Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x732d56a83c59c4b413507dc1559c0c51a97e9bd082041e83bfa31bf73bde4a99
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,885
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,228
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,885 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 28c | 796.46$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.99 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 32c | 684.3$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.68 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 56c | 363.19$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.1 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30bd…3cf9backed No | 75c | 318.62$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.65 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 38c | 303.68$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.67 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 255$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.21 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 226$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.9 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 215.59$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.04 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 79c | 214$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.94 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 12c | 208$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ec…710abacked Yes | 32c | 200$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.9 | 135 | 45.9%62 W · 73 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 196.49$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.08 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x94bf…1d2fbacked Yes | 57c | 174.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 67c | 163.41$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.72 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 31c | 163.02$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.6 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 74c | 160$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 76c | 151.97$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.09 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 72c | 149.98$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.07 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 75c | 149$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.25 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 72c | 146.74$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.09 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 43c | 131.91$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.66 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 72c | 126$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.98 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 29c | 121.82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.04 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f70…891dbacked Yes | 10c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 73c | 117.81$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.81 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 27c | 117.81$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.81 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 13c | 113.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 70c | 113.63$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.25 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 67c | 111.2$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.89 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 26c | 110.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.93 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ca…1ec7backed Yes | 29c | 101.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 29c | 99.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 73c | 90$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 46c | 82.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.06 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 81.45$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f6…21d4backed Yes | 26c | 78.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 67c | 75.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.76 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e7…ed80backed No | 74c | 72.34$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee88…49a4backed No | 33c | 71.63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.68 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b98…8595backed Yes | 22c | 67.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 299 | 13%39 W · 260 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 73c | 65.62$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 79c | 63.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 33c | 57.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 30c | 52.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 25c | 51.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 25c | 51.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 71c | 50.32$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 72c | 41.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 52c | 41.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 71c | 37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 72c | 36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66f4…6ad5backed No | 74c | 32.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -6.6wins | -0.24per pick | 50cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 64c | 32.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 69c | 32.26$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 31.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 68c | 31.24$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 72c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 75c | 26.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 39c | 26.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 73c | 21.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 73c | 21.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 67c | 20.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffe0…2133backed No | 77c | 17.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 62c | 16.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f7…c14bbacked No | 78c | 16.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 109 | 73.4%80 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 69c | 15.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 74c | 13.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.63 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on July 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C or higher on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.