Ligue 1 · resolved market
AS Monaco FC vs. FC Lorient: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c911bcdd523667a6bc21e4ed78e3e4fbe3266887739e91dc6e14218e849f2df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,349
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,758
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,349 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8566…c626backed Under | 80c | 6,973$5,579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,394.66 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 13c | 3,587$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.94 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d36…68fdbacked Under | 77c | 2,581$1,991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.28 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 20c | 1,500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 173 | 29.5%51 W · 122 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 13c | 1,413$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.6 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee4…9f0cbacked Under | 80c | 1,250$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Over | 19c | 1,248$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.63 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Over | 20c | 908$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.6 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 20c | 860.04$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.35 | 231 | 51.5%119 W · 112 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2496…50a5backed Over | 27c | 747.89$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…6297backed Over | 2c | 743.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Over | 21c | 738$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.98 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 23c | 434$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.82 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 26c | 288.57$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Over | 6c | 266.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…f012backed Under | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x064a…245dbacked Under | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over | 21c | 142.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf724…0ba7backed Under | 80c | 124.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 79c | 110$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef8…d22cbacked Over | 30c | 108.81$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 310 | 49.4%153 W · 157 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 80c | 97.55$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf873…f644backed Over | 28c | 91.58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Over | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x832c…c46ebacked Over | 28c | 72.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 25c | 42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 356 | 50.6%180 W · 176 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…22c4backed Under | 75c | 39.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 42c | 35.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3513…c19dbacked Under | 64c | 25.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AS Monaco FC vs. FC Lorient: O/U 4.5this page
- AS Monaco FC vs. FC Lorient: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- AS Monaco FC vs. FC Lorient: O/U 1.5Over won
- AS Monaco FC vs. FC Lorient: O/U 2.5Over won
- AS Monaco FC vs. FC Lorient: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: AS Monaco FC (-1.5)FC Lorient won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.