NBA · resolved market

Spread: Spurs (-9.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31970ff7446d620292d6ea08f07fa10ccbb093ac0aee94cabf485cba2ef37780

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Spursof Spurs, Lakers
Resolved: Jan 8, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $67,850
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $67,814

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,850 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x84cb…28adbacked Lakers	51c	45,133$22,867 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22,866.95	168	46.4%78 W · 90 L	-13.2wins	-0.08per pick	54cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Spurs	49c	24,955$12,332 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12,622.45	1,045	49%512 W · 533 L	+21.8wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Spurs	49c	10,834$5,326 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,508.14	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Spurs	50c	9,999$5,002 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,997.22	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Spurs	48c	6,135$2,952 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,183.64	2,153	51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L	+76.7wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d9d…e6c3backed Lakers	48c	2,906$1,401 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,400.62	71	40.8%29 W · 42 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Spurs	45c	2,183$981 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,202.68	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f6a…04ebbacked Lakers	60c	2,000$1,200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,200	354	47.7%169 W · 185 L	-10.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe47c…3afabacked Lakers	58c	1,379$800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$800	233	42.9%100 W · 133 L	+10.6wins	+0.05per pick	38cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2bd5…26ccbacked Lakers	54c	1,000$540 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$540	516	51%263 W · 253 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc14d…cbdbbacked Lakers	54c	1,000$538 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$538.08	34	58.8%20 W · 14 L	+2.2wins	+0.07per pick	52cpaid	+26.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf3b7…dbdabacked Lakers	57c	968.32$550 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$550	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-3.3wins	-0.30per pick	57cpaid	-54.5%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x25d5…531bbacked Lakers	53c	915.66$485 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$485.3	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-3.8wins	-0.29per pick	53cpaid	-54.7%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3e47…a7abbacked Lakers	54c	840.32$450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$450	498	52.4%261 W · 237 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Spurs	49c	815.69$403 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$412.9	2,666	48%1,279 W · 1,387 L	-8.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Spurs	47c	638$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$338.14	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb870…5a8abacked Spurs	51c	520.05$265 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$255.47	918	46.2%424 W · 494 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe1c3…7d73backed Lakers	54c	466.97$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	80	41.3%33 W · 47 L	-7.0wins	-0.09per pick	50cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb2fe…11d4backed Spurs	48c	418.65$201 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$217.7	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.21per pick	54cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0729…0fa3backed Lakers	42c	400$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168	72	40.3%29 W · 43 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Lakers	53c	338$179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.14	297	48.1%143 W · 154 L	-7.4wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Spurs	46c	265.46$122 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$143.35	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Lakers	52c	233.87$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.61	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3c49…ca9dbacked Lakers	45c	222$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.9	182	40.7%74 W · 108 L	-8.7wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x13e9…7cd4backed Lakers	45c	219$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.55	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	-1.7wins	-0.09per pick	46cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x45d6…36cbbacked Lakers	53c	188.68$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	245	33.9%83 W · 162 L	-19.1wins	-0.08per pick	42cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1e51…9531backed Lakers	56c	178.57$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	367	51.5%189 W · 178 L	-1.1wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Lakers	55c	172.61$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.65	2,208	46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L	+42.7wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf37c…3c74backed Lakers	60c	166.67$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	61	26.2%16 W · 45 L	-6.4wins	-0.10per pick	37cpaid	-26.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x01c6…c164backed Lakers	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	25	32%8 W · 17 L	-3.3wins	-0.13per pick	45cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Lakers	35c	100$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	289	29.4%85 W · 204 L	-13.0wins	-0.05per pick	34cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc33…9636backed Spurs	49c	97.82$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.53	192	42.7%82 W · 110 L	-10.7wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9f7c…5a30backed Lakers	51c	97.77$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.86	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-2.3wins	-0.16per pick	52cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Spurs	53c	95$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.65	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2d4c…2e02backed Lakers	55c	90.91$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	96	60.4%58 W · 38 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	62cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc57a…fe9fbacked Lakers	48c	83.33$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	132	50%66 W · 66 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc29d…3352backed Lakers	62c	80.65$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	159	59.1%94 W · 65 L	+4.5wins	+0.03per pick	56cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x132d…9480backed Spurs	58c	78.5$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.97	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.16per pick	66cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cac…f75cbacked Spurs	48c	69.99$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.4	67	52.2%35 W · 32 L	+3.8wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Lakers	38c	66$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.26	1,109	41.8%464 W · 645 L	-20.3wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0c7…5861backed Lakers	54c	55.56$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	516	51.2%264 W · 252 L	-6.4wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cf9…ef29backed Lakers	48c	52.08$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a11…db4bbacked Lakers	50c	51.9$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.09	72	55.6%40 W · 32 L	-3.0wins	-0.04per pick	60cpaid	-10%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x94fe…eff9backed Lakers	47c	49$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.03	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7e8e…1ef0backed Lakers	55c	44.75$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.61	99	54.5%54 W · 45 L	-5.1wins	-0.05per pick	60cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xee20…5b37backed Spurs	61c	42$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.38	503	47.9%241 W · 262 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x62cc…f56fbacked Lakers	63c	41$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.83	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-3.4wins	-0.29per pick	45cpaid	-59%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x18ed…04cbbacked Lakers	47c	40$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.8	49	59.2%29 W · 20 L	+2.7wins	+0.05per pick	54cpaid	+19.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdfc0…3acebacked Lakers	52c	38.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	198	48.5%96 W · 102 L	-8.9wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9549…b936backed Lakers	57c	35.09$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	244	52.5%128 W · 116 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe00f…c254backed Spurs	54c	34.96$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.08	191	47.1%90 W · 101 L	-3.6wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf46…a799backed Spurs	50c	32.8$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.44	111	51.4%57 W · 54 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9d28…7a6dbacked Spurs	46c	32.79$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.71	938	49.7%466 W · 472 L	+36.0wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1937…d878backed Lakers	52c	30.77$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-1.5wins	-0.12per pick	54cpaid	-25%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xabf6…129dbacked Lakers	46c	26.96$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.4	199	51.8%103 W · 96 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc02…f89cbacked Lakers	40c	25$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	139	47.5%66 W · 73 L	-11.2wins	-0.08per pick	56cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6bea…82fcbacked Spurs	54c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.2	22	45.5%10 W · 12 L	-1.8wins	-0.08per pick	54cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xca6d…492bbacked Spurs	51c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.8	90	53.3%48 W · 42 L	+4.1wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0fe5…8449backed Lakers	63c	16$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.08	33	33.3%11 W · 22 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Spurs (-9.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event