MLB · resolved market
Los Angeles Angels vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7cbbf60fc9d7ec8ad0170878f04e85cfdd00c82713a869321056ae72c3e4ab29
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,635
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,776
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,635 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x49f2…d7b4backed Under | 45c | 11,793$5,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,325.33 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 67c | 7,389$4,922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,466.41 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 54c | 6,631$3,613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,017.83 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 33c | 6,204$2,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,047.39 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 51c | 4,760$2,427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,332.2 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 55c | 3,849$2,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,730.54 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Over | 53c | 3,466$1,843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,622.9 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 50c | 2,910$1,455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,455 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 6c | 2,784$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.32 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…f61ebacked Under | 47c | 2,510$1,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,179.53 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 47c | 2,400$1,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,131.99 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd080…5bc0backed Over | 73c | 2,089$1,517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1828…f0ddbacked Under | 49c | 2,082$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55d8…b384backed Under | 49c | 1,828$896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$895.53 | 577 | 44.7%258 W · 319 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Under | 23c | 1,600$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.98 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 54c | 1,425$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.97 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 50c | 1,152$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.2 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 57c | 1,046$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.13 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 34c | 1,019$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.92 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4a…eee7backed Under | 49c | 1,003$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.72 | 308 | 44.2%136 W · 172 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Under | 50c | 970$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 54c | 849.09$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.82 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76e4…febcbacked Over | 51c | 570.94$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.76 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 46c | 449.77$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.9 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Under | 32c | 398.25$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.86 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Over | 60c | 320.63$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.22 | 777 | 52.1%405 W · 372 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 18c | 300.96$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.64 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Over | 51c | 285.47$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.88 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c04…a593backed Under | 22c | 242.03$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.25 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 49c | 127.46$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.46 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 34c | 125$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf375…a60cbacked Under | 35c | 109.83$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.44 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…4dd5backed Under | 34c | 84.52$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | -13.7wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Over | 61c | 80$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79e0…b651backed Over | 55c | 75.26$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.87 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Over | 62c | 74.68$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.51 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 31c | 69.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 297 | 52.5%156 W · 141 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 54c | 66.75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.7 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed Over | 54c | 65.93$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.34 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Over | 53c | 63.02$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.62 | 238 | 54.2%129 W · 109 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d30…5f85backed Over | 53c | 63.02$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.62 | 111 | 49.5%55 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 49c | 62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40e1…65a4backed Over | 55c | 60.8$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…7c1dbacked Over | 65c | 58.74$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…b145backed Under | 23c | 54.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c2…5509backed Over | 63c | 54.18$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.85 | 221 | 54.3%120 W · 101 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Over | 64c | 53.66$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 51c | 48.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 67c | 45.95$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d08…9e8dbacked Over | 55c | 44.23$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…5658backed Under | 48c | 44.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 72c | 36.88$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Under | 46c | 35.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8821…32c6backed Over | 55c | 32.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 50c | 23.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 51c | 19.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1643…6ec8backed Over | 53c | 19.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5this page
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 18.5Over won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs. Kansas City RoyalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.