CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs SAW (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c71d8db3c0c68a56bc404889da702a90e38f1b77df1208508213cf091775966
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- SAWof Aurora Gaming, SAW
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,361
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,608
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,361 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed SAW | 12c | 7,154$876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,278.66 | 216 | 45.4%98 W · 118 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac75…1319backed SAW | 23c | 3,645$838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,806.36 | 164 | 49.4%81 W · 83 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9823…02dbbacked SAW | 40c | 3,442$1,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,054.23 | 470 | 55.7%262 W · 208 L | +27.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34a2…abd7backed Aurora Gaming | 74c | 3,244$2,392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,392.17 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed SAW | 30c | 1,806$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,269.86 | 754 | 50.5%381 W · 373 L | +17.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed SAW | 22c | 1,677$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,309.68 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Aurora Gaming | 32c | 1,493$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.38 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…fed6backed SAW | 26c | 1,404$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,042.72 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +4.2wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Aurora Gaming | 72c | 1,404$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,007.75 | 1,259 | 42.5%535 W · 724 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Aurora Gaming | 77c | 1,299$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 208 | 56.3%117 W · 91 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c9…2c23backed Aurora Gaming | 77c | 1,299$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.99 | 196 | 60.7%119 W · 77 L | -13.9wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Aurora Gaming | 47c | 1,252$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.12 | 1,611 | 45.4%731 W · 880 L | +30.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed SAW | 41c | 1,105$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.02 | 273 | 45.8%125 W · 148 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed Aurora Gaming | 16c | 1,047$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.71 | 324 | 25.3%82 W · 242 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Aurora Gaming | 73c | 1,038$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$762.28 | 1,969 | 46.7%919 W · 1,050 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x644b…2145backed SAW | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa97…494fbacked Aurora Gaming | 57c | 1,000$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked Aurora Gaming | 77c | 800$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616 | 220 | 56.4%124 W · 96 L | +19.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Aurora Gaming | 72c | 779.23$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.63 | 4,228 | 49.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L | +59.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x877e…b283backed Aurora Gaming | 80c | 739.43$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2418…66c8backed SAW | 23c | 650$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.5 | 608 | 53.3%324 W · 284 L | +20.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcac4…bf62backed Aurora Gaming | 77c | 628.26$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a3…b1dfbacked SAW | 31c | 515$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.05 | 130 | 50%65 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8465…6bbdbacked SAW | 23c | 500$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385 | 95 | 41.1%39 W · 56 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Aurora Gaming | 75c | 500$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 812 | 44.3%360 W · 452 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73f6…dc27backed Aurora Gaming | 66c | 454.55$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Aurora Gaming | 76c | 385.12$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.07 | 216 | 39.8%86 W · 130 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa05b…a94fbacked Aurora Gaming | 79c | 379.75$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -6.4wins | -0.22per pick | 60cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8541…a367backed SAW | 19c | 359.96$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.87 | 283 | 44.2%125 W · 158 L | +17.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b0…6960backed SAW | 34c | 314$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.68 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd92d…e560backed Aurora Gaming | 62c | 300$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 586 | 51%299 W · 287 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe53f…62d7backed Aurora Gaming | 52c | 297.83$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.54 | 426 | 38%162 W · 264 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Aurora Gaming | 72c | 277.78$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 265 | 63%167 W · 98 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Aurora Gaming | 77c | 269$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.13 | 589 | 61.3%361 W · 228 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7db…35bdbacked SAW | 12c | 263.35$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.56 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e98…3e80backed Aurora Gaming | 65c | 262.27$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.05 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2c…5e10backed Aurora Gaming | 79c | 253.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 334 | 56.6%189 W · 145 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfde8…c52fbacked Aurora Gaming | 34c | 222.81$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa925…e1c8backed Aurora Gaming | 66c | 215.15$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5a…7f2dbacked Aurora Gaming | 75c | 195.62$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.02 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9f…578abacked SAW | 25c | 190$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.5 | 130 | 44.6%58 W · 72 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c0…3cd3backed Aurora Gaming | 78c | 187.42$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 225 | 60.4%136 W · 89 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Aurora Gaming | 74c | 182.83$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.6 | 980 | 52.4%514 W · 466 L | +26.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee38…7920backed SAW | 21c | 167.44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 35cpaid | +139.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fd…5b3cbacked Aurora Gaming | 79c | 159.23$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.79 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Aurora Gaming | 75c | 147.94$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.95 | 1,144 | 49.4%565 W · 579 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d51…4946backed Aurora Gaming | 74c | 144.81$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.16 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked SAW | 17c | 140$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.2 | 1,181 | 22.5%266 W · 915 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed SAW | 23c | 132$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.64 | 259 | 41.3%107 W · 152 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Aurora Gaming | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 234 | 54.7%128 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Aurora Gaming | 54c | 115$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.1 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x215d…ba6dbacked SAW | 11c | 109.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.09 | 118 | 47.5%56 W · 62 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6777…2612backed SAW | 23c | 108.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.7 | 110 | 30.9%34 W · 76 L | -11.3wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -23%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x498b…ca86backed Aurora Gaming | 78c | 102.56$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 206 | 59.2%122 W · 84 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97c7…37adbacked Aurora Gaming | 61c | 73.62$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 667 | 53.1%354 W · 313 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Aurora Gaming | 62c | 73.52$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.85 | 854 | 46.4%396 W · 458 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa916…59a5backed Aurora Gaming | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…aaecbacked Aurora Gaming | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaca…49e6backed SAW | 41c | 68.29$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.29 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f4…e02fbacked SAW | 33c | 60.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.11 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x953e…79ffbacked Aurora Gaming | 41c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 303 | 48.5%147 W · 156 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Aurora Gaming | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 421 | 49.6%209 W · 212 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a78…496abacked SAW | 24c | 45.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +313.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…e0d7backed Aurora Gaming | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 211 | 41.7%88 W · 123 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f1…f301backed Aurora Gaming | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 201 | 57.7%116 W · 85 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…49e3backed Aurora Gaming | 79c | 41.43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64b3…5411backed Aurora Gaming | 73c | 39.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03f9…1f57backed Aurora Gaming | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce8b…3803backed Aurora Gaming | 78c | 33.12$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 62cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7e…da31backed Aurora Gaming | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf56b…49dbbacked Aurora Gaming | 73c | 30.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcda0…a51abacked Aurora Gaming | 78c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x746e…04dabacked Aurora Gaming | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 76 | 43.4%33 W · 43 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Aurora Gaming | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 354 | 54.2%192 W · 162 L | -20.1wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd612…0bc1backed Aurora Gaming | 77c | 22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 115 | 65.2%75 W · 40 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecba…5fb4backed Aurora Gaming | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 245 | 54.7%134 W · 111 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b8…9d1fbacked SAW | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 328 | 32.3%106 W · 222 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a7…8150backed Aurora Gaming | 71c | 16.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.