Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b4548e1226aaf0037e07fa92dccf48fd306c3802a76a03294b97dedcd6077e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,288
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,283
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,288 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 7c | 1,821$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.26 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92e3…ab49backed Yes | 37c | 1,300$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$822.73 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 38c | 839.26$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.03 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 64c | 695.64$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.82 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 30c | 497$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.38 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 3c | 433.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 15c | 412.81$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.77 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 39c | 390.81$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 28c | 337.51$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.38 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 63c | 310.46$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.96 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ca…1ec7backed Yes | 38c | 300$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 64c | 300$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 64c | 289.97$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.73 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 29c | 288.27$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.18 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 24c | 266.51$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.98 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 63c | 262.1$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.36 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 37c | 220$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.96 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 44c | 219.86$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.27 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 50c | 210$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.15 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 52c | 206.99$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.26 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 24c | 182.24$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.87 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 27c | 171.76$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.47 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 57c | 170$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 18c | 165.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.57 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 61c | 161.9$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.52 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 21c | 159.97$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.38 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 34c | 156.55$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.91 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 65c | 151.96$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.24 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0335…6ecabacked Yes | 65c | 134.9$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.21 | 54 | 92.6%50 W · 4 L | +17.4wins | +0.32per pick | 60cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked Yes | 46c | 131.83$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.99 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 68c | 120.55$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 24c | 119.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 36c | 116.26$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.37 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 50c | 102.73$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.34 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d48…ba3cbacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 45c | 96.5$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.34 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 79c | 95.31$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.55 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 20c | 94.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.14 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 69c | 88.28$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.48 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 23c | 85.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.49 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 69c | 83.63$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.66 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes | 76c | 77.59$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xd115…4906backed Yes | 77c | 76.64$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 135 | 88.1%119 W · 16 L | +26.4wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2052…e9bbbacked Yes | 78c | 76.09$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 75c | 70.96$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 69c | 65.62$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.05 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 39c | 64.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.32 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed Yes | 77c | 63.9$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 63c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 59c | 59.7$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…b251backed No | 62c | 59.2$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 75c | 53.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 30c | 52.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc950…9420backed Yes | 28c | 51.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.08 | 130 | 35.4%46 W · 84 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d8…a8cebacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 67c | 45.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90f2…ef25backed No | 70c | 45.09$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.56 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 45c | 44.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf48c…8ec6backed Yes | 38c | 43.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.25 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 77c | 40.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.67 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 40c | 36.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 52c | 31.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 70c | 28.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b96…4268backed No | 63c | 27.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 61c | 25.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 25.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 65c | 24.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 73c | 23.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 66c | 22.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 69c | 22.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 60c | 22.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52f7…b1a8backed No | 63c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 65 | 66.2%43 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc5…33d3backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 98 | 57.1%56 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1b…1c78backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffe0…2133backed No | 65c | 17.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe34f…2cd0backed No | 70c | 16.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 78c | 13.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C or higher on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.