NBA · resolved market

Lakers vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b39821ed6849b6aa2f2a1929c62bdab3291fb9b8c07d2063c451decb479af81

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Spursof Lakers, Spurs
Resolved: Jan 8, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $5,027
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $6,281

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,027 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xd6a3…9489backed Lakers	31c	869.75$267 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$266.87	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1377…56aebacked Lakers	34c	600$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204	74	47.3%35 W · 39 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf33…261fbacked Spurs	75c	577.63$433 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$144.41	174	20.1%35 W · 139 L	-4.7wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9f5…3e7abacked Spurs	66c	561$370 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$190.74	377	55.2%208 W · 169 L	+23.5wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	+60.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9aeb…5a2dbacked Lakers	33c	303.03$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	34	32.4%11 W · 23 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	+35.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6cb…7b9bbacked Spurs	69c	289.86$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$89.86	36	61.1%22 W · 14 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	60cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x558c…ca77backed Spurs	77c	268.59$206 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.57	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-2.4wins	-0.24per pick	64cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xeae7…6f6ebacked Lakers	30c	150$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	-1.0wins	-0.06per pick	53cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x26ae…ebbbbacked Spurs	70c	142.86$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.86	15	86.7%13 W · 2 L	+3.2wins	+0.21per pick	65cpaid	+34.6%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Lakers	30c	142.86$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.86	2,753	50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L	+47.0wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67c4…f0a4backed Spurs	54c	111.11$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.11	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-2.0wins	-0.22per pick	44cpaid	-51.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x755a…6da6backed Lakers	25c	80$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	455	42.4%193 W · 262 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8013…5b52backed Spurs	65c	70$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.5	175	54.9%96 W · 79 L	+15.0wins	+0.09per pick	46cpaid	+31.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd2d7…ba47backed Spurs	66c	42$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.4	203	53.7%109 W · 94 L	+6.3wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Spurs	65c	41.01$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.39	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Spurs	69c	15.71$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.87	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Lakers vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event