NHL · resolved market
Will Tampa Bay Lightning advance to Round 2 of the 2026 NHL Playoffs?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d2cd691d6c6e12acc7b7e94080f596f727b070d524794972d60f6164cc75155
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,285
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,958
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,285 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a32…0086backed No | 33c | 4,288$1,394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,894.2 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefc9…b337backed Yes | 67c | 2,949$1,975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,975.03 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 34c | 2,565$861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,704.03 | 892 | 49.9%445 W · 447 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 67c | 1,482$993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$992.74 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c7…5d22backed No | 39c | 1,209$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$738.7 | 84 | 45.2%38 W · 46 L | +14.8wins | +0.18per pick | 28cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc246…14c6backed Yes | 66c | 1,014$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a89…2f26backed Yes | 68c | 1,010$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.34 | 705 | 47.7%336 W · 369 L | -26.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf638…aa50backed Yes | 68c | 959.08$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.17 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa07…2125backed Yes | 68c | 908.68$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.9 | 1,070 | 49.9%534 W · 536 L | +22.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Yes | 54c | 745.98$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.39 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8f…8cc2backed Yes | 68c | 490.4$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.47 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed No | 32c | 467.77$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.08 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf10…d318backed No | 52c | 338.37$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.78 | 189 | 31.2%59 W · 130 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed No | 51c | 305.74$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.81 | 702 | 49%344 W · 358 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffaf…b675backed No | 32c | 195.96$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.29 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe091…163fbacked No | 40c | 173.27$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.05 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 15c | 169.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 37c | 143$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.67 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Yes | 51c | 127.91$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.63 | 295 | 53.6%158 W · 137 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b8…2f3dbacked Yes | 60c | 122.58$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.26 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Yes | 60c | 102.98$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.44 | 695 | 50.1%348 W · 347 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf1c…380bbacked Yes | 67c | 102.41$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.61 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56b2…2ce1backed No | 61c | 94.24$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e78…ddecbacked No | 34c | 82.65$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.9 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 31cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed No | 52c | 79.27$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.05 | 979 | 55.5%543 W · 436 L | +21.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…6bd3backed No | 38c | 76.86$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.98 | 540 | 49.4%267 W · 273 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 18c | 76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 37 | 2.7%1 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 8cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04a1…d6e6backed Yes | 61c | 57.69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.19 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27f4…58fdbacked Yes | 57c | 42.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.34per pick | 46cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed Yes | 51c | 36.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 111 | 41.4%46 W · 65 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e46…0715backed No | 52c | 30.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a8…00c7backed No | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099c…8959backed Yes | 71c | 21.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4415…5a2cbacked Yes | 68c | 14.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tampa Bay Lightning advance to Round 2 of the 2026 NHL Playoffs?this page
- Will Anaheim Ducks advance to Round 2 of the 2026 NHL Playoffs?Yes won
- Will Boston Bruins advance to Round 2 of the 2026 NHL Playoffs?No won
- Will Buffalo Sabres advance to Round 2 of the 2026 NHL Playoffs?Yes won
- Will Carolina Hurricanes advance to Round 2 of the 2026 NHL Playoffs?Yes won
- Will Colorado Avalanche advance to Round 2 of the 2026 NHL Playoffs?Yes won
- Will Dallas Stars advance to Round 2 of the 2026 NHL Playoffs?No won
- Will Edmonton Oilers advance to Round 2 of the 2026 NHL Playoffs?No won
- Will Los Angeles Kings advance to Round 2 of the 2026 NHL Playoffs?No won
- Will Minnesota Wild advance to Round 2 of the 2026 NHL Playoffs?Yes won
- Will Montreal Canadiens advance to Round 2 of the 2026 NHL Playoffs?Yes won
- Will Ottawa Senators advance to Round 2 of the 2026 NHL Playoffs?No won
- Will Philadelphia Flyers advance to Round 2 of the 2026 NHL Playoffs?Yes won
- Will Pittsburgh Penguins advance to Round 2 of the 2026 NHL Playoffs?No won
- Will Utah Mammoth advance to Round 2 of the 2026 NHL Playoffs?No won
- Will Vegas Golden Knights advance to Round 2 of the 2026 NHL Playoffs?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.