NBA · resolved market

Lakers vs. Spurs: O/U 233.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ebf62223f00eccbdf0c44f5e8c599223eb8368ce3f858c8c6a7a8aa39b58a7c

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Jan 8, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $133,606
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $134,651

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $133,606 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x84cb…28adbacked Under	52c	67,816$34,955 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32,860.63	168	46.4%78 W · 90 L	-13.2wins	-0.08per pick	54cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over	50c	19,668$9,828 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,828.11	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over	48c	10,663$5,118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,118.13	2,153	51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L	+76.7wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over	48c	9,000$4,320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,320.12	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0352…3292backed Over	53c	8,917$4,724 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,724.34	101	58.4%59 W · 42 L	+7.4wins	+0.07per pick	51cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Over	50c	8,000$4,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,000	297	48.1%143 W · 154 L	-7.4wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Over	49c	6,836$3,322 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,321.81	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over	50c	4,340$2,174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,174.48	4,325	47%2,031 W · 2,294 L	-69.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Under	47c	4,236$2,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,236.03	767	46.4%356 W · 411 L	-16.7wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x25f4…20e0backed Over	50c	4,000$2,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,000	152	44.1%67 W · 85 L	-14.4wins	-0.09per pick	54cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x49d1…2a44backed Under	46c	4,000$1,840 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,160	24	50%12 W · 12 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1052…53dabacked Over	50c	3,798$1,899 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,899	102	35.3%36 W · 66 L	-9.7wins	-0.10per pick	45cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x75e1…3ff3backed Over	51c	3,261$1,663 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,663.12	88	53.4%47 W · 41 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	71c	2,788$1,990 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$797.58	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9249…4f16backed Under	49c	2,356$1,154 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,201.32	48	41.7%20 W · 28 L	-4.5wins	-0.09per pick	51cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc94a…9401backed Over	49c	1,956$958 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$958.46	403	50.1%202 W · 201 L	-3.6wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Under	50c	1,838$919 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$919	851	47.5%404 W · 447 L	-7.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Under	50c	1,650$825 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$825	2,045	48.4%990 W · 1,055 L	-30.3wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Under	51c	1,516$773 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$742.93	1,910	54.3%1,038 W · 872 L	+25.2wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe5f…d795backed Over	49c	1,500$735 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$735	270	51.5%139 W · 131 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28ad…0614backed Over	14c	1,497$213 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$212.69	160	36.3%58 W · 102 L	-6.0wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-10%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f56…7a4ebacked Over	51c	1,494$762 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$762	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Over	48c	1,400$676 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$676	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Over	52c	1,305$680 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$679.9	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Over	50c	1,200$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1b8…799cbacked Over	14c	1,194$172 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171.75	15	60%9 W · 6 L	+1.3wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	+15%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under	46c	1,141$525 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$616.14	2,736	46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L	-67.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0341…a679backed Under	44c	1,123$494 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$628.73	130	41.5%54 W · 76 L	-8.8wins	-0.07per pick	48cpaid	-18.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Over	49c	1,067$523 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$522.67	1,045	49%512 W · 533 L	+21.8wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x253d…aa62backed Over	54c	715$386 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$386.1	583	47%274 W · 309 L	-12.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Under	58c	622.18$362 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$259.95	1,096	40.9%448 W · 648 L	+34.3wins	+0.03per pick	38cpaid	-17%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Under	55c	594.03$329 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$264.56	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc091…3d42backed Over	44c	560$246 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$246.4	543	51.6%280 W · 263 L	-3.8wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x476b…51c9backed Over	55c	532.73$293 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$293	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-3.0wins	-0.33per pick	55cpaid	-62.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under	56c	530$297 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$233.2	1,226	37.4%458 W · 768 L	+7.6wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x78a2…d0a5backed Under	51c	380.39$194 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$186.39	183	43.7%80 W · 103 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x15f9…607ebacked Over	54c	351.15$189 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189.09	206	51%105 W · 101 L	+7.5wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Under	46c	346.24$159 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$187.33	2,902	38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L	-51.9wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce28…51bfbacked Under	50c	300$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$150	12	66.7%8 W · 4 L	+1.3wins	+0.11per pick	56cpaid	+16.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Over	48c	300$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae53…d80bbacked Over	45c	274.82$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125	409	52.1%213 W · 196 L	+16.3wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Under	78c	236.53$184 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.74	637	45.8%292 W · 345 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Under	50c	200$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	786	52.4%412 W · 374 L	+14.4wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15d5…ef7bbacked Under	42c	200$84 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$116	1,198	38.8%465 W · 733 L	+11.6wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Over	54c	197.47$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.63	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd207…c366backed Over	51c	196.08$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	191	50.3%96 W · 95 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e46…25c2backed Over	51c	196.08$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	110	47.3%52 W · 58 L	-7.1wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Under	46c	151$69 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81.54	1,715	44.5%764 W · 951 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xef2e…8d89backed Under	45c	133.33$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.33	334	42.8%143 W · 191 L	-17.9wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-13%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under	46c	133.3$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.4	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb78d…104cbacked Over	53c	123.33$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.88	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.15per pick	40cpaid	-52.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Over	15c	106.29$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.45	306	16.7%51 W · 255 L	-36.5wins	-0.12per pick	29cpaid	-37.6%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0xc29d…3352backed Under	48c	104.17$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.17	159	59.1%94 W · 65 L	+4.5wins	+0.03per pick	56cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x44f0…432cbacked Under	47c	103$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.59	401	46.9%188 W · 213 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Over	45c	102.06$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.93	2,666	48%1,279 W · 1,387 L	-8.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8985…2e25backed Under	44c	100$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56	76	43.4%33 W · 43 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd80f…92febacked Under	51c	100$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49	555	33.5%186 W · 369 L	-15.1wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d14…1eb4backed Over	55c	90.91$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	373	52%194 W · 179 L	-7.7wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1209…fa75backed Over	49c	85.71$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	69	43.5%30 W · 39 L	-5.1wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8031…67e0backed Under	51c	80$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.2	258	46.9%121 W · 137 L	-4.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over	51c	74.11$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.15	3,668	41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L	-70.7wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cac…f75cbacked Over	51c	70$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.7	67	52.2%35 W · 32 L	+3.8wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4977…8fd6backed Under	46c	70$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.6	35	51.4%18 W · 17 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc699…d378backed Over	55c	70$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.5	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over	21c	63.7$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.19	1,786	53.2%950 W · 836 L	+52.7wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under	47c	63.35$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.26	938	49.7%466 W · 472 L	+36.0wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb3b7…8b0cbacked Under	49c	59.53$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.57	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-2.9wins	-0.20per pick	35cpaid	-60.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x983a…ac6bbacked Under	45c	56$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.8	31	41.9%13 W · 18 L	-2.0wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x243c…9ae0backed Over	49c	55.94$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.17	383	47%180 W · 203 L	-8.6wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb53c…c76ebacked Under	62c	53.67$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.37	487	40.7%198 W · 289 L	-13.0wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-11%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84f0…327cbacked Under	50c	46$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23	39	61.5%24 W · 15 L	+4.6wins	+0.12per pick	50cpaid	+25.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3dcf…4eb4backed Under	47c	40.62$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.53	874	53.3%466 W · 408 L	+19.7wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd395…3731backed Over	50c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	91	35.2%32 W · 59 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	33cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf256…a93fbacked Over	50c	36$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	132	53%70 W · 62 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05e5…1dd0backed Under	51c	35.29$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.29	416	54.8%228 W · 188 L	+7.2wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd31a…e653backed Over	57c	35.09$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	63	47.6%30 W · 33 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8611…2ca8backed Over	51c	32.55$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.6	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.09per pick	59cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97b8…0f5dbacked Under	53c	30$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.1	139	53.2%74 W · 65 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	57cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x08b6…7db6backed Under	66c	30$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.2	120	62.5%75 W · 45 L	+8.4wins	+0.07per pick	56cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2a88…2bffbacked Under	51c	26$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.74	379	49.3%187 W · 192 L	+2.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Over	54c	25$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	1,695	44.7%758 W · 937 L	-30.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Over	54c	24.99$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	888	45.7%406 W · 482 L	-12.2wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf44e…eb5abacked Over	51c	23$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.73	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19a7…3ec1backed Over	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	93	48.4%45 W · 48 L	-5.5wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7c0b…ae91backed Over	53c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.6	28	46.4%13 W · 15 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd60e…a171backed Under	79c	18.58$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.9	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-2.0wins	-0.18per pick	63cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Lakers vs. Spurs: O/U 233.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event