Dota2 · resolved market
Will Team Spirit win PGL Wallachia Season 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b9bc935bd764c2f2d8e8e2d122a8d4260d64cd96839aab64728405a015465e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,007
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,007 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc4c0…23d8backed Yes | 26c | 829.49$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.06 | 239 | 57.3%137 W · 102 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54b4…748abacked Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 130 | 26.2%34 W · 96 L | -15.9wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Yes | 13c | 372.02$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.56 | 170 | 23.5%40 W · 130 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2760…ef06backed Yes | 31c | 366.68$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.4 | 107 | 59.8%64 W · 43 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c590backed Yes | 15c | 322.84$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.44 | 82 | 23.2%19 W · 63 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…32b1backed No | 74c | 262.56$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.99 | 312 | 45.8%143 W · 169 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 6c | 233.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +267.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 74c | 218.81$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.8 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 72c | 204.13$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.71 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 69cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c62…32a3backed Yes | 21c | 198.48$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 23c | 166.61$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.42 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 30c | 163.14$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65b6…2108backed Yes | 34c | 147.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 77c | 115.01$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad69…7397backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 511 | 40.3%206 W · 305 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3798…c20ebacked Yes | 34c | 99.95$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x336f…c31ebacked No | 66c | 98.2$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 14c | 96.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +230.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 76c | 69.31$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a2…ff3bbacked Yes | 29c | 68.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 128 | 54.7%70 W · 58 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 29c | 62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Yes | 19c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 154 | 50%77 W · 77 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d8…00f3backed Yes | 20c | 55.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…70c0backed Yes | 23c | 52.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 630 | 32.5%205 W · 425 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 28c | 49.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…c72abacked Yes | 27c | 39.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 75c | 23.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 67cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e77…6762backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Team Spirit win PGL Wallachia Season 7? this page
- Will Aurora Gaming win PGL Wallachia Season 7? No won
- Will BetBoom Team win PGL Wallachia Season 7? No won
- Will HEROIC win PGL Wallachia Season 7? No won
- Will MOUZ win PGL Wallachia Season 7? No won
- Will PARIVISION win PGL Wallachia Season 7? No won
- Will Team Falcons win PGL Wallachia Season 7? No won
- Will Team Liquid win PGL Wallachia Season 7? No won
- Will Team Nemesis win PGL Wallachia Season 7? No won
- Will Team Yandex win PGL Wallachia Season 7? Yes won
- Will Tundra Esports win PGL Wallachia Season 7? No won
- Will Xtreme Gaming win PGL Wallachia Season 7? No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.