TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Campinas: Guido Justo vs Gustavo Heide

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Gustavo Heideof Guido Justo, Gustavo Heide
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$79,341
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$77,790

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,341 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9412…b9ebbacked Guido Justo21c13,673$2,838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,838.322917.2%5 W · 24 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-18.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Gustavo Heide79c7,392$5,813 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,579.5111,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Guido Justo7c6,046$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.638,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a12…d3febacked Gustavo Heide65c4,385$2,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,534.859247.8%44 W · 48 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xca54…57bdbacked Guido Justo7c4,040$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa285…9394backed Guido Justo35c2,300$805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80540%0 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc0cf…8bcbbacked Guido Justo34c1,587$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.650%0 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x68af…ca81backed Guido Justo12c1,062$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.1521720.3%44 W · 173 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0c6…b50bbacked Guido Justo31c1,001$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.318946.1%41 W · 48 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe458…7abebacked Guido Justo35c1,000$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-42.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x629c…6c01backed Guido Justo30c999.98$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.994436.4%16 W · 28 L-4.4wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-20.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfd2b…9ff9backed Guido Justo35c999.97$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.9913050.8%66 W · 64 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51ad…5e56backed Guido Justo25c967.24$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.791,67153%885 W · 786 L+44.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Guido Justo31c904.1$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.443,87135%1,353 W · 2,518 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Gustavo Heide79c891.67$704 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.252,41750.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L+78.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Gustavo Heide75c889.86$664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.483,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Guido Justo19c824.44$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.954,70349.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L+166.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xad88…3c1ebacked Guido Justo24c795.33$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.8824747.4%117 W · 130 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xec3c…d475backed Guido Justo28c787.13$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.52268.2%15 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Gustavo Heide76c717.68$545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.2497745.2%442 W · 535 L-0.9wins0.00per pick45cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1a9…e22ebacked Guido Justo22c631.29$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.881,28439.2%503 W · 781 L-12.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Guido Justo23c571.47$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.856,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Guido Justo27c565.97$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.3229230.5%89 W · 203 L-11.9wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x874f…a13dbacked Guido Justo23c531.19$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.194520%9 W · 36 L-7.4wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-47.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x2f57…3e7abacked Guido Justo19c526.21$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.9384857.4%487 W · 361 L+0.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x803f…b6b3backed Guido Justo29c495.21$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.614119.5%8 W · 33 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b45…ac9fbacked Guido Justo22c457.16$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.3550644.9%227 W · 279 L-12.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…5e2abacked Guido Justo13c416.95$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.697635.5%27 W · 49 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-16.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbd3a…91fdbacked Guido Justo17c399.94$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.921,01846.8%476 W · 542 L+1.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Gustavo Heide79c356.78$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.8180153.1%425 W · 376 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-7.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Gustavo Heide79c349.2$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.559,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fa7…d4febacked Guido Justo17c336.32$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.963935.9%14 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc470…c792backed Guido Justo30c321.24$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.791,50435.1%528 W · 976 L+12.5wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e38…1b52backed Guido Justo13c299.06$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.8861924.4%151 W · 468 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4248…50febacked Guido Justo21c281.24$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.0635436.4%129 W · 225 L-16.8wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d01…2462backed Guido Justo7c280.7$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.651442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-17.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf84b…6455backed Guido Justo12c252$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.221217.4%9 W · 112 L-7.9wins-0.07per pick14cpaid-48.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Guido Justo23c243.95$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.3330530.8%94 W · 211 L-9.5wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d87…8dbbbacked Guido Justo17c230.28$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9736944.4%164 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Gustavo Heide78c228$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.641,41038.4%542 W · 868 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-25%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe031…5c08backed Guido Justo17c201.9$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5973549.8%366 W · 369 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe324…9189backed Gustavo Heide65c194.29$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6820664.1%132 W · 74 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9079…b19bbacked Gustavo Heide70c188.88$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.6652854.9%290 W · 238 L+20.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x962e…1d75backed Gustavo Heide65c183.75$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.3140161.1%245 W · 156 L+0.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe05f…1fe3backed Gustavo Heide73c182.99$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.4117958.1%104 W · 75 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8d3…acf8backed Guido Justo18c174.31$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3812030%36 W · 84 L-8.8wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-19.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5471…a236backed Guido Justo19c168$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1140548.1%195 W · 210 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53ae…f71ebacked Guido Justo29c164.95$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.239039.5%154 W · 236 L-46.8wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-30.8%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x1572…7991backed Guido Justo22c153.72$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.822528%7 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b49…0397backed Guido Justo22c133.37$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3458734.6%203 W · 384 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5b5…1414backed Guido Justo20c132.15$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.269645.8%44 W · 52 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xddf5…aaa3backed Gustavo Heide65c129.53$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.3469253.3%369 W · 323 L-10.4wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x96bc…d2b5backed Gustavo Heide78c126.51$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.8341668%283 W · 133 L+23.6wins+0.06per pick62cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x691a…d113backed Gustavo Heide70c124.04$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.2138955.3%215 W · 174 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9694…b7adbacked Guido Justo24c123.2$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.572,05859.5%1,225 W · 833 L-1.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Gustavo Heide72c104.99$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.41,95548%939 W · 1,016 L+16.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Gustavo Heide78c103.48$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.056,78648.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L+56.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43d7…1c75backed Guido Justo23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231,24041.2%511 W · 729 L-2.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb69…c3e5backed Gustavo Heide76c100$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241,07655.5%597 W · 479 L+8.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x874d…f711backed Guido Justo22c99.96$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.99825%2 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-37.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2e3…4874backed Gustavo Heide79c99.78$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.9991880.5%739 W · 179 L+39.3wins+0.04per pick76cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x54a6…7401backed Guido Justo22c98.49$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.969843.9%43 W · 55 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3f0…c8a6backed Gustavo Heide71c98.26$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.511959.7%71 W · 48 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x877c…e669backed Gustavo Heide65c95.94$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.5822963.3%145 W · 84 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36b3…e421backed Guido Justo23c95.54$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.285250%426 W · 426 L+22.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc9c3…079fbacked Gustavo Heide77c93.69$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.5589364.4%575 W · 318 L+12.5wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b56…9100backed Guido Justo26c92.32$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.897243.1%31 W · 41 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Gustavo Heide79c90.65$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.644,76547%2,238 W · 2,527 L-82.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Guido Justo31c85.04$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.362,41851.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L+10.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Guido Justo13c85$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.171,53240.7%624 W · 908 L-48.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8027…cf81backed Gustavo Heide70c84.17$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.2530853.6%165 W · 143 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked Guido Justo31c78.28$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.271,24551.9%646 W · 599 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49ec…ac1cbacked Gustavo Heide79c75.42$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.1911331%35 W · 78 L-11.2wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-38%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5572…f01ebacked Guido Justo18c73.82$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9357953.7%311 W · 268 L+19.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-11%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x31d4…5c13backed Guido Justo26c73.51$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1132937.1%122 W · 207 L+0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed Gustavo Heide75c70.87$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.471,27661%778 W · 498 L+27.7wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c5…b613backed Gustavo Heide71c66.82$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.3850259%296 W · 206 L+14.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Guido Justo30c66.68$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203,27013.8%450 W · 2,820 L-549.1wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-57.4%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x8c00…9901backed Guido Justo29c66.03$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.152653.8%14 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x012d…9db6backed Gustavo Heide77c64.04$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.7384968.4%581 W · 268 L+25.9wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8c8…7c4cbacked Gustavo Heide75c53.59$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.447447.9%227 W · 247 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa415…6fb9backed Gustavo Heide72c52.11$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.5958453.1%310 W · 274 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2280…3780backed Gustavo Heide70c51.7$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.5115163.6%96 W · 55 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xceb6…c637backed Gustavo Heide80c51.48$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.384772.3%34 W · 13 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick65cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1a47…235bbacked Gustavo Heide80c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1020412.7%26 W · 178 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-27.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5ea…42e8backed Gustavo Heide65c45.03$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.7689859.7%536 W · 362 L+2.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f0c…a98fbacked Gustavo Heide73c44.99$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.153762.2%23 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0642…8c68backed Gustavo Heide71c42.99$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.4764358.8%378 W · 265 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56c4…fce5backed Gustavo Heide72c42.28$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.8481457%464 W · 350 L+19.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e9f…5403backed Gustavo Heide77c41.26$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.327350.7%37 W · 36 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb868…5e23backed Gustavo Heide66c39.02$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.25651.8%29 W · 27 L-5.2wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-16.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6c23…261ebacked Gustavo Heide76c31.38$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.381090%9 W · 1 L+2.7wins+0.27per pick63cpaid+46.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x9d94…3f92backed Gustavo Heide80c31.25$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.2522482.6%185 W · 39 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick80cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x46ea…d849backed Gustavo Heide72c27.31$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.6516370.6%115 W · 48 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa21e…2a11backed Gustavo Heide65c24.67$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.631361.5%8 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick66cpaid+0.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e73…3f4ebacked Gustavo Heide79c22.81$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.7733065.8%217 W · 113 L+25.1wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+5.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa8bb…e40fbacked Gustavo Heide76c20.83$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53666.7%24 W · 12 L+5.5wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+27.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4bd5…6522backed Gustavo Heide70c19.92$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.983100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+49.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ffe…9150backed Gustavo Heide78c14.56$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.220043.5%87 W · 113 L-9.6wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6031…de1ebacked Gustavo Heide72c14.53$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.0711258.9%66 W · 46 L+7.6wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.