NBA · resolved market

Lakers vs. Spurs: O/U 235.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11c7eca72ec263bc65ebd3f07858a99809bb9fbb4abdad3794158553a642f629

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Jan 8, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $53,873
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $51,990

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,873 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xcb43…3c74backed Under	52c	9,000$4,680 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,320	477	48.8%233 W · 244 L	+1.8wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca21…b07cbacked Over	43c	5,909$2,541 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,541.02	224	58.9%132 W · 92 L	+6.0wins	+0.03per pick	56cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc94a…9401backed Over	48c	5,852$2,809 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,808.97	403	50.1%202 W · 201 L	-3.6wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under	49c	5,842$2,869 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,973	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd529…f0d4backed Over	53c	4,610$2,425 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,424.53	1,085	63.6%690 W · 395 L	+86.7wins	+0.08per pick	56cpaid	+13%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under	53c	4,208$2,223 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,984.68	1,820	52.1%948 W · 872 L	+48.5wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7973…34d4backed Over	47c	4,085$1,920 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,920	54	37%20 W · 34 L	-6.4wins	-0.12per pick	49cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xba0d…9a6ebacked Over	45c	3,733$1,680 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,680	147	42.2%62 W · 85 L	-8.9wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Under	52c	3,652$1,891 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,761.57	877	50.2%440 W · 437 L	-19.7wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	58c	2,993$1,740 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,253.02	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x253d…aa62backed Over	51c	2,643$1,345 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,344.94	583	47%274 W · 309 L	-12.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2c2…4de7backed Under	51c	1,790$913 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$877.01	491	42.6%209 W · 282 L	+12.1wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	+9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Over	50c	1,500$750 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$750	1,157	47.9%554 W · 603 L	-19.9wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over	51c	1,483$750 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$750	653	39.5%258 W · 395 L	-24.6wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1052…53dabacked Over	45c	1,339$603 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$602.64	102	35.3%36 W · 66 L	-9.7wins	-0.10per pick	45cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x7ca5…73bcbacked Under	56c	1,027$575 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$451.71	404	51.5%208 W · 196 L	-7.4wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7234…1d85backed Under	57c	1,000$570 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$430	158	44.9%71 W · 87 L	-8.5wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x357b…0b65backed Under	52c	969.68$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$469.68	271	58.3%158 W · 113 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	59cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Over	47c	939.54$441 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$441.22	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Under	48c	598$287 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$310.96	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6e1e…bb68backed Under	51c	588.24$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$288.24	95	56.8%54 W · 41 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Over	45c	545.06$247 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$247.09	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c94…a43bbacked Over	52c	474.63$247 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$246.81	511	46.6%238 W · 273 L	-13.7wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over	48c	459.37$222 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$221.68	4,325	47%2,031 W · 2,294 L	-69.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28ad…0614backed Over	28c	439.31$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.25	160	36.3%58 W · 102 L	-6.0wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-10%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x67cc…942fbacked Over	45c	322.22$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145	48	45.8%22 W · 26 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fbc…9cf6backed Over	48c	208.33$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	366	49.5%181 W · 185 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x586d…c5dcbacked Under	48c	205.83$99 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$107.03	72	48.6%35 W · 37 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa408…d831backed Under	51c	196.08$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96.08	146	47.9%70 W · 76 L	+6.8wins	+0.05per pick	43cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x39c6…0ac1backed Over	45c	173.33$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78	542	46.7%253 W · 289 L	-7.2wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7669…f58cbacked Under	74c	144.3$107 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.52	520	52.3%272 W · 248 L	+31.4wins	+0.06per pick	46cpaid	+19%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1e46…0742backed Under	51c	137.25$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.25	239	48.5%116 W · 123 L	-4.2wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda21…8646backed Under	47c	113.38$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60.09	625	41.9%262 W · 363 L	-32.7wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-11%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under	50c	103.32$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.66	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e2c…6aaebacked Over	50c	100.77$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.39	102	34.3%35 W · 67 L	-12.7wins	-0.12per pick	47cpaid	-28.9%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb0cb…85babacked Under	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	522	42.7%223 W · 299 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xedc6…314abacked Under	51c	78.43$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.43	107	44.9%48 W · 59 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01fa…c2edbacked Under	51c	69.98$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.29	174	47.7%83 W · 91 L	-5.2wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f89…f3eabacked Over	48c	67.1$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.21	44	54.5%24 W · 20 L	+1.7wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Over	50c	50$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	2,657	49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L	+42.1wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Under	74c	49.07$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.72	2,208	46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L	+42.7wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb390…642bbacked Under	52c	48.08$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.08	1,661	50.3%836 W · 825 L	-14.9wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9331…0951backed Under	53c	37.74$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.74	42	52.4%22 W · 20 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x755a…6da6backed Under	57c	35.09$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.09	455	42.4%193 W · 262 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over	48c	33$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	2,736	46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L	-67.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Over	49c	25$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.25	1,695	44.7%758 W · 937 L	-30.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Over	49c	25$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.25	888	45.7%406 W · 482 L	-12.2wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac98…7281backed Under	54c	23$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.62	421	43.7%184 W · 237 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaad7…5557backed Over	53c	20.98$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.12	34	52.9%18 W · 16 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Lakers vs. Spurs: O/U 235.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event