TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

1H Spread: Mavericks (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Kingsof Mavericks, Kings
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,533
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,528

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,533 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Kings49c782.94$383 inWon+$399.991,45149.7%721 W · 730 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe550…2c8bbacked Mavericks51c686.27$350 inLost-$35035749.6%177 W · 180 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Mavericks51c294.12$150 inLost-$15030945.3%140 W · 169 L-0.7wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Kings49c266.12$130 inWon+$135.725,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1393…8392backed Kings50c119$60 inWon+$59.59048.9%44 W · 46 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7602…2775backed Kings51c118.8$61 inWon+$58.2150648%243 W · 263 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84b8…d83abacked Mavericks49c118.37$58 inLost-$581225%3 W · 9 L-3.2wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-50.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x01fa…c2edbacked Mavericks46c50$23 inLost-$2317447.7%83 W · 91 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6919…d27bbacked Kings48c50$24 inWon+$2618549.2%91 W · 94 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Kings54c50$27 inWon+$232,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1ab0…8383backed Mavericks50c35$18 inLost-$17.52142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x68cc…24adbacked Mavericks50c31$16 inLost-$15.53339.4%13 W · 20 L-3.8wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-23.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x90cb…ae5fbacked Mavericks52c28.85$15 inLost-$151233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-33.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Kings48c25$12 inWon+$132,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda6e…e417backed Mavericks50c23$12 inLost-$11.53548.6%17 W · 18 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.