | 18,240$9,176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,176.3 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Mavericks | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Mavericks | 50c | 6,400$3,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,200 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf09a…a371backed Mavericks | 51c | 4,078$2,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,080 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Mavericks | 51c | 3,992$2,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,035.74 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Kings | 49c | 3,712$1,819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,892.92 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…26bfbacked Kings | 49c | 2,500$1,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,275 | 173 | 48.6%84 W · 89 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Mavericks | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5f…d795backed Mavericks | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 270 | 51.5%139 W · 131 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Mavericks | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 446 | 54.3%242 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Kings | 50c | 1,740$871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$869 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Mavericks | 53c | 1,698$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.94 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Mavericks | 51c | 1,500$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765 | 179 | 31.8%57 W · 122 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Mavericks | 53c | 1,250$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.5 | 691 | 49.1%339 W · 352 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Kings | 49c | 1,250$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.5 | 446 | 48%214 W · 232 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Mavericks | 53c | 1,223$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.89 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…60e1backed Mavericks | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…2c8bbacked Mavericks | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 357 | 49.6%177 W · 180 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…e20fbacked Kings | 49c | 950$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.5 | 499 | 38.9%194 W · 305 L | -23.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kings | 50c | 920$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.56 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Mavericks | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Mavericks | 51c | 477$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.27 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Kings | 49c | 204.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.84 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed4…4547backed Kings | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 193 | 51.8%100 W · 93 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4b…a250backed Kings | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 344 | 47.4%163 W · 181 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d6…36cbbacked Mavericks | 52c | 191.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 245 | 33.9%83 W · 162 L | -19.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4da0…8bb8backed Kings | 50c | 137.52$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.4 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.35per pick | 51cpaid | +129.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…acb2backed Kings | 47c | 123$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.96 | 890 | 50.4%449 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Mavericks | 51c | 119.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 824 | 40.4%333 W · 491 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60aa…0df0backed Mavericks | 54c | 111.85$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f17…2332backed Mavericks | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 121 | 55.4%67 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e6…71e4backed Kings | 47c | 96$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.88 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -6.0wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x849d…29ecbacked Mavericks | 52c | 93.69$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.72 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Mavericks | 49c | 79.15$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.78 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Mavericks | 40c | 76.79$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 603 | 46.4%280 W · 323 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Mavericks | 52c | 76.75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Mavericks | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Kings | 71c | 75.44$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…243cbacked Kings | 47c | 67$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.51 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Kings | 52c | 59.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 620 | 47.3%293 W · 327 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3f…3badbacked Mavericks | 17c | 59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Kings | 75c | 56.81$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 311 | 44.4%138 W · 173 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Mavericks | 53c | 56.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3080…5f29backed Kings | 46c | 56.16$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.33 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +4.4wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Mavericks | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Mavericks | 51c | 47.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 506 | 48%243 W · 263 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9549…b936backed Mavericks | 54c | 45.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 244 | 52.5%128 W · 116 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d23…b5a2backed Mavericks | 54c | 44.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa49…949ebacked Kings | 47c | 41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +6.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5956…e127backed Mavericks | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…2f86backed Mavericks | 53c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07a4…be3abacked Mavericks | 53c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…0adbbacked Kings | 47c | 32.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Kings | 47c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd411…e342backed Mavericks | 53c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Mavericks | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Kings | 77c | 13.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.13 | 637 | 45.8%292 W · 345 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Mavericks (-2.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Mavericks (-1.5)Kings won
- Mavericks vs. KingsKings won
- Mavericks vs. Kings: 1H MoneylineKings won
- Mavericks vs. Kings: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Kings: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Kings: O/U 227.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Kings: O/U 228.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Kings: O/U 229.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Kings: O/U 230.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Kings: O/U 231.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Kings: O/U 232.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Kings: O/U 233.5Under won
- Spread: Mavericks (-3.5)Kings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.