NBA · resolved market

Lakers vs. Spurs: O/U 236.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x442cfe222ee103a1409e77852c63c50ea041b34e30410f48ff93ef6fe6a426de

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Jan 8, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $17,163
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $18,574

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,163 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xd9a5…c602backed Under	53c	2,010$1,057 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$952.34	236	30.1%71 W · 165 L	-12.3wins	-0.05per pick	35cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x28ad…0614backed Over	19c	1,511$287 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$287.41	160	36.3%58 W · 102 L	-6.0wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-10%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Over	49c	1,469$720 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$719.74	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Over	51c	1,170$597 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$596.7	1,157	47.9%554 W · 603 L	-19.9wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05e3…4b87backed Over	48c	1,110$539 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$538.51	478	56.7%271 W · 207 L	+11.6wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x357b…0b65backed Under	53c	1,047$555 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$492.17	271	58.3%158 W · 113 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	59cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Over	51c	530$270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$270.3	1,197	47.5%569 W · 628 L	-32.0wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over	49c	501.92$246 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$245.92	4,325	47%2,031 W · 2,294 L	-69.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under	52c	458.84$237 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$222.22	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe550…2c8bbacked Under	52c	412.5$215 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$198	357	49.6%177 W · 180 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1041…f452backed Over	48c	412.5$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198	269	49.1%132 W · 137 L	-5.8wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd947…9b61backed Under	51c	400$204 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$196	287	51.9%149 W · 138 L	+6.1wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7289…8d16backed Under	51c	392.16$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$192.16	133	54.1%72 W · 61 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78a2…d0a5backed Under	54c	361.7$195 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$166.23	183	43.7%80 W · 103 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Over	46c	353.95$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.21	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe071…f836backed Under	57c	210$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90.3	25	60%15 W · 10 L	+2.2wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	+17.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc091…3d42backed Over	42c	200$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84	543	51.6%280 W · 263 L	-3.8wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf66e…62d3backed Under	58c	200$116 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$84	17	58.8%10 W · 7 L	+1.5wins	+0.09per pick	50cpaid	+28.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf332…3c89backed Over	52c	192.31$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	656	49.2%323 W · 333 L	+9.5wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x78f7…2c5dbacked Under	51c	178$91 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$87.22	381	48.6%185 W · 196 L	-15.6wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Over	42c	135.89$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.2	888	45.7%406 W · 482 L	-12.2wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf36f…e5b8backed Under	53c	130.28$69 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.28	162	61.7%100 W · 62 L	+15.6wins	+0.10per pick	52cpaid	+19.3%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x69ed…2b21backed Over	47c	120.79$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.77	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Over	28c	113.56$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.8	1,695	44.7%758 W · 937 L	-30.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15e3…009fbacked Under	54c	100$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46	373	57.4%214 W · 159 L	+7.5wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under	53c	91.74$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.12	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under	51c	77$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.73	3,668	41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L	-70.7wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x330e…c22abacked Under	57c	61.56$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.69	25	48%12 W · 13 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x232c…12d7backed Over	48c	53.13$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.5	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over	40c	51.36$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.39	591	41.8%247 W · 344 L	-26.2wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Under	52c	43$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.64	877	50.2%440 W · 437 L	-19.7wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Under	55c	41.38$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.62	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7eb3…0710backed Under	50c	40$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	139	57.6%80 W · 59 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	59cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x117d…6542backed Under	51c	39.22$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.22	564	54.3%306 W · 258 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5ab…c3acbacked Over	53c	37.74$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	159	53.5%85 W · 74 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b54…ea13backed Under	55c	36.36$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.36	379	59.4%225 W · 154 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	58cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2d7…ba47backed Over	49c	30$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.7	203	53.7%109 W · 94 L	+6.3wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a59…e94cbacked Under	57c	28.03$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.03	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd44d…389dbacked Under	53c	20.38$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.58	413	54%223 W · 190 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0684…d593backed Under	53c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.4	879	50.6%445 W · 434 L	-16.0wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97b8…0f5dbacked Under	60c	20$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8	139	53.2%74 W · 65 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	57cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Under	77c	16.16$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.66	2,208	46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L	+42.7wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Lakers vs. Spurs: O/U 236.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event