NBA · resolved market
Spread: Mavericks (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaaccf5bea2c8728308b78730a2a0164311aa12ea76837b60f043bf36d128f046
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kingsof Mavericks, Kings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,627
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,908
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,627 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1ff2…dbbdbacked Mavericks | 48c | 21,244$10,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,197.12 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -6.0wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Kings | 52c | 15,000$7,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,200 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3080…5f29backed Kings | 51c | 10,000$5,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,899.99 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +4.4wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Kings | 53c | 10,000$5,279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,720.64 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Kings | 52c | 6,750$3,510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,240.32 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Mavericks | 49c | 6,000$2,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,940 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Mavericks | 47c | 4,160$1,956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,955.61 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Kings | 51c | 3,995$2,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,977.67 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Mavericks | 49c | 2,499$1,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,224.52 | 691 | 49.1%339 W · 352 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…aa62backed Mavericks | 49c | 1,759$862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$861.91 | 583 | 47%274 W · 309 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaba0…3153backed Kings | 51c | 1,249$637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.02 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21b4…e064backed Mavericks | 48c | 1,222$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.36 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc65…96c8backed Mavericks | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 337 | 35.3%119 W · 218 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Kings | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 409 | 47.7%195 W · 214 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…a65dbacked Mavericks | 49c | 755.1$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -5.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Kings | 51c | 656.58$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.16 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Kings | 52c | 600$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 672 | 52.7%354 W · 318 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcea6…67adbacked Mavericks | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 284 | 48.2%137 W · 147 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…dca3backed Kings | 52c | 288.46$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.46 | 150 | 52.7%79 W · 71 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Mavericks | 47c | 255.17$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.93 | 179 | 31.8%57 W · 122 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e57…21cbbacked Mavericks | 49c | 255.1$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a44…6db6backed Mavericks | 48c | 225$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b46…121dbacked Mavericks | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 315 | 51.7%163 W · 152 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Mavericks | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 235 | 53.6%126 W · 109 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Mavericks | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63f4…83a0backed Mavericks | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc41e…2dfcbacked Mavericks | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 208 | 47.6%99 W · 109 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf059…6dd9backed Mavericks | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 492 | 46.3%228 W · 264 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfda3…f186backed Mavericks | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffb…df76backed Mavericks | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 470 | 48.5%228 W · 242 L | -18.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…66abbacked Mavericks | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d82…ffb2backed Mavericks | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Kings | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 509 | 54.8%279 W · 230 L | +14.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Mavericks | 13c | 174$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Kings | 52c | 134.62$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.62 | 818 | 45.7%374 W · 444 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46d4…44b3backed Kings | 52c | 134.62$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.62 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e10…6a89backed Mavericks | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70df…bca8backed Mavericks | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 327 | 50.2%164 W · 163 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd420…df90backed Kings | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 514 | 51.9%267 W · 247 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ad…6a69backed Mavericks | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 201 | 49.8%100 W · 101 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Kings | 49c | 98.04$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…dce6backed Kings | 51c | 97$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.53 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc880…a622backed Kings | 51c | 94$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.06 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f21…d644backed Mavericks | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Mavericks | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Kings | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 218 | 38.1%83 W · 135 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7f…0a55backed Kings | 52c | 53.42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.64 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Mavericks | 48c | 50.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Mavericks | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,053 | 53.5%563 W · 490 L | -15.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…af09backed Mavericks | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00f6…c5d2backed Mavericks | 49c | 46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x977d…9a58backed Mavericks | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0f…09debacked Mavericks | 48c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 154 | 40.3%62 W · 92 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb4…8830backed Mavericks | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8a…4de3backed Mavericks | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9c…e966backed Kings | 53c | 39.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 145 | 47.6%69 W · 76 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x733e…c558backed Kings | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8e…7fe3backed Kings | 52c | 35.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 45 | 80%36 W · 9 L | +12.1wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed Kings | 51c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3155…268ebacked Mavericks | 45c | 33.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4da0…8bb8backed Kings | 53c | 29.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.35per pick | 51cpaid | +129.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1b51…7292backed Kings | 61c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Kings | 52c | 26.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 599 | 48.4%290 W · 309 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Mavericks | 48c | 25.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e71…8913backed Mavericks | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fb…ec4fbacked Kings | 53c | 24.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +9.5wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a3…d89bbacked Mavericks | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81ea…21e1backed Mavericks | 50c | 22.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 119 | 30.3%36 W · 83 L | -8.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0e…4049backed Mavericks | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 242 | 53.3%129 W · 113 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc57a…fe9fbacked Mavericks | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 132 | 50%66 W · 66 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a51…ef48backed Mavericks | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbd…6ffebacked Mavericks | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 90 | 42.2%38 W · 52 L | -6.2wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Mavericks (-3.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Mavericks (-1.5)Kings won
- Mavericks vs. KingsKings won
- Mavericks vs. Kings: 1H MoneylineKings won
- Mavericks vs. Kings: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Kings: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Kings: O/U 227.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Kings: O/U 228.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Kings: O/U 229.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Kings: O/U 230.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Kings: O/U 231.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Kings: O/U 232.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Kings: O/U 233.5Under won
- Spread: Mavericks (-2.5)Kings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.