Fifa International · resolved market
Will Wales win on 2025-09-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f48d9194a4f94d299e850a07e59f4a6436b828446e2c92f58ea6a01264c460e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,141
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $89,422
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,141 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xad94…85b1backed No | 37c | 10,189$3,770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,769.83 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…59d0backed Yes | 63c | 9,543$6,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,530.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked Yes | 66c | 7,000$4,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,380 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 33c | 3,814$1,277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,276.54 | 246 | 47.6%117 W · 129 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 33c | 3,209$1,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,056.17 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a1…7cb1backed Yes | 65c | 3,033$1,968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,065.11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed No | 37c | 2,500$925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$924.99 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Yes | 68c | 2,227$1,509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$718 | 103 | 66%68 W · 35 L | +12.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed No | 39c | 2,000$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 605 | 11.4%69 W · 536 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 17c | 1,784$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.15 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +6.4wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed No | 39c | 1,706$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.64 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc67b…c149backed Yes | 63c | 1,326$836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.73 | 140 | 52.1%73 W · 67 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4a…048ebacked No | 40c | 1,161$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.07 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Yes | 61c | 1,092$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.8 | 292 | 32.9%96 W · 196 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3545…741dbacked Yes | 60c | 975.13$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed No | 35c | 847.27$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.05 | 215 | 42.8%92 W · 123 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1a…bf3abacked Yes | 80c | 835$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…8f99backed Yes | 64c | 781.25$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.25 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed No | 35c | 600$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 96 | 18.8%18 W · 78 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed No | 36c | 591.57$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.96 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x377c…91aebacked No | 19c | 570.51$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.72 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 74c | 550$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.7 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7865…4af9backed No | 38c | 526.32$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 125 | 25.6%32 W · 93 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c7e…3748backed Yes | 63c | 512.27$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.54 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…b56bbacked Yes | 63c | 505.92$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 65cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e26…14fdbacked Yes | 64c | 356.12$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0f…a318backed No | 41c | 300$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6f…80adbacked Yes | 63c | 300$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 61c | 300$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 236 | 22%52 W · 184 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb5…6530backed Yes | 65c | 268.08$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.83 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 102 | 63.7%65 W · 37 L | +11.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed No | 35c | 204.87$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.7 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca43…b369backed Yes | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 311 | 56.6%176 W · 135 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e37…03d2backed No | 38c | 199.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…50c9backed Yes | 65c | 187.82$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.82 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…f0c8backed Yes | 59c | 170$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.7 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…d4d8backed Yes | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 62c | 164.65$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.57 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | -6.5wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c6…5fc0backed No | 38c | 162.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.94 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6695…6f1abacked Yes | 64c | 155.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.05 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0e…9012backed Yes | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +82%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8aea…c5f2backed No | 15c | 148.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe505…fadbbacked No | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…7f7bbacked Yes | 63c | 111.11$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.11 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Yes | 62c | 104.84$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.84 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Yes | 63c | 104.46$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.46 | 431 | 45.2%195 W · 236 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…0220backed Yes | 62c | 100.73$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 326 | 29.1%95 W · 231 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8643…85b2backed Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x385a…08d1backed No | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5edf…2f34backed Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +35%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…65e1backed No | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +4.7wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed No | 31c | 92.37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.21 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…7c47backed Yes | 67c | 89.55$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 263 | 54.8%144 W · 119 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd561…9423backed Yes | 63c | 88.79$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00c0…dfeebacked Yes | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked No | 39c | 75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x944e…7f73backed Yes | 62c | 72.58$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.58 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 360 | 38.1%137 W · 223 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf112…21ebbacked Yes | 62c | 63.22$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.72 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a64…cd34backed Yes | 74c | 62.14$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked Yes | 65c | 61.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 47 | 68.1%32 W · 15 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yes | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 170 | 50.6%86 W · 84 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked No | 38c | 55.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1654…4f2cbacked Yes | 63c | 53.55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb7…95b2backed Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc48d…8a40backed Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbab8…6485backed No | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83a7…12ddbacked No | 38c | 49.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Yes | 63c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 89 | 32.6%29 W · 60 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a66…5b12backed Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe782…e7d9backed Yes | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbed9…bbd3backed Yes | 62c | 27.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +4.1wins | +0.17per pick | 62cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x12c1…1fc1backed Yes | 65c | 21.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02f0…ab20backed Yes | 63c | 20.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1181…509abacked Yes | 63c | 18.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Wales win on 2025-09-04?this page
- Will Kazakhstan vs. Wales end in a draw?No won
- Will Kazakhstan win on 2025-09-04?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.