Middle East · resolved market
U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by January 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d6bc90bccff6d12a0a0772a9c7e2fd0754adbbbffdd9e6e8a81d2b166d9235f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $111,597
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $93,077
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $111,597 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3b5b…26fabacked Yes | 4c | 3,939$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +5.3wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x694d…1b27backed Yes | 5c | 3,681$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 3c | 2,527$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.64 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,372$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.83 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 4c | 2,219$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.79 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…07edbacked Yes | 3c | 2,126$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.67 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d0…f8e5backed Yes | 5c | 2,070$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 4c | 2,054$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.84 | 183 | 38.3%70 W · 113 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f74…558dbacked Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x300a…2c98backed Yes | 3c | 1,742$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,684$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.13 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75c0…dfd2backed Yes | 4c | 1,550$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 1,503$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.82 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 4c | 1,489$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.98 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6a…521cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,449$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf532…c50cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,439$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6db2…a781backed Yes | 5c | 1,437$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +13.0wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,418$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.16 | 143 | 0.7%1 W · 142 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -92.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94dd…7b9ebacked Yes | 10c | 1,216$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.66 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 1,139$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.96 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 3c | 1,110$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.13 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49bd…9864backed Yes | 5c | 1,042$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3473…8c3dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d3a…d8b8backed Yes | 10c | 949.31$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.93 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64e9…eb4cbacked Yes | 4c | 940$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 22cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef1…d333backed Yes | 4c | 927.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd95…8c17backed Yes | 1c | 896.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 5c | 889.44$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.65 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cef…759ebacked Yes | 3c | 862.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 3c | 860.94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 840.59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19dd…8f24backed Yes | 6c | 833.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 4c | 745.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 69 | 4.3%3 W · 66 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 5c | 690.71$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.22 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 3c | 673.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e01…ad8ebacked Yes | 3c | 639.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 3c | 630.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 83 | 6%5 W · 78 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 3c | 594.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef4…520dbacked Yes | 4c | 505.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 0%0 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46db…c48dbacked Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f17…6eadbacked Yes | 4c | 493.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…9a60backed Yes | 13c | 491$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.83 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x173e…2d86backed Yes | 5c | 478.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 48 | 8.3%4 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes | 5c | 476.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 219 | 26.5%58 W · 161 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc53b…7049backed Yes | 5c | 438.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 4c | 436.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd39…4252backed Yes | 6c | 431.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab7…20bebacked Yes | 5c | 424.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddf…e149backed Yes | 4c | 327.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa768…eb1bbacked Yes | 5c | 297.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 6c | 270.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x38fa…d9cabacked Yes | 4c | 261.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…509abacked Yes | 6c | 260.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b21…85fbbacked Yes | 8c | 257.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35cb…bd5fbacked Yes | 10c | 246.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3bf…99d3backed Yes | 8c | 243.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 118 | 16.1%19 W · 99 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 77c | 22.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 161 | 73.9%119 W · 42 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.