NBA · resolved market

Spread: Spurs (-8.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b11c664aefaa8cbce63a06949672d204f08579ef261a43699830bd48ae1b57b

Rebuilt 23 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Spursof Spurs, Lakers
Resolved: Jan 8, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $57,344
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $59,409

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,344 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xfb85…8464backed Lakers	51c	10,017$5,100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,100	400	41.5%166 W · 234 L	-5.9wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Spurs	49c	8,454$4,140 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,313.39	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Spurs	52c	5,010$2,628 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,381.61	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Lakers	49c	4,712$2,309 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,308.68	2,666	48%1,279 W · 1,387 L	-8.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Spurs	52c	4,031$2,096 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,935	257	53.7%138 W · 119 L	+4.4wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ac4…3081backed Lakers	48c	4,000$1,920 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,920	64	54.7%35 W · 29 L	+4.5wins	+0.07per pick	48cpaid	+11.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Lakers	48c	3,934$1,887 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,886.77	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Spurs	51c	3,923$2,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,922.55	259	45.6%118 W · 141 L	-11.5wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Spurs	47c	3,399$1,597 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,801.31	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbde3…4a49backed Lakers	53c	3,333$1,766 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,766.49	272	51.1%139 W · 133 L	+10.4wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Spurs	49c	3,322$1,623 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,698.98	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Lakers	49c	2,400$1,188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,188	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Spurs	49c	2,094$1,033 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,060.92	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Lakers	48c	2,025$972 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$972	1,820	52.1%948 W · 872 L	+48.5wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7634…1b96backed Lakers	54c	1,569$847 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$847	240	51.3%123 W · 117 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Spurs	46c	1,151$534 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$617	4,325	47%2,031 W · 2,294 L	-69.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Spurs	51c	1,004$512 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$492.35	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bd5…26ccbacked Lakers	52c	1,000$520 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$520	516	51%263 W · 253 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x25d5…531bbacked Lakers	51c	990.41$505 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$505.11	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-3.8wins	-0.29per pick	53cpaid	-54.7%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x62c6…55acbacked Spurs	52c	975$507 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$468	28	50%14 W · 14 L	+2.1wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbe5f…d795backed Spurs	50c	880.76$440 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$440.38	270	51.5%139 W · 131 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x78fa…d5c3backed Lakers	53c	840$445 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$445.2	15	40%6 W · 9 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x92d1…8a29backed Lakers	50c	800$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	63	44.4%28 W · 35 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76ed…fa48backed Spurs	49c	800$392 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$408	15	80%12 W · 3 L	+4.7wins	+0.31per pick	49cpaid	+73%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0x17e7…85a1backed Lakers	54c	700$378 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$378	195	56.9%111 W · 84 L	+20.0wins	+0.10per pick	47cpaid	+19.9%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Spurs	50c	695.6$348 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$347.8	2,736	46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L	-67.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe071…f836backed Lakers	49c	500$245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$245	25	60%15 W · 10 L	+2.2wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	+17.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x09ec…427dbacked Lakers	50c	400.04$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	164	39.6%65 W · 99 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Lakers	42c	400$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169	289	29.4%85 W · 204 L	-13.0wins	-0.05per pick	34cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xde18…83bcbacked Spurs	51c	394.5$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$194.5	92	50%46 W · 46 L	+2.3wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Spurs	50c	365.56$184 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$181.23	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked Spurs	51c	344.67$176 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$168.89	168	41.1%69 W · 99 L	-4.7wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9bc…45c3backed Spurs	49c	340$167 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$173.4	33	36.4%12 W · 21 L	-2.6wins	-0.08per pick	44cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xce26…8e06backed Lakers	54c	299.99$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163	910	50.9%463 W · 447 L	+11.5wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Spurs	51c	239.85$123 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$116.89	1,695	44.7%758 W · 937 L	-30.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e47…a7abbacked Lakers	53c	239.54$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.87	498	52.4%261 W · 237 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Spurs	49c	235.57$116 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$119.56	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0742…39a7backed Spurs	51c	217.02$111 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$106.34	41	48.8%20 W · 21 L	+2.0wins	+0.05per pick	44cpaid	+23.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x09e3…48acbacked Lakers	52c	200$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104	147	46.9%69 W · 78 L	+3.6wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b9b…bc4abacked Spurs	52c	200$104 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96	378	50.3%190 W · 188 L	+7.0wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa009…a6efbacked Spurs	48c	200$96 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104	147	42.2%62 W · 85 L	+5.4wins	+0.04per pick	39cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce09…6b0bbacked Lakers	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	55	41.8%23 W · 32 L	-5.4wins	-0.10per pick	52cpaid	-25%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xee20…5b37backed Spurs	47c	200$94 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$106	503	47.9%241 W · 262 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6236…6881backed Lakers	53c	190$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.7	237	48.1%114 W · 123 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Lakers	54c	185.19$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	235	53.6%126 W · 109 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Spurs	52c	183.96$95 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.47	888	45.7%406 W · 482 L	-12.2wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Lakers	54c	162.96$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88	1,444	58.1%839 W · 605 L	+13.5wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Lakers	48c	130.14$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.47	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4499…d102backed Lakers	54c	120.89$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.26	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.1wins	-0.54per pick	54cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3da4…28d7backed Lakers	48c	120.01$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.6	166	57.2%95 W · 71 L	+10.2wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+13%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd5ff…af12backed Spurs	51c	117.65$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.65	136	51.5%70 W · 66 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Spurs	48c	113.77$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.16	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe05…b5a5backed Spurs	49c	102.14$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.14	332	46.1%153 W · 179 L	-12.1wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ec5…9fe0backed Lakers	56c	99.44$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	168	53%89 W · 79 L	-6.0wins	-0.04per pick	57cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee82…1965backed Lakers	54c	92.59$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	66	65.2%43 W · 23 L	+10.1wins	+0.15per pick	50cpaid	+28.2%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x265b…74dfbacked Spurs	50c	89.22$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.22	53	45.3%24 W · 29 L	-2.2wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x06d5…0417backed Lakers	50c	80$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	340	50.3%171 W · 169 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa89e…4ab4backed Lakers	52c	78$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.56	157	59.9%94 W · 63 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc33…9636backed Spurs	50c	77.74$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.88	192	42.7%82 W · 110 L	-10.7wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Lakers	50c	75.02$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.59	591	41.8%247 W · 344 L	-26.2wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb390…642bbacked Spurs	50c	71.55$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.55	1,661	50.3%836 W · 825 L	-14.9wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Spurs	49c	68.16$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.81	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Lakers	48c	60$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.8	1,786	53.2%950 W · 836 L	+52.7wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Lakers	50c	60$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	1,109	41.8%464 W · 645 L	-20.3wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4010…77d4backed Lakers	48c	60$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.8	481	46.2%222 W · 259 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2d7…ba47backed Spurs	50c	60$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.3	203	53.7%109 W · 94 L	+6.3wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe97…89e1backed Spurs	51c	56.86$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.86	282	51.8%146 W · 136 L	+5.5wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Spurs	47c	50$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.53	397	36.3%144 W · 253 L	-27.0wins	-0.07per pick	43cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcb5f…91dfbacked Spurs	49c	48.82$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.9	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac8d…f98cbacked Spurs	52c	48.08$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.08	178	53.4%95 W · 83 L	+7.9wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x72e6…7bf4backed Lakers	54c	46.3$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	17	70.6%12 W · 5 L	+4.4wins	+0.26per pick	45cpaid	+63%equal weight	62+0.10 edge/pick
0x9501…a052backed Lakers	54c	46.3$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	61	44.3%27 W · 34 L	-5.4wins	-0.09per pick	53cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe5cb…c61ebacked Lakers	54c	46.29$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	10	70%7 W · 3 L	+2.4wins	+0.24per pick	46cpaid	+78.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe5c1…7487backed Spurs	49c	45.28$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.2	103	34%35 W · 68 L	-5.4wins	-0.05per pick	39cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x83d3…a973backed Lakers	53c	45.04$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	102	61.8%63 W · 39 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	62cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x117d…6542backed Lakers	53c	37.74$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	564	54.3%306 W · 258 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf443…1ea1backed Lakers	54c	37.04$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	24	50%12 W · 12 L	-3.1wins	-0.13per pick	63cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb870…5a8abacked Spurs	43c	31.44$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.92	918	46.2%424 W · 494 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd74d…55b8backed Lakers	53c	30$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.9	35	45.7%16 W · 19 L	-2.2wins	-0.06per pick	52cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xafbd…432dbacked Lakers	51c	30$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.3	192	58.3%112 W · 80 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	59cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x52b6…b02ebacked Lakers	54c	29.72$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	223	42.2%94 W · 129 L	-7.4wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f78…bfcabacked Lakers	46c	26.78$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.2	127	27.6%35 W · 92 L	-6.1wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	-33.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8855…ebd5backed Spurs	54c	25$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.4	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.8wins	+0.38per pick	62cpaid	+64.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Spurs	49c	23$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.67	1,294	48.1%623 W · 671 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…f0eebacked Lakers	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-1.1wins	-0.12per pick	57cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6bea…82fcbacked Lakers	52c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	22	45.5%10 W · 12 L	-1.8wins	-0.08per pick	54cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Spurs (-8.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event