TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Team WE vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team WEof Team WE, Top Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$703,352
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$902,781

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $703,352 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 412 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc44f…d49fbacked Team WE34c47,667$16,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,476.5357246%263 W · 309 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24be…ad1abacked Top Esports64c31,968$20,371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,370.82837.5%3 W · 5 L-2.4wins-0.30per pick67cpaid-49.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x292f…7fc2backed Top Esports18c23,900$4,212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,2126259.7%37 W · 25 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf032…895dbacked Top Esports37c21,801$8,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,005.0321859.6%130 W · 88 L+14.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+14.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3ebd…b66abacked Team WE52c21,514$11,136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,378.084564.4%29 W · 16 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick59cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0224…292abacked Top Esports67c21,158$14,088 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,087.5125244.4%112 W · 140 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x695d…0d7cbacked Top Esports24c16,931$4,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,037.8867553.5%361 W · 314 L+25.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x258c…7c23backed Team WE32c16,000$5,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,879.959144%40 W · 51 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed Top Esports66c15,000$9,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,899.832150.2%161 W · 160 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc0c4…f745backed Team WE45c15,000$6,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,249.989955.6%55 W · 44 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe16e…bd58backed Top Esports44c13,146$5,748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,747.7216043.1%69 W · 91 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-21%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed Top Esports66c12,394$8,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,180.2291854%496 W · 422 L-1.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce7d…898ebacked Team WE75c11,817$8,915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,901.947054.3%38 W · 32 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcae6…4f85backed Team WE65c10,610$6,859 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,750.2267276.9%517 W · 155 L+87.3wins+0.13per pick64cpaid+30.2%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xa803…2949backed Team WE36c9,884$3,567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,317.6211140.5%45 W · 66 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-15.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x96f7…d6aebacked Top Esports14c8,888$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,199.888339.8%33 W · 50 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd99b…50bebacked Team WE38c7,477$2,804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,672.796848.5%33 W · 35 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe59f…0d08backed Top Esports34c7,342$2,512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,512.419941.4%41 W · 58 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Team WE34c6,666$2,266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,399.5459148.2%285 W · 306 L+15.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fd1…bfe8backed Team WE36c6,031$2,179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,852.4655639.6%220 W · 336 L+32.2wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+5.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3818…9797backed Top Esports68c5,888$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00057957.9%335 W · 244 L+25.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb10b…0b04backed Top Esports34c5,555$1,889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,888.6951044.1%225 W · 285 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99ef…ba25backed Top Esports37c5,210$1,939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,939.37843.6%34 W · 44 L+0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5286…0d47backed Team WE39c5,110$1,994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,115.927637.3%103 W · 173 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4421…80d2backed Top Esports1c5,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501242.4%3 W · 121 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-95.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x203b…46e1backed Top Esports63c4,959$3,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,118.946755.2%37 W · 30 L+6.2wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+24%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Top Esports67c4,600$3,094 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,094.382,00458.2%1,166 W · 838 L+86.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf030…12e2backed Team WE61c4,408$2,708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,699.2313371.4%95 W · 38 L+23.5wins+0.18per pick54cpaid+21.9%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xb589…91e3backed Team WE46c4,348$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,347.8251348%246 W · 267 L+25.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x14ca…8f43backed Team WE58c4,028$2,351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,677.4520544.4%91 W · 114 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Team WE36c3,911$1,408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,502.761,15649.1%568 W · 588 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2d0…1a68backed Top Esports5c3,800$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1857826.9%21 W · 57 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-52.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked Top Esports18c3,750$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$689.991,29545.1%584 W · 711 L+49.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Team WE41c3,692$1,532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,160.391,00747.9%482 W · 525 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb635…bef0backed Team WE38c3,666$1,393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,272.8885836.2%311 W · 547 L-14.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeee5…3d51backed Top Esports55c3,636$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0002867.9%19 W · 9 L+5.0wins+0.18per pick50cpaid+49.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5d34…7c8cbacked Top Esports26c3,500$915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91530321.8%66 W · 237 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5809…9868backed Team WE37c3,271$1,212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,058.7597427.8%271 W · 703 L-23.1wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-28.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x81f4…8300backed Top Esports61c3,233$1,987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,986.96848.5%33 W · 35 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x04cf…9f77backed Top Esports62c3,211$1,991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,990.823545.7%16 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-6.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xae2b…9cc3backed Top Esports63c3,171$1,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,997.7219041.6%79 W · 111 L-9.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-14.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x66e5…d3c7backed Top Esports62c3,100$1,909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,908.9946257.8%267 W · 195 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8d9…753abacked Top Esports61c3,000$1,830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8304337.2%16 W · 27 L-0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-26.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Top Esports31c2,989$928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$928.261,09638.9%426 W · 670 L-47.4wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-23.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe480…ee6cbacked Top Esports63c2,877$1,813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,812.515850%29 W · 29 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01e6…e7e0backed Team WE71c2,860$2,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$837.0248149.7%239 W · 242 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf09b…584ebacked Top Esports62c2,854$1,769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,769.484856.3%27 W · 21 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf64e…a1ddbacked Team WE56c2,815$1,584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,231.158453.6%45 W · 39 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x65fe…c200backed Team WE58c2,739$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,139.2121861%133 W · 85 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b3…70adbacked Top Esports7c2,574$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.3180%0 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Top Esports61c2,570$1,568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,567.6125546.3%118 W · 137 L+0.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Team WE36c2,525$919 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,605.713,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed Team WE39c2,500$975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,52526729.2%78 W · 189 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-0.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32eb…ded0backed Top Esports49c2,142$1,059 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,059.3331644.3%140 W · 176 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc69b…2076backed Team WE40c2,072$832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,239.3769741.5%289 W · 408 L-17.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe45d…230dbacked Top Esports46c2,036$936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$936.361656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68a6…e96bbacked Top Esports34c2,000$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6801,21848.7%593 W · 625 L+0.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x000e…f7e9backed Team WE42c2,000$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,159.9989943.4%390 W · 509 L+22.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Top Esports65c1,998$1,298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,298.451,43557.4%824 W · 611 L+36.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x39da…f67fbacked Top Esports3c1,994$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.85666.1%4 W · 62 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+18.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Team WE69c1,900$1,313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$586.912,49739.9%996 W · 1,501 L-75.6wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-19.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa08f…745bbacked Top Esports55c1,818$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0005255.8%29 W · 23 L+0.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b9c…704ebacked Team WE75c1,813$1,363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.625865.5%38 W · 20 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick63cpaid-6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed Top Esports45c1,777$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.658063.8%51 W · 29 L+12.3wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+41.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x3df1…03e1backed Team WE65c1,677$1,092 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$584.9811276.8%86 W · 26 L+16.7wins+0.15per pick62cpaid+15.7%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x24d3…30abbacked Team WE64c1,660$1,062 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$597.5613545.9%62 W · 73 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Team WE55c1,653$910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$743.041,04450.4%526 W · 518 L+37.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid0%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1680…490dbacked Top Esports69c1,632$1,123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1234660.9%28 W · 18 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+37.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf163…ca34backed Top Esports65c1,630$1,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,055.441,47648.3%713 W · 763 L+45.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe562…cd68backed Top Esports62c1,518$941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$941.16933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-51.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed Top Esports39c1,513$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59026635%93 W · 173 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x377b…0446backed Top Esports61c1,500$915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9152040%8 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-26.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e51…42cebacked Top Esports60c1,500$894 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$894.4636155.4%200 W · 161 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84fb…675ebacked Team WE43c1,499$638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$861.332356.5%13 W · 10 L+4.3wins+0.19per pick38cpaid+45%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Top Esports56c1,482$836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$836.121,14945.2%519 W · 630 L+12.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83af…4084backed Team WE35c1,474$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$955.7828350.5%143 W · 140 L+16.0wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xce20…0b7bbacked Team WE41c1,473$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$873.3530554.8%167 W · 138 L+8.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f88…c6e8backed Top Esports26c1,422$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.8312128.9%35 W · 86 L-8.6wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-36.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfc92…5667backed Team WE34c1,397$473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$923.698334.9%29 W · 54 L+0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Team WE42c1,384$588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$796.021,93048.2%930 W · 1,000 L+24.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x160d…6f25backed Top Esports14c1,303$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.4212326%32 W · 91 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Top Esports2c1,300$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.51,5173.3%50 W · 1,467 L-53.9wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-74.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5997…0beebacked Team WE38c1,257$478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$779.343745.9%17 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e54…511ebacked Team WE39c1,250$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76040441.8%169 W · 235 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x58ce…e206backed Team WE55c1,232$678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$554.4122452.2%117 W · 107 L+14.6wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+10.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5e69…7f76backed Top Esports67c1,228$822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$821.8628448.6%138 W · 146 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf3a…fbfdbacked Top Esports68c1,176$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-20.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dd9…bfe8backed Team WE35c1,143$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$742.8664453.9%347 W · 297 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed Top Esports68c1,143$777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7771,46361.4%899 W · 564 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd5f…85d5backed Team WE37c1,135$418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$716.224654.3%25 W · 21 L+5.1wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked Top Esports68c1,117$759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$759.4298956.8%562 W · 427 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed Team WE55c1,112$608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504.1389347%420 W · 473 L+44.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-7.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7d9d…3c52backed Top Esports60c1,041$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$624.581040%4 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7355…824cbacked Team WE40c1,027$411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$616.216061.7%37 W · 23 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+15%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf56c…fcbdbacked Team WE67c1,011$682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.7351348.3%248 W · 265 L+9.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed Top Esports67c1,010$677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$676.691,52150.6%769 W · 752 L+3.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91a2…e415backed Team WE38c1,002$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$620.9913542.2%57 W · 78 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f93…a687backed Team WE46c1,000$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5407753.2%41 W · 36 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd676…104cbacked Team WE37c999.99$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63020147.3%95 W · 106 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50fa…907fbacked Team WE51c999.98$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.6310023%23 W · 77 L+9.0wins+0.09per pick14cpaid+68.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.